Monday, November 3, 2008

Less than 12 hours to go until the nation votes, predictions

Alright so like all armchair pundits, I'm ready to make some predictions, since I don't have any glossy maps spotted with shimmering crimson and dark navy to make it look all official you'll have to use your imagination, if you want a shiny map with bold colors, go hang out with John King.
I've been following the polls extremely closely this election, with most of my data being sound and reliable, based on most of the recent polling numbers, as well as early voting numbers, historical turnout, ground operations, and party registration. With the exception of a couple toss up states that could go either way, most of these predictions are safe.

Alabama - 9 EV's - McCain + 20
Alaska - 3 EV's - McCain +15
Arizona - 10 EV's - McCain +9
Arkansas - 6 EV's - McCain +12
California - 55 EV's - Obama +23
Colorado - 9 EV's - Obama +5
Connecticut - 7 EV's - Obama + 17
District Of Columbia - 3 EV's - Obama +61
Delaware - 3 EV's - Obama + 20
Florida - 27 EV's - Obama +2
Georgia - 15 EV's - McCain +3
Hawaii - 4 EV's - Obama + 25
Idaho - 4 EV's - McCain +21
Illinois - 21 EV's - Obama +25
Indiana - 11 EV's - McCain +>1
Iowa - 7 EV's - Obama +10
Kansas - 6 EV's - McCain +14
Kentucky - 8 EV's - McCain +12
Louisiana - 9 EV's - McCain +11
Maine - 4 EV's - Obama +13
Maryland - 10 EV's - Obama +21
Massachussetts - 12 EV's - Obama +17
Michigan - 17 EV's - Obama +9
Minnesota - 10 EV's - Obama +12
Mississippi - 6 EV's - McCain +24
Missouri - 11 EV's - McCain +1
Montana - 3 EV's - McCain +4
Nebraska - 5 EV's - McCain +13
Nevada - 5 EV's - Obama +3
New Hampshire - 4 EV's - Obama +7
New Jersey - 15 EV's - Obama +16
New Mexico - 5 EV's - Obama +5
New York - 31 EV's - Obama +24
North Carolina - 15 EV's - Obama +>1
North Dakota - 3 EV's - McCain +8
Ohio - 20 EV's - Obama +2
Oklahoma - 7 EV's - McCain +25
Oregon - 7 EV's - Obama +12
Pennsylvania - 21 EV's - Obama +5
Rhode Island - 4 EV's - Obama +23
South Carolina - 8 EV's - McCain +8
South Dakota - 3 EV's McCain +9
Tennessee - 11 EV's - McCain +13
Texas - 34 EV's - McCain +10
Utah - 5 EV's - McCain + 27
Vermont - 3 EV's - Obama +22
Virginia - 13 EV's - Obama +4
Washington - 11 EV's - Obama +12
West Virgina - 5 EV's - McCain +6
Wisconsin - 10 EV's - Obama +7
Wyoming - 3 EV's - McCain + 26

Popular vote: Obama 53 - McCain 46 - Other 1
Total electoral votes: Obama 353 McCain 185

States to look out for that may be different than my predictions: Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada

Important times tomorrow night: (Pacific Time)

4:00 PM Virginia, Indiana, Georgia Polls close (Georgia and Indiana will be bellweathers for most of the night, if Obama wins either of these, expect an electoral landslide in his favor, If McCain maintains big margins here, then it will be a closer election then people originally thought)

4:30 PM Ohio Polls close

5:00 PM Pennsylvania and Florida Polls close

From here it will just be a huge wash of data for the rest of the night, but the six states I just listed will pretty much decide which way the election will go.

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