Wednesday, November 26, 2008
The Obamas continue to charm the pants off of American public
Barack and Michelle Obama did an interview tonight with Barbara Walters. Barack wipes lipstick off of his wife's tooth on camera. Michelle Obama talks about why she's ok with giving up her career. The two argue in a lovey dovey way. Although Barack Obama answered some serious questions about his priorities as president and his cabinet choices at the beginning of the interview, it's this this domestic, back-to-camelot, first family stuff that Americans seem to be thriving on. And why not? The world is a scary place right now. If Michelle Obama is relaxed enough to rib her husband on national tv, then maybe it will remind Americans that even when the economy stinks, there are still joys to be had in American life.
Did Hillary get punked?
The Daily Gotham has some interesting analysis about why Obama picked Hillary to be his SOS.
It makes Obama's choice seem a little nefarious and cold blooded (they may well have been) but it's still a great read nonetheless.
It makes Obama's choice seem a little nefarious and cold blooded (they may well have been) but it's still a great read nonetheless.
Obama and the markets
Each day this week Obama has held press conferences about the current economic crisis, and one thing I noticed today is that whenever Obama was asked a question and hemmed and hawwed or waffled on something you could notice a slight down tick in the markets, but whenever he answered a question with confidence, the markets went up slightly. All during his brief press conferences.
Overall the markets have been up for the week.
Overall the markets have been up for the week.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Stealing a page from Ambinder's playbook
On his blog, Mark Ambinder today asked "When was the last time we saw a deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget announced by an incoming administration at a press conference? And before the naming of the secretary of state?"
This is a very good question and one I think I'd elaborate on, I think that the incoming administration is being extremely careful in the face of markets that have gone up or down based on 20 minute press conferences by the president-elect, in an attempt to calm the markets and keep positive attention on his cabinet picks, Obama is putting special emphasis on each pick as someone who has accolades in the economic world, most notably in this case, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
Obama's presser today was wildly paradoxical in some ways as he was touting both intense fiscal restraint as well as advocating deeper spending programs and more Federal involvement in dealing with the current crisis. As a way to ease Congressional Republicans and budget hawks within his own party it appears that Obama made sure a big deal was made about a known penny-pincher heading up his own White House Budget Office, in what is usually a pretty mundane job, and not usually worthy of an announcement to an assembly of the national press.
This is a very good question and one I think I'd elaborate on, I think that the incoming administration is being extremely careful in the face of markets that have gone up or down based on 20 minute press conferences by the president-elect, in an attempt to calm the markets and keep positive attention on his cabinet picks, Obama is putting special emphasis on each pick as someone who has accolades in the economic world, most notably in this case, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
Obama's presser today was wildly paradoxical in some ways as he was touting both intense fiscal restraint as well as advocating deeper spending programs and more Federal involvement in dealing with the current crisis. As a way to ease Congressional Republicans and budget hawks within his own party it appears that Obama made sure a big deal was made about a known penny-pincher heading up his own White House Budget Office, in what is usually a pretty mundane job, and not usually worthy of an announcement to an assembly of the national press.
Obama punts on "Don't ask don't tell"
In a purely political move that shows Obama will not be Clinton II, he defers on a campaign promise to repeal the "don't ask don't tell" ban on gays in the military until an "official" meeting with the Defense Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
If Obama were the one driving this issue, it could be exactly the wedge issue that conservatives can use, much as they did in '93, to discredit the incoming president as too liberal and lead to another rousting by Republicans in the midterm elections in '10. However, Obama, as a clever politician understands that if the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Department, both attempting to rebrand and contemporize the modern military push the repeal, something that has been hinted at recently, then Obama get's both a fulfillment of a campaign promise for a key Democratic Party demographic and is also able to keep his hands clean in the eyes of his more conservative supporters.
If Obama were the one driving this issue, it could be exactly the wedge issue that conservatives can use, much as they did in '93, to discredit the incoming president as too liberal and lead to another rousting by Republicans in the midterm elections in '10. However, Obama, as a clever politician understands that if the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Department, both attempting to rebrand and contemporize the modern military push the repeal, something that has been hinted at recently, then Obama get's both a fulfillment of a campaign promise for a key Democratic Party demographic and is also able to keep his hands clean in the eyes of his more conservative supporters.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Bipartisanship???
Jonathan Martin from Politico has a smart piece about Obama's new cabinet, and the lack of Republican names being floated for key positions.
Aside from Robert Gates, the current Secretary of Defense, almost no Republicans have either been named or speculated on as being included in Obama's cabinet, depsite promises from Obama throught the campaign to "bridge the partisan divide" and include Republicans and conservatives in his circle of advisors.
The announcement this morning of Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers as his Treasury Secretary and Head Economic advisor respectfully, show that Obama will root his plans for economic recovery with center-left pragmatism much in the same way that Bill Clinton tackled a simlar, though less drastic, problem in the early 90's. In fact it could be seen that Obama is ripping a page right out of Clinton's playbook, stacking his cabinet and white house with many Clinton-era leftovers and building his economic recovery message much in the same way Clinton did in '93-'94. Whether the same plans will work this time is left to be seen, as a lot of the dregulation and free-market principles of the 90's are seen by some as the genesis of our current credit and housing crises.
The first test of Obama's economic council may be undoing and correcting some of the same problems and mistakes that some in conservative circles blame them for creating to begin with.
Aside from Robert Gates, the current Secretary of Defense, almost no Republicans have either been named or speculated on as being included in Obama's cabinet, depsite promises from Obama throught the campaign to "bridge the partisan divide" and include Republicans and conservatives in his circle of advisors.
The announcement this morning of Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers as his Treasury Secretary and Head Economic advisor respectfully, show that Obama will root his plans for economic recovery with center-left pragmatism much in the same way that Bill Clinton tackled a simlar, though less drastic, problem in the early 90's. In fact it could be seen that Obama is ripping a page right out of Clinton's playbook, stacking his cabinet and white house with many Clinton-era leftovers and building his economic recovery message much in the same way Clinton did in '93-'94. Whether the same plans will work this time is left to be seen, as a lot of the dregulation and free-market principles of the 90's are seen by some as the genesis of our current credit and housing crises.
The first test of Obama's economic council may be undoing and correcting some of the same problems and mistakes that some in conservative circles blame them for creating to begin with.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Will the bad economy prevent Obama from achieving the goals he put forth in his campaign platform?
The NYTimes reports today that president-elect Obama may choose not to roll-back the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy. Instead, he may opt to just let the tax cuts expire in 2011. This story may offer a hint at the limits of what Obama can really accomplish during his first four years. Will he really be able to implement change, or will he have to forego his plans and just try to hold down the economy?
Thursday, November 20, 2008
More cabinet positions
I think the rapid fire drumming out of cabinet positions that the Obama campaign has announced recently should actually be surprising to a lot of people in a way that I don't think has really caught on.
Historically these positions don't generally get announced until at least December, but Obama has structured the key elements of his cabinet just shy of three weeks after getting elected. Something that tells me these wheels have been in motion for a long time.
With powerful posts like Director of Homeland Security and Attorney General showing heavy speculation already and an obsessed media craving more and more insider information, it would be a miracle if the Obama-Biden transition team were able to make one independent announcement.
The famously disciplined and tight lipped Obama campaign, has now become the leaky transition team, with nearly every move receiving intense media scrutiny. Running a campaign is not as easy as running a transition team or an administration, with hundreds of staffers, lawyers, and advisors all becoming privvy to information almost as soon as it happens, and each of them on the speed dial on some of the members of the press.
Still, if it's transparency that Obama has pledged, it doesn't get more open and transparent then this.
Historically these positions don't generally get announced until at least December, but Obama has structured the key elements of his cabinet just shy of three weeks after getting elected. Something that tells me these wheels have been in motion for a long time.
With powerful posts like Director of Homeland Security and Attorney General showing heavy speculation already and an obsessed media craving more and more insider information, it would be a miracle if the Obama-Biden transition team were able to make one independent announcement.
The famously disciplined and tight lipped Obama campaign, has now become the leaky transition team, with nearly every move receiving intense media scrutiny. Running a campaign is not as easy as running a transition team or an administration, with hundreds of staffers, lawyers, and advisors all becoming privvy to information almost as soon as it happens, and each of them on the speed dial on some of the members of the press.
Still, if it's transparency that Obama has pledged, it doesn't get more open and transparent then this.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Lieberman and Clinton
So to fill the vaccuum of recent the recent news cycle, two stories have floated to the top and are consuming most political coverage.
The first would be the mea culpa offered by Senate Democrats to their campaign nemesis Joe Lieberman, now it shouldn't come as a surprise for anyone that's seen the theme of the past couple weeks unfolding, there hasn't been an iota of retribution (that's reported) from the incoming administration against the former administration or their campaign rivals.
It bodes well for Obama, who has worked tirelessly since elected to project a transition that focuses on deliberation, caution and reconciliation, hoping to create enough good karma to have plenty of political stock going into a tough year.
Obama's going to need as many allies as possible when he begins to focus on mending the economic misfortunes of the country and delivering on the initiatives he spoke about in his campaign, and getting Joe Lieberman on his side, who also has cozied with many prominent Republicans, will make discussion at the big table a little less stressful when compromises need to be made.
The other story, probably much more prominent than the above story that has received most of the coverage and is at the front of many politico's minds is Obama's (probable, eventual?) choice of Sen. Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State, now this has already been discussed on this blog, so I'm just going to link two excellent articles that discuss this in good detail.
The first is Ben Smith from Politico's brand new story on the pick which basically goes over the pros vs. cons and sets the agenda for what the possible pick means for the future of a potentially united Democratic Party/Administration.
The second is a very poignanat article from The New York Observer that basically says in not so many words that the amount of coverage and reporting done on Hillary's potential pick is what will get her the job.
The first would be the mea culpa offered by Senate Democrats to their campaign nemesis Joe Lieberman, now it shouldn't come as a surprise for anyone that's seen the theme of the past couple weeks unfolding, there hasn't been an iota of retribution (that's reported) from the incoming administration against the former administration or their campaign rivals.
It bodes well for Obama, who has worked tirelessly since elected to project a transition that focuses on deliberation, caution and reconciliation, hoping to create enough good karma to have plenty of political stock going into a tough year.
Obama's going to need as many allies as possible when he begins to focus on mending the economic misfortunes of the country and delivering on the initiatives he spoke about in his campaign, and getting Joe Lieberman on his side, who also has cozied with many prominent Republicans, will make discussion at the big table a little less stressful when compromises need to be made.
The other story, probably much more prominent than the above story that has received most of the coverage and is at the front of many politico's minds is Obama's (probable, eventual?) choice of Sen. Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State, now this has already been discussed on this blog, so I'm just going to link two excellent articles that discuss this in good detail.
The first is Ben Smith from Politico's brand new story on the pick which basically goes over the pros vs. cons and sets the agenda for what the possible pick means for the future of a potentially united Democratic Party/Administration.
The second is a very poignanat article from The New York Observer that basically says in not so many words that the amount of coverage and reporting done on Hillary's potential pick is what will get her the job.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Hillary Clinton and the Secretary of State
This has probably been the most surprising story of the past week or so, as the media has become obsessed with the prospect of President-Elect Obama choosing her to fill probably the most vital role in his administration besides Vice President.
I'm not sure what to make of it, it clearly seems like it could easily be a story pushed by the media to fill vacant news cycles, a story churned by a press that has become bored after an extremely intense and historic campaign filled with drama and intrigue.
It could also be that Obama, who has stated "Team of Rivals" by Doris Kearns Goodwin about Lincoln's presidential cabinet as one of his influences, has taken that Lincolnesque touch seriously and would choose to keep close someone who he fought bitterly against for almost a year and more intensely for the 6 months of the primary season earlier this year.
Already news sources are churning out hints and clues, much as they did with the veep fever that consumed their coverage before the national conventions, stories about the vetting of Bill Clinton have recently popped up, a sign that Obama may be serious about adding Hillary's talents to his administration.
Granted, Obama will not be able to tackle a real foreign policy agenda throughout the first part of his administration as he will be very busy addressing the current economic crisis and the Secretary of State will probably be delegated a lot of responsibility in burnishing his image abroad, in this respect, Hillary Clinton would be a good choice as she lends a lot of name recognition and foreign policy credentials, as well as being a leading public figure. However Bill Clinton, as her spouse, would be severely restricted and probably would have to remain on a tight leash as "no-drama" Obama would not want anything to come back on him that could potentially embarrass him or his administration.
But now that this story has consumed the public spotlight it almost seems as if both Obama and Hillary have been painted into a corner. Everytime the Clintons are in the media spotlight, it becomes a reminder of their bitterly fought primary battle and media speculation abounds, and if Hillary is chosen, instead of someone less public but perhaps more qualified then he would already have to answer questions before he takes office, and will have to fight over media coverage with her inside his administration.
It also puts Hillary in a bad spot also, because she can't look like she's defying the President-elect and refusing an offer, that would look bad for both the Democratic Party and the incoming administration.
Obama has already packed his transition team with many former Clinton staffers and allies, and much of his base may not recognize this as "change" or recognize him trying to put his own stamp on his presidency.
It'll be an interesting week, Obama was tight lipped on his cabinet choices tonight on 60 minutes, and I believe there will continue to be mounting scrutiny as time goes on.
I'm not sure what to make of it, it clearly seems like it could easily be a story pushed by the media to fill vacant news cycles, a story churned by a press that has become bored after an extremely intense and historic campaign filled with drama and intrigue.
It could also be that Obama, who has stated "Team of Rivals" by Doris Kearns Goodwin about Lincoln's presidential cabinet as one of his influences, has taken that Lincolnesque touch seriously and would choose to keep close someone who he fought bitterly against for almost a year and more intensely for the 6 months of the primary season earlier this year.
Already news sources are churning out hints and clues, much as they did with the veep fever that consumed their coverage before the national conventions, stories about the vetting of Bill Clinton have recently popped up, a sign that Obama may be serious about adding Hillary's talents to his administration.
Granted, Obama will not be able to tackle a real foreign policy agenda throughout the first part of his administration as he will be very busy addressing the current economic crisis and the Secretary of State will probably be delegated a lot of responsibility in burnishing his image abroad, in this respect, Hillary Clinton would be a good choice as she lends a lot of name recognition and foreign policy credentials, as well as being a leading public figure. However Bill Clinton, as her spouse, would be severely restricted and probably would have to remain on a tight leash as "no-drama" Obama would not want anything to come back on him that could potentially embarrass him or his administration.
But now that this story has consumed the public spotlight it almost seems as if both Obama and Hillary have been painted into a corner. Everytime the Clintons are in the media spotlight, it becomes a reminder of their bitterly fought primary battle and media speculation abounds, and if Hillary is chosen, instead of someone less public but perhaps more qualified then he would already have to answer questions before he takes office, and will have to fight over media coverage with her inside his administration.
It also puts Hillary in a bad spot also, because she can't look like she's defying the President-elect and refusing an offer, that would look bad for both the Democratic Party and the incoming administration.
Obama has already packed his transition team with many former Clinton staffers and allies, and much of his base may not recognize this as "change" or recognize him trying to put his own stamp on his presidency.
It'll be an interesting week, Obama was tight lipped on his cabinet choices tonight on 60 minutes, and I believe there will continue to be mounting scrutiny as time goes on.
Barack & Michelle Obama do 60 Minutes
Well, I think it's time to thaw out the old blog. Like J. mentioned, it's frozen in a pretty awesome moment, but time marches on and the Obama presidency is too historic not to continue blogging about.
Tonight Barack and Michelle Obama did an interview with 60 Minutes. In the midst of a major economic depression, listening to the president-elect and the first lady discuss what kind of puppy to get for their children and whether or not to move Mrs. Obama's mother in to the White House was a hopeful reminder that the Obama's could relate to the American people. Michelle Obama razzing her husband for never doing the dishes and the pictures of Barack Obama's dinky Washington DC apartment seem to further seal the deal.
The tone of the interview was light hearted and fun. For those who didn't vote for Obama, I think they would have a difficult time denying the charm of this man and his young family.
Tonight Barack and Michelle Obama did an interview with 60 Minutes. In the midst of a major economic depression, listening to the president-elect and the first lady discuss what kind of puppy to get for their children and whether or not to move Mrs. Obama's mother in to the White House was a hopeful reminder that the Obama's could relate to the American people. Michelle Obama razzing her husband for never doing the dishes and the pictures of Barack Obama's dinky Washington DC apartment seem to further seal the deal.
The tone of the interview was light hearted and fun. For those who didn't vote for Obama, I think they would have a difficult time denying the charm of this man and his young family.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
CONGRATULATIONS PRESIDENT OBAMA!
And now, this blog will officially change topics. On to the Obama presidency and a new generation in American politics!
CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama
A HUGE loss for McCain, the only blue state he really stood a chance in, without Pennsylvania he has a very narrow path to victory, and the fact that they called it so early may be a sobering reminder for the McCain camp of how much the underdogs they are tonight.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Less than 12 hours to go until the nation votes, predictions
Alright so like all armchair pundits, I'm ready to make some predictions, since I don't have any glossy maps spotted with shimmering crimson and dark navy to make it look all official you'll have to use your imagination, if you want a shiny map with bold colors, go hang out with John King.
I've been following the polls extremely closely this election, with most of my data being sound and reliable, based on most of the recent polling numbers, as well as early voting numbers, historical turnout, ground operations, and party registration. With the exception of a couple toss up states that could go either way, most of these predictions are safe.
Alabama - 9 EV's - McCain + 20
Alaska - 3 EV's - McCain +15
Arizona - 10 EV's - McCain +9
Arkansas - 6 EV's - McCain +12
California - 55 EV's - Obama +23
Colorado - 9 EV's - Obama +5
Connecticut - 7 EV's - Obama + 17
District Of Columbia - 3 EV's - Obama +61
Delaware - 3 EV's - Obama + 20
Florida - 27 EV's - Obama +2
Georgia - 15 EV's - McCain +3
Hawaii - 4 EV's - Obama + 25
Idaho - 4 EV's - McCain +21
Illinois - 21 EV's - Obama +25
Indiana - 11 EV's - McCain +>1
Iowa - 7 EV's - Obama +10
Kansas - 6 EV's - McCain +14
Kentucky - 8 EV's - McCain +12
Louisiana - 9 EV's - McCain +11
Maine - 4 EV's - Obama +13
Maryland - 10 EV's - Obama +21
Massachussetts - 12 EV's - Obama +17
Michigan - 17 EV's - Obama +9
Minnesota - 10 EV's - Obama +12
Mississippi - 6 EV's - McCain +24
Missouri - 11 EV's - McCain +1
Montana - 3 EV's - McCain +4
Nebraska - 5 EV's - McCain +13
Nevada - 5 EV's - Obama +3
New Hampshire - 4 EV's - Obama +7
New Jersey - 15 EV's - Obama +16
New Mexico - 5 EV's - Obama +5
New York - 31 EV's - Obama +24
North Carolina - 15 EV's - Obama +>1
North Dakota - 3 EV's - McCain +8
Ohio - 20 EV's - Obama +2
Oklahoma - 7 EV's - McCain +25
Oregon - 7 EV's - Obama +12
Pennsylvania - 21 EV's - Obama +5
Rhode Island - 4 EV's - Obama +23
South Carolina - 8 EV's - McCain +8
South Dakota - 3 EV's McCain +9
Tennessee - 11 EV's - McCain +13
Texas - 34 EV's - McCain +10
Utah - 5 EV's - McCain + 27
Vermont - 3 EV's - Obama +22
Virginia - 13 EV's - Obama +4
Washington - 11 EV's - Obama +12
West Virgina - 5 EV's - McCain +6
Wisconsin - 10 EV's - Obama +7
Wyoming - 3 EV's - McCain + 26
Popular vote: Obama 53 - McCain 46 - Other 1
Total electoral votes: Obama 353 McCain 185
States to look out for that may be different than my predictions: Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada
Important times tomorrow night: (Pacific Time)
4:00 PM Virginia, Indiana, Georgia Polls close (Georgia and Indiana will be bellweathers for most of the night, if Obama wins either of these, expect an electoral landslide in his favor, If McCain maintains big margins here, then it will be a closer election then people originally thought)
4:30 PM Ohio Polls close
5:00 PM Pennsylvania and Florida Polls close
From here it will just be a huge wash of data for the rest of the night, but the six states I just listed will pretty much decide which way the election will go.
