It's the end of an action-packed and somewhat tumultuous first year of a young and vigorous new president who promised change, as well as a legislative body swollen by Democratic majorities. Already there are some "year in review" articles worth checking out, Time's Mark Halperin has a great review of Obama's 2009 here in which he explores 5 things the administration is doing well and 5 things they're not. Also Marc Ambinder has a 2009 mea culpa that is also worth the read.
For the administration I would say that 2009 definitely turned out to be tougher than they thought it would be when they took office in January. Although they had to know it was going to be harder getting absolutely everything they wanted, especially to match Obama's lofty rhetoric; I don't think anyone could've predicted how quickly Washington descended back into partisan trench warfare after the inauguration. Quite surprising was how swiftly (or deftly) the shrunken GOP minority fell in line behind their leadership as a party of near unanimous opposition to the new administration. I think the one big mistake Obama made was to grant so many strategic deferments to congress and allowing his unpopular party allies in congress to do all of the heavy lifting on his ambitious legislative agenda, although it might assuage congressional ego's, it may have also been the move that started his downward approval decline this year. Voters don't like watching the ugly congressional law creating process, and allowing such a huge (and nearly year long) public arena for health care reform, and little action on people's main concern: the economy, could cause Obama to take a year or more to return to healthier polling numbers (if at all.)
2009 saw congress at the least capable of still doing it's job, but people like watching their elected officials cooperate and they got none of that this year. Republicans showed political smarts by threatening a fillibuster and forcing Democrats to get 60 votes on every single issue, causing their demoestic agenda to be delayed at every turn and short circuiting the already glacial pace of work in the Senate. House Republicans followed suit and forced tough, party line votes, and set up numerous moderate Democrats for hard re-election fights and in many cases made them choose between their party leadership and their constituents, a spot no Freshman or Sophomore lawmaker ever wants to be.
Republicans were declared dead in December and January of '08 and '09, but the rise of the "tea party" movement and the larger megaphone given to conservative TV hosts such as Glenn Beck breathed new life into their party's base, however, the defining fight of 2010 for Republicans is going to be how easily they can reconcile their moderate and conservative wings and brand a cohesive message that resonates with the country. Especially since the Republican party as a whole is still generally very unpopular.
The Democrats, after the ecstacy they experienced at the beginning of the year, fell fast to Earth amidst party infighting, finger pointing, and nervous bedwetting that is stereotypical for their party and unsavory to voters who trusted them to save the economy and restore prosperity. At this point, they can only pray that their legislative gambles all pay off, their dynamic new president recovers from a bruising year, and the economy shows some sort of dramatic improvement, or they're going to be the ones doing the obstruction to a new majority in 2011.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Senate Passes Health Care Bill 60-39, Merry Christmas Eve!
After weeks of intense debates and a number of moments that looked like the whole thing might unravel, the senate passed their version of the health care bill this morning in a 60-39 vote strictly along party lines. The next step in passing health care reform legislation will be to combine the senate bill with the more liberal house bill, and then have another vote on the combined bill in both the house and senate.
So health care reform is still not a done deal. Liberals and conservatives will continue to fight over issues like the public option, abortion funding, and the cost of reform. Winning the votes of conservative democrats will still be key to passing the final bill, which means President Obama and the rest of the democratic party will still be hamstrung by the ideals of politicians like Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson.
But passing health care bills in both the house and senate is a historic event, and it could be that the democratic party as a whole will realize when it comes down to the final vote that it's more important to pass any health care reform bill rather than a "perfect" health care reform bill.
So health care reform is still not a done deal. Liberals and conservatives will continue to fight over issues like the public option, abortion funding, and the cost of reform. Winning the votes of conservative democrats will still be key to passing the final bill, which means President Obama and the rest of the democratic party will still be hamstrung by the ideals of politicians like Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson.
But passing health care bills in both the house and senate is a historic event, and it could be that the democratic party as a whole will realize when it comes down to the final vote that it's more important to pass any health care reform bill rather than a "perfect" health care reform bill.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Democrats losing support on health care reform
David Axelrod went on the defense this morning on behalf of the White House as calls from the left have sprung up in the last 2 days to kill the senate health care bill. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean has emerged as the health care reform bill’s latest foe in the days since Joe Lieberman announced that he would not vote for a bill that included a public option or provisions for the expansion of Medicare.
With both the left and the right now rallying to end the health care reform effort, the clock is ticking as congress attempts to get something passed before Christmas. If the Senate does not succeed, congress may not have a second chance at this issue as public support for health care reform continues to plummet.
With both the left and the right now rallying to end the health care reform effort, the clock is ticking as congress attempts to get something passed before Christmas. If the Senate does not succeed, congress may not have a second chance at this issue as public support for health care reform continues to plummet.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
It's Joe's world, we all just live in it
At the beginning of the congressional session earlier this year, when Barack Obama was president-elect and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was staring at an impressive 59 votes in his caucus, he was just shy of that magical 60 he would only get when Sen. Arlen Specter switched parties three months later.
Reid and the President-elect knew it was going to be a rough legislative year, Obama was packing his White House with plenty of capitol hill veterans who knew exactly what kind of congressional muscle it was going to take to tackle their ambitious four-fold agenda of health care, regulatory reform, cap-and-trade, and education, he knew his mostly progressive ambitions would neccessitate lock-step party unity and he knew he would have to scramble for every vote. Just one little thing had to be settled, the same thing that seems as if it still needs to be settled: Sen. Joe Lieberman.
Lieberman, a Moderate Independent who had caucused with the Democrats (and gave them their one vote majority in the 110th congress,) had campaigned vigorously for the Republican candidate in the 2008 election and had time and time again heaped scorn on his colleagues and their party's standard bearer. When the dust had settled after Novemeber and anti-Republican sentiment amidst the global financial crises had handed the Democrats huge congressional majorities and the White House, one would assume that with 58 solid votes in the caucus they could afford to cast away Lieberman away and strip him of his coveted chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security Committee. Instead, Obama, in the very brief era of good feelings that followed his election and inauguration decided to let bygones be bygones and let Lieberman keep his chairmanship and his senior status amongst the newly enlarged Democratic caucus. Besides, lots of things are said in the heated politcal drama of Presidential elections, let's not be too hasty. Plus, why be satisfied with 58 votes, when you can have 59 and a grateful committee chair who you would now think would feel as if he owes you one.
Well today, as you can see in a story in today's New York Times Joe Lieberman is at it again, almost single handedly derailing weeks of compromise, concessions, deals and negotiations on President Obama's signature domestic issue: health care. Enraging his Democratic colleagues who are now scrambling to find a compromise to the compromise and ensure that this far down the road and so close to the finish line, the entire thing doesn't just fall apart. Lieberman showed that he relishes this new found power and that he is truly loving every minute of it. He is happiest when he is at the political apex, and though Democrats are white hot with anger at him, he knows they still need him, and is ready and willing to play that game.
It's also dangerous ground to tread for Mr. Lieberman, voters in his state overwhelmingly support health care reform, a public option, and medicare expansion. The latter two were gutted out of the bill at his bidding, and he seems ready to ask for even more as the negotiations continue to get into the 11th hour.
President Obama will play the role of the closer today, he summoned the whole Democratic caucus to the White House today for a rare all-hands-on deck meeting on his territory, trying his best to manage a compromise that can get the 60 votes neccessary to pass, most likely asking his more progressive party members to swallow hard and remember how historic it would be for the even-the-much-more-moderate bill to finally become law. Will Joe get everything that he wants? Probably. Will The President pull him aside and give him a private audience to strike a deal? I wouldn't bet on that one, Lieberman will be lucky if some lowly staff member doesn't try and trip him on the way out.
Reid and the President-elect knew it was going to be a rough legislative year, Obama was packing his White House with plenty of capitol hill veterans who knew exactly what kind of congressional muscle it was going to take to tackle their ambitious four-fold agenda of health care, regulatory reform, cap-and-trade, and education, he knew his mostly progressive ambitions would neccessitate lock-step party unity and he knew he would have to scramble for every vote. Just one little thing had to be settled, the same thing that seems as if it still needs to be settled: Sen. Joe Lieberman.
