Monday, January 26, 2009

2012 and 2016, hey why not?

Well I know it's only 6 days into Obama's first term as president, but let's, just for fun go over the most likely GOP and Dem. likely primary-ers in 2012 and 2016.
For the Democrats, most are crossing their fingers for 2016, hoping that Obama's popularity holds and, like Clinton in 2000 and Reagan in 1988 would produce a favorable climate for the incumbent, especially since there are many up and coming stars within the party that have their sights set on the White House. Historically the public has been less than sympathetic to failed Democratic presidents (after Johnson, The Republicans controlled the white house for 20 of 24 years until Bill Clinton's election in 1992) and George Bush's two terms in office show that the public is still quicker to elect Republicans for nationwide office than Democrats. Be that as it may, the future of the Democratic Party's image lies solely on the success of Obama's presidency. If he is able to succeed, then any of the figures listed below would have a much better chance of getting elected than any of their Republican opponents.
Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton -- Probably the inevitable front runner for president in 2016. Any doubts about her experience and judgment will be placated by her current position, she is careful and calculating and will do whatever it takes to succeed in her new position, if anything to give her more national prominence for a possible Presidential run. Any peace agreements or relations that she fosters will be valuable both for political capital, and a lasting legacy. She will be 68 in 2016, but I think that many of her supporters, instead of possibly seeing her as too old for President, may instead see her as vetted, battle hardened, and ready.
Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) -- The popular former governor of Virginia, Warner turned down a possible presidential run in 2008 to instead run for Senate, in 2