I've been following the polls extremely closely this election, with most of my data being sound and reliable, based on most of the recent polling numbers, as well as early voting numbers, historical turnout, ground operations, and party registration. With the exception of a couple toss up states that could go either way, most of these predictions are safe.
Alabama - 9 EV's - McCain + 20
Alaska - 3 EV's - McCain +15
Arizona - 10 EV's - McCain +9
Arkansas - 6 EV's - McCain +12
California - 55 EV's - Obama +23
Colorado - 9 EV's - Obama +5
Connecticut - 7 EV's - Obama + 17
District Of Columbia - 3 EV's - Obama +61
Delaware - 3 EV's - Obama + 20
Florida - 27 EV's - Obama +2
Georgia - 15 EV's - McCain +3
Hawaii - 4 EV's - Obama + 25
Idaho - 4 EV's - McCain +21
Illinois - 21 EV's - Obama +25
Indiana - 11 EV's - McCain +>1
Iowa - 7 EV's - Obama +10
Kansas - 6 EV's - McCain +14
Kentucky - 8 EV's - McCain +12
Louisiana - 9 EV's - McCain +11
Maine - 4 EV's - Obama +13
Maryland - 10 EV's - Obama +21
Massachussetts - 12 EV's - Obama +17
Michigan - 17 EV's - Obama +9
Minnesota - 10 EV's - Obama +12
Mississippi - 6 EV's - McCain +24
Missouri - 11 EV's - McCain +1
Montana - 3 EV's - McCain +4
Nebraska - 5 EV's - McCain +13
Nevada - 5 EV's - Obama +3
New Hampshire - 4 EV's - Obama +7
New Jersey - 15 EV's - Obama +16
New Mexico - 5 EV's - Obama +5
New York - 31 EV's - Obama +24
North Carolina - 15 EV's - Obama +>1
North Dakota - 3 EV's - McCain +8
Ohio - 20 EV's - Obama +2
Oklahoma - 7 EV's - McCain +25
Oregon - 7 EV's - Obama +12
Pennsylvania - 21 EV's - Obama +5
Rhode Island - 4 EV's - Obama +23
South Carolina - 8 EV's - McCain +8
South Dakota - 3 EV's McCain +9
Tennessee - 11 EV's - McCain +13
Texas - 34 EV's - McCain +10
Utah - 5 EV's - McCain + 27
Vermont - 3 EV's - Obama +22
Virginia - 13 EV's - Obama +4
Washington - 11 EV's - Obama +12
West Virgina - 5 EV's - McCain +6
Wisconsin - 10 EV's - Obama +7
Wyoming - 3 EV's - McCain + 26
Popular vote: Obama 53 - McCain 46 - Other 1
Total electoral votes: Obama 353 McCain 185
States to look out for that may be different than my predictions: Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada
Important times tomorrow night: (Pacific Time)
4:00 PM Virginia, Indiana, Georgia Polls close (Georgia and Indiana will be bellweathers for most of the night, if Obama wins either of these, expect an electoral landslide in his favor, If McCain maintains big margins here, then it will be a closer election then people originally thought)
4:30 PM Ohio Polls close
5:00 PM Pennsylvania and Florida Polls close
From here it will just be a huge wash of data for the rest of the night, but the six states I just listed will pretty much decide which way the election will go.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
48 hours until election day
The final 48 hours of the campaign show the RNC (some within the Republican party would say finally) going up with an advertisement featuring Obama's infamous former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, the ad is basically a greatest hits of all of Wright's now famous diatribes.
