Sunday, November 2, 2008

48 hours until election day

The final 48 hours of the campaign show the RNC (some within the Republican party would say finally) going up with an advertisement featuring Obama's infamous former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, the ad is basically a greatest hits of all of Wright's now famous diatribes.
Most would conclude that since it seems to be a small buy, targeting mostly rural Pennsylvania, it was merely released so that the media would showcase this ad, and again be able to spotlight Obama's ties to the Rev. Wright just before the election. Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod said today they had an ad ready in case the Republicans ever did an ad showcasing the pastor, but that they won't release it, thinking that whatever damage this ad could cause this late into the campaign will be minimal.
Another consequence of this decision by the Republicans means that they're devoting more resources to big media buys and advertisement instead of devoting more time and money into the infrastructure of a robust GOTV effort. Many within the media believe that it was the ground game of the GOP in 2004 that secured Bush his re-election, and I'm willing to say there has probably been more than one conversation in the upper echelons of Obama's campaign management that has outlined a possible way to mimic those efforts, and I think this may be what ultimately seals the deal for Obama
His ground game has been unprecedented, and if he does win on Tuesday historians and pundits will be laying out four things that were the key to his victory: 1) His long primary battle with Hillary Clinton that allowed his campaign to test strategy, introduce the candidate, and begin ground operations in almost every single state. 2) His huge spending advantage and the minimal backlash he faced in the American people's minds for going back on his pledge to not take public financing. 3) The economic crisis being seen by the vast majority of the American's as the resullt of failed Republican policies, and 4) His ability to energize the liberal base, as well as conservative working class Democrats in a way that only Bill Clinton was able to replicate earlier. These 4 factors, most notably the last, are going to be what delivers him this election.
Already there are reports from all over the country of Democrats having a very large advantage in early voting, and McCain really needs to do a lot of finger crossing on Tuesday hoping he can make up those margins.

No comments: