Obama's budget

Well the Southern California Bereau of LandJpolitics is now back in action since Time Warner finally decided to come out and fix the internet connection, so I don't have to try and sneak on here and make updates at work.
It's been a busy week for the White House this week, Obama held his fiscal responsibility summit on Monday and on Tuesday he gave his well received non-state of the union speech before congress, Thursday he released his budget, and Friday and he announced his plans for the drawdown of the Iraq War.
Each of these things have had polarizing results for his administration, and conservatives are howling over his extremely ambitious budget proposals, which is the greatest activation of the Federal Government since at least Johnson, but is also being compared to FDR in it's bolder moments.
The budget lays out his plans over the next 10 years, showing that everything done now has long term affects and begins to lay the groundwork for universal health care as well as entitlement reform, a final end to the Iraq War, and a slashing of the Federal Deficit, something that has spiraled out of control over the past 8 years. The budget also assumes that the economy will begin improving in 2010 and many of the new revenue into his budget plans are based on this assumption. Revenue to pay for these ambitious plans, which some say are still underfunded, will come from the eventual drawdown of the Iraq War, new tax increases for Americans making over $250,000 a year as well as a cap and trade tax on emissions and new taxes on energy.
Many liberals have praised Obama's new budget as a sober response not only to America's deepening financial crisis, but a very good start to achieving universal health care in the United States. While conservatives have panned it, calling it "Robin Hood" economics and saying that his projections for economic recovery are very overstated, and the labels of Obama as a "tax and spender" are already coming in.
My thoughts are that Obama has taken a huge gamble here, (gamble is an understatement) basically betting the future of his administration on the projection outlines in this budget. His left of center policy outlines have placed him squarely in the sights of the Republicans and he's probably going to be facing some very Clintonesque fights with conservatives over spending and taxes over the coming months and years. Any hopes for achieving any bipartisan kumbaya in the near future are pretty much slim to none.
Just like the effectiveness of the stimulus package, this budget not only bets the future of the Obama Administration, but the Democratic Party as a whole has now gone all in. LBJ, who enacted simlarly ambitious spending programs through a friendly congress, created a backlash against the liberal left in the years that followed his great society programs and ultimately caused the democrats to only win the white house 3 times in the next 10 elections and made the word "liberal" a bad word in American politics for a whole generation.
The President is treading dangerous ground here, if his plans are successful, the comparisons to FDR will be deserved, however, if he fails, Obama will be more of a bad word to the Democrats than Jimmy Carter and will leave America wide open to a new Conservative realignment ala Reagan in 1980, except this time America may be too bankrupt to recover fully.

Jindal's response

Reading Bobby Jindal's response to Obama's tuesday speech showed that it was everything the Republicans needed it to be, it attacked spending and it attacked more taxes and it displayed the story of a new and upcoming star within the GOP with a familiar and stunning backstory of his own.
Watching it, however, was something completely different.
Anyone who has to go after The President is already at a disadvantage, there's no applause, no regal surroundings, no dignified sea of the entire American body politic, just that person, a backdrop, and a camera. Gov. Jindal, who was by and large introducing himself to the American public, had big shoes to fill. Unfortuntely, his delivery was off kilter and he seemed stilted and passionless and anyone revved up from the President's speech may have just simply turned off their TV when the governor took the stage.
Republicans were really hoping for (not to mention needed) a barnburner here, being picked for the rebuttal to any State Of The Union is a high honor for any member of the opposition party, and the Democrats for the past few years have had the luxury of delivering their response to a largely unpopular president and to an American public that was hungry for a dissenting opinion. Luckily for Jindal, who's Presidential amitions are well known, he has many years ahead of him to bide his time.

Obama makes a plea to banks to start lending again...

Obama explains the need to act now

He makes a bi-partisan appeal by saying that he doesn't want and big government, but he has no other choice. He's announcing that he's got a plan to create 3.5 million jobs. And we'll all see a tax cut in our paychecks April 1st. The address continues to have a pep rally vibe. John McCain is smiling at him. I think Obama is on fire! Joe Biden just got a standing ovation.. Who'd have thought you'd see so many beaming faces on a night when the news was so supposed to grave? The political theater tonight is in high gear.

Outlining his speech tonight

Energy
Healthcare
Education
Jobs

Obama is using a lot of "we" language tonight, which harkens back to his inaugural theme "An Era of Responsibility." He could be blaming the Bush administration right now, I think he's making a smart move by not playing the blame game. Basically, his message is: the past happened. Let's make a plan and fixed it.

Obama studies FDR's fireside chats

in preparation for this address. He's using remarkably plain and pointed language to get his point across. He says times are tough, but America will emerge stronger than we were before. He gets a standing ovation. Critics were encouraging Obama to bring back his hopeful language from the campaign, it looks like he is indeed bringing back the hope tonight.