Most would conclude that since it seems to be a small buy, targeting mostly rural Pennsylvania, it was merely released so that the media would showcase this ad, and again be able to spotlight Obama's ties to the Rev. Wright just before the election. Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod said today they had an ad ready in case the Republicans ever did an ad showcasing the pastor, but that they won't release it, thinking that whatever damage this ad could cause this late into the campaign will be minimal.
Another consequence of this decision by the Republicans means that they're devoting more resources to big media buys and advertisement instead of devoting more time and money into the infrastructure of a robust GOTV effort. Many within the media believe that it was the ground game of the GOP in 2004 that secured Bush his re-election, and I'm willing to say there has probably been more than one conversation in the upper echelons of Obama's campaign management that has outlined a possible way to mimic those efforts, and I think this may be what ultimately seals the deal for Obama
His ground game has been unprecedented, and if he does win on Tuesday historians and pundits will be laying out four things that were the key to his victory: 1) His long primary battle with Hillary Clinton that allowed his campaign to test strategy, introduce the candidate, and begin ground operations in almost every single state. 2) His huge spending advantage and the minimal backlash he faced in the American people's minds for going back on his pledge to not take public financing. 3) The economic crisis being seen by the vast majority of the American's as the resullt of failed Republican policies, and 4) His ability to energize the liberal base, as well as conservative working class Democrats in a way that only Bill Clinton was able to replicate earlier. These 4 factors, most notably the last, are going to be what delivers him this election.
Already there are reports from all over the country of Democrats having a very large advantage in early voting, and McCain really needs to do a lot of finger crossing on Tuesday hoping he can make up those margins.
Most would conclude that since it seems to be a small buy, targeting mostly rural Pennsylvania, it was merely released so that the media would showcase this ad, and again be able to spotlight Obama's ties to the Rev. Wright just before the election. Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod said today they had an ad ready in case the Republicans ever did an ad showcasing the pastor, but that they won't release it, thinking that whatever damage this ad could cause this late into the campaign will be minimal.
Another consequence of this decision by the Republicans means that they're devoting more resources to big media buys and advertisement instead of devoting more time and money into the infrastructure of a robust GOTV effort. Many within the media believe that it was the ground game of the GOP in 2004 that secured Bush his re-election, and I'm willing to say there has probably been more than one conversation in the upper echelons of Obama's campaign management that has outlined a possible way to mimic those efforts, and I think this may be what ultimately seals the deal for Obama
His ground game has been unprecedented, and if he does win on Tuesday historians and pundits will be laying out four things that were the key to his victory: 1) His long primary battle with Hillary Clinton that allowed his campaign to test strategy, introduce the candidate, and begin ground operations in almost every single state. 2) His huge spending advantage and the minimal backlash he faced in the American people's minds for going back on his pledge to not take public financing. 3) The economic crisis being seen by the vast majority of the American's as the resullt of failed Republican policies, and 4) His ability to energize the liberal base, as well as conservative working class Democrats in a way that only Bill Clinton was able to replicate earlier. These 4 factors, most notably the last, are going to be what delivers him this election.
Already there are reports from all over the country of Democrats having a very large advantage in early voting, and McCain really needs to do a lot of finger crossing on Tuesday hoping he can make up those margins.
Who are these people?
Marc Ambinder included a profile of the approximately 8% of voters who claim to still be undecided. The undecided voters are mainly white, male, and over the age of 45 and living in the Mid-West and the South. The majority of remaining undecided voters are also republicans or independents.
What I would like to know (and what wasn't included in the profile), is the question of whether the remaining undecided voters are people who just don't follow politics/ current events? Are they cynics who can't stand either candidate? Or are the republicans having an identity crisis who dislike McCain but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat?
I guess we'll find out on Tuesday!
What I would like to know (and what wasn't included in the profile), is the question of whether the remaining undecided voters are people who just don't follow politics/ current events? Are they cynics who can't stand either candidate? Or are the republicans having an identity crisis who dislike McCain but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat?
I guess we'll find out on Tuesday!
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