Lieberman, a Moderate Independent who had caucused with the Democrats (and gave them their one vote majority in the 110th congress,) had campaigned vigorously for the Republican candidate in the 2008 election and had time and time again heaped scorn on his colleagues and their party's standard bearer. When the dust had settled after Novemeber and anti-Republican sentiment amidst the global financial crises had handed the Democrats huge congressional majorities and the White House, one would assume that with 58 solid votes in the caucus they could afford to cast away Lieberman away and strip him of his coveted chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security Committee. Instead, Obama, in the very brief era of good feelings that followed his election and inauguration decided to let bygones be bygones and let Lieberman keep his chairmanship and his senior status amongst the newly enlarged Democratic caucus. Besides, lots of things are said in the heated politcal drama of Presidential elections, let's not be too hasty. Plus, why be satisfied with 58 votes, when you can have 59 and a grateful committee chair who you would now think would feel as if he owes you one.
Well today, as you can see in a story in today's New York Times Joe Lieberman is at it again, almost single handedly derailing weeks of compromise, concessions, deals and negotiations on President Obama's signature domestic issue: health care. Enraging his Democratic colleagues who are now scrambling to find a compromise to the compromise and ensure that this far down the road and so close to the finish line, the entire thing doesn't just fall apart. Lieberman showed that he relishes this new found power and that he is truly loving every minute of it. He is happiest when he is at the political apex, and though Democrats are white hot with anger at him, he knows they still need him, and is ready and willing to play that game.
It's also dangerous ground to tread for Mr. Lieberman, voters in his state overwhelmingly support health care reform, a public option, and medicare expansion. The latter two were gutted out of the bill at his bidding, and he seems ready to ask for even more as the negotiations continue to get into the 11th hour.
President Obama will play the role of the closer today, he summoned the whole Democratic caucus to the White House today for a rare all-hands-on deck meeting on his territory, trying his best to manage a compromise that can get the 60 votes neccessary to pass, most likely asking his more progressive party members to swallow hard and remember how historic it would be for the even-the-much-more-moderate bill to finally become law. Will Joe get everything that he wants? Probably. Will The President pull him aside and give him a private audience to strike a deal? I wouldn't bet on that one, Lieberman will be lucky if some lowly staff member doesn't try and trip him on the way out.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Obama still losing out on the economy
In spite of Obama's recent jobs summit and news that the worst of the recession is over, the public continues to show dissatisfaction with Obama's efforts to improve the economy. With his approval ratings now at all time low, a conversation is brewing within the Democratic Party over whether to spend money on job creation or wait to pay down the deficit. According to an article in the NYTimes today, it seems for now Democrats are planning to talk up deficit reduction in 2010 but will hold off on any serious action until after midterm elections.
Even today, the president's chief economic advisor Larry Summers announced that he is predicting that the U.S. will see job growth by this spring. While Summers' outlook on the economy seems upbeat, a fantastic op-ed by Paul Krugman attempts to outline how many jobs must actually be created to get the economy back to where it was. Krugman, who is decidedly less optimistic than Summers, predicts another 5+ years of slow recovery.
Also, the slowdown in progress on the healthcare bill that was supposed to be complete by Christmas but now may be finalized closer to Valentine's Day has given the media an opportunity to look back at the effectiveness of Obama's stimulus package. Matt Taibbi wrote a particularly scathing feature article for Rolling Stone in which he accuses Obama of more or less being in bed with Wall Street. A video narrated by Taibbi summarizing the article can also be found here.
Even today, the president's chief economic advisor Larry Summers announced that he is predicting that the U.S. will see job growth by this spring. While Summers' outlook on the economy seems upbeat, a fantastic op-ed by Paul Krugman attempts to outline how many jobs must actually be created to get the economy back to where it was. Krugman, who is decidedly less optimistic than Summers, predicts another 5+ years of slow recovery.
Also, the slowdown in progress on the healthcare bill that was supposed to be complete by Christmas but now may be finalized closer to Valentine's Day has given the media an opportunity to look back at the effectiveness of Obama's stimulus package. Matt Taibbi wrote a particularly scathing feature article for Rolling Stone in which he accuses Obama of more or less being in bed with Wall Street. A video narrated by Taibbi summarizing the article can also be found here.
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