Obama is greeted to enthusiastic applause.

Some members of congress are said to have arrived as early as 8AM to grab a seat in hopes that they would appear on tv shaking Obama's hand. Obama is beaming. So far, this congressional speech has a pep rally vibe..

OK, let's get this show on the road! Mama has to leave at 6:30...

LIve blogging Obama's congressional address

Here we go!

And the winner is....Gary Locke?

Today an announcement was made by the Obama administration that their third (and hopefully final) choice for commerce secretary is the popular former governor of Washington State, Gary Locke. While in office, Locke was recognized as a moderate who was never known for being particularly partisan. Locke's nomination marks the third Washingtonian to garner a major cabinet position in the Obama administration. King County Executive Ron Sims was nominated to the post of Deputy Secretary of HUD earlier this month, while Seattle police chief Gil Kerlikowske was tapped to become the federal 'drug czar.'

So does this mean that Washington is an up and coming state? Watch out, California!

GOP looks to the past for future strategy

Remember the '90's? Democrats sure do, their 2008 landslide wins can be accredited to a young, fresh faced and ambitious politician coming from nowhere and promising change and relief for a struggling middle class in the face of an economic slowdown and an unpopular incumbent party.
Sound familiar?
All we needed were Ross Perot's charts.
So if the Democrats can bulldoze their way back to power with 16 year old strategies, why can't the Republicans? After all, just this last month has seen scenes that could've been taken right from Newt Gingrich's '94 "Contract With America" playbook.
Politico has a good piece about what may come next for the struggling GOP.
First off, Republicans are becoming a stone wall, unamiously sounding off and rejecting nearly everything that comes out of the Obama White House and the Democratic Congress. Although this is also brought about by two election cycles that have driven them into their most conservative caucuses, all but eliminating any moderate Republicans in the House. This was also a very similar strategy that Gingrich deployed: block and counter on any big spending ideas, block health care reform and try their darndest to portray all on the left as big government-loving spendocrats who would rather fund NPR than pay for road construction.
Will this strategy work? Maybe. But Obama ain't Clinton, and both sides have learned their lessons from those hyper-partisan years.
Obama enjoys general public support for his spending programs, high approval ratings, even larger congressional majorities than clinton first enjoyed, and now more than ever there is a sense among many Americans that universal health care is not the bogeyman that conservatives have tried to make it. Health care reform ranks just past the current economy and national security as the public's most major concern. Also unlike Clinton, Obama is crafting his health care package within the halls of the legislature, instead of a closed-door coalition headed by the first lady, it seems that health care reform will be fleshed out on the floor of the capitol just like any other bill.
The GOP is also not in as much of a position to be on the rise and congressional democrats, who've controlled the hill for two years now still enjoy slightly higher approval ratings than their counterparts, and Republican is still to some, a bad word.
However, the more things change the more they stay the same, and if Democrats stay Democrats and the legislation is seen as too liberal or "socialistic," as prominent GOP members are hoping, and they lose the support of the general publlic, then it opens up the road for a series of legislative embarassments and a potentially chaotic white house that could cripple a popular presiden't image. Now that all of us 90's kids can appreciate.

GOP governors oppose stimulus aid

In the midst of the GOP identity crisis, some GOP governors (notably a few with national political ambitions such LA gov Bobby Jindal and Alaska gov Sarah Palin) have taken a turn to the right and are vowing to reject federal stimulus funding on behalf of their states. There is a quite a risk in taking an such a blatantly ideological stance against the stimulus, but as up and coming republicans take a stab at grabbing for the national torch and redefining the republican party, going big certainly makes a greater splash than moving center to better align with the moderates. These governors are keeping their fingers crossed that the stimulus will fail, we just have to sit back and see what happens...

California budget deadlock ends with one Republican vote

California, the largest, and arguably the most liberal state (and proud home to 50% of the owner's of this blog) has finally passed it's state budget for the fiscal year 2009. The arguments over the budget sounded eerily similar to those shouted by both sides during the arguments for and against the economic stimulus package that passed last week.
Democrats (who have the majority in both the California Senate and California Assembly) were unanimous in their support of the bill, and Republicans unanimous in their opposition, the blueprint for which was outlined by Califnornia's moderate Republican Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. The problem in fixing the state's $40 Billion deficit was that Republicans would not budge on approving tax increases to fund the gap, and Democrats would not budge on cutting funding for the state's Medical program, education and other government subsidized programs. This created a deadlock that lasted for nearly 3 months, and it took the governor threatening to lay off almost 20,000 government employees for the state senate to finally act.
The Democrats made sure that all the local papers knew that they only needed one vote for the budget to pass, and they demonized Republicans as tight fisted, cold hearted misers that would rather watch people lose their jobs than act for the benefit of the state.
It was one lone Republican, Abel Moldonado, who crossed the aisle and cast his vote in favor of the budget, and his vote came at a compromise: allow for open primaries in statewide elections, and remove a $.12 tax on gasoline that had been added in the final budget.
Moldonado even admitted that voting for the budget (which included tax increases on vehicle excise taxes) may have cost him his political future in his heaviliy conservative district and quoted on the senate floor: "This might be the end for me, but this vote ensures that it's not the end for the state of California. I'm asking for an aye vote."
This brings to mind that which is the fatal flaw in California's State Congress, a gerrymandered congressional district system that heavily favors the incumbent and keeps the California Senate virtually locked at a perpetual number that discourages compromise and fosters a partisan political spectrum in which moderates and swing voters are few and far between.
Until this system is fixed and the drafting of congressional districts are written by non-partisan citizen committees, then California will continue to have these same problems and the citizens of California can expect further inaction from a State Senate that places ideology and ambition over a sense of cooperation.

Kathleen Sebelius for Health Secretary

Kansas Governor and all-around democratic darling Kathleen Sebelius looks to be President Obama's top pick for Health and Human Services Secretary. Gov. Sebelius has a history of being heavily involved in revamping the Medicaid system in Kansas. She is known for being adept at negotiating across party lines and is a popular democratic governor in a mostly red state.

As Obama looks to finally fill out his cabinet and get started on his universal healthcare program, Kathleen Sebelius appears to be a strong pick. Let's hope she's all paid up on her taxes too...

Predictions for 2010 Senate Races

Adam Nagourney of the NYTimes did a write up on an interview with democratic Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey.

Menendez predicts that the dems will have no problem picking up seats from the 5 states where sitting GOP senators will be retiring: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Kansas, and New Hampshire.

The democrats are banking on the idea that Americans will continue to blame George W. Bush for the current state of the nation. He may still be fresh in the minds of many Americans only one month since Obama has taken office, but will they still be pointing the finger at him 18 months from now? As Nagourney mentions in his piece, Bush has kept an extemely low profile since leaving office. I imagine that GOP leaders will be highly encouraging him to remain under the radar for the entirety of Obama's first term.

no more car-czar

Obama announced today that he will no longer be appointing a "car czar" to oversee the restructuring of the auto industry.

Obama fake-out

Frank Rich suggests in an interesting op-ed piece today that despite the media chatter about the stimulus package and some talking heads already declaring Obama's presidency a total failure, that Obama actually came out of this week one step ahead of the game.

Rich reasons that because the stimulus package doesn't seem like it will be enough to really turn the economy around, Obama can now point back at the compromised stimulus only 3 weeks into his presidency and claim that he took a stab at bi-partisanship and it didn't work when he goes to work setting other parts of his agenda.

I wonder if this strategy actually has any merit? As Rich points out, over the course of the campaign there were a number of times when it seemed like Obama was down and he seemed to turn lemons into lemonade. I guess we will have to wait and see.

Obama & Lincoln in cupcakes

Not exactly hard-hitting commentary, but if you thought Obama made your mouth water before:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/14/tastiest-obama-lincoln-comparison-ever/

The Democrats and Republicans put their temporary political futures on the line

The newest version of the stimulus bill passed the house with zero Republican votes (again) and 7 Democratic defectors, it then went to the Senate where all but three Republicans voted against it, and the white house, sensing the urgency of the moment, even had Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio flown from his mother's wake to Washington to cast his vote.
And so it is that President Obama and his new super-majority congress wrote their future only 3 weeks into his administration.
The Washington Post weighs in here for the first time since the great depression, it is now almost completely up to the federal government to rescue the economy.

Pelosi get's rolled

One of my favorite stories to be released last night amidst the obviously heated House v. Senate negotiations in the wake of the stimulus bill passing is this little tidbit reported by Glenn Thrush from Politico on his blog on 'hill intrigue,' (a fabulous read for anyone who can't get enough Capitol Hill gossip and wheeling and dealing.)
Apparently Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who appointed himself as the man to shepherd last night's 'shotgun' negotiations between the house and the senate, appeared before camera's last night announcing a deal had been made when, according to house staffers, Pelosi had not signed off yet due to a disagreement over school funding.
It's been very interesting watching the majority party operate these past few weeks, without the Bush Administration and a stronger Republican Party as their foil, the authority to frame their political agenda and shope policy, despite some compromises and give-and-take, rests solely on their shoulders and there's no question as to who's in charge.

Tomorrow's stimulus vote and the message war

It's clear that Republicans won the stimulus bill media rampage brouhaha last week with their chief message about how wasteful and unneccessary much of the spending in the bill would be seeping into the national consciousness and causing a conservative media revolt against Obama's plan. They have clearly bet that Obama's plan will not work, have drawn a line in the sand, and are crossing their fingers and awaiting that giant "I told you so" moment they believe will inevitably bring America back to them in two or four years. Today's hidden message is not that "it's the economy stupid," but that it's "the next election, stupid." Both sides think their right, and it's literally, only time that will tell.
Obama took his case straight to the American people today, his administration vowing not to lose another message battle and taking full advantage of the Presidential bully pulpit today. His mission is simply to make sure that his powerful oratory, high approval ratings, and ability to roadblock primetime telivision to carry his message will cripple Republican opposition and make them seem more and more like a fringe party cowtowing to the rants of Rush Limbaugh.
Although this doesn't mean that bipartisanship is truly dead, it still took 3 moderate Republicans (albeit from generally liberal states) to get to tonight's cloture vote in the senate that ended deliberation on the stimulus bill. During Obama's press conference, also, despite the many times he repeated that Republicans and the Bush Administration are responsible for the current crisis, he alluded that he will continue to try and foster support amongst Republicans for this and future projects, and wants to continue to create a good working relationship amongst the minority party in both houses of congress -- maybe as an exit strategy, because he knows that if this isn't sucessful and Republicans make larger gains in the 2010 midterm elections, he's going to need to call in a lot of favors. Obama also is holding another town hall meeting tomorrow, and this time he'll be introduced by a popular Republican governor that endorsed his rival in last year's election, but also desperately needs the money that the stimulus bill will bring to his cash strapped state.
The bill will be brought bring to a final floor vote tomorrow afternoon. There were many large concessions by Democrats under pressure from both Republicans and the administration to curtail anything that could be regarded as a liberal pet project. The bill will pass so anything they do is also purely a symbolic gesture as this bill will most certainly pass along party lines.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will pitch his own battle in the message war tomorrow, introducing his plan to spend the final remains of the drastically unpopular $350 Billion TARP money that was approved by congress last October, and unlike Obama, he doesn't have the approval ratings to back him up.

Stimulus package blues

Tonight President Obama will give a national address during primetime and make an appeal to the American people that the economic stimulus package needs to be passed immediately. It seems like Obama can't let go of his campaign mode, instead of getting congress to get things done he's going back to what he does best, which is speaking to the public.

I think Obama over-promised his power to change the culture of Washington and Americans who just wanted to see G.W. go got the impression that sweeping change would happen immediately. I guess that's bound to happen when your campaign slogan is "Change You Can Believe In..."

Democratic doldrums

Congressional democrats are leaving for a party retreat tomorrow in Williamsburg, VA, and who would've thought two weeks ago that it would be anything but a triumphant affair. The 111th congress has a comfortable and commanding Democratic majority, as well as a sympathetic white house and a country that generically favors their party, the stimulus bill passed without a single Republican vote and it looked like Obama's rock star cabinet was going to breeze through confirmations.
So why aren't they on top of the world?
Yesterday Obama appeared on five different networks in complete damage control mode (two days after a much cooler Obama appeared on NBC before the super bowl and waved off any allegations that this would be a tough week) to basically fall on his sword on behalf of his colleague Tom Daschle as well as to try and trumpet any fleeting support for his stimulus bill.
He summed it up in three words: "I screwed up."
Although there is something to be said for a president that is willing to admit blame and take responsibility for his actions on network TV. These three words will haunt Democrats for a while, and these three words will most likely give Republicans more gumption to step up their guerilla warfare against the stimulus package, as well as anything and everything Obama, gaining confidence after winning the message war this week and watching a fledgling Obama Administration continue to get it's sea legs may mean more, instead of less bitter partisanship as the minority party continues to place itself in firm opposition.

Daschle bows out, another disappointment for Obama

Obama lost two of his nominees for cabinet positions today to troubles with taxes. Both Nancy Killefer and more notably, Tom Daschle. So far Obama's attempt to change the tone of Washington has been undermined by infighting among the Democrats and the usual fighting between parties. Nominating three different people who haven't paid their taxes doesn't exactly hail in a new "Era of Responsibility" either. I think congress and members of his own cabinet have put Obama's power to enact change into question and left him looking like a hypocrite.

So what is he going to do? Obama's approval rating has gone way down this week, is he going to be able to get his groove back or is the honeymoon just over? Hopefully, he has not gone through all the trouble of bringing the country together so that we can be collectively let down.

Obama has it his way

Eric Holder was confirmed today as Attorney General.
And it looks like Tom Daschle will likely be confirmed as the head of the Health & Human Services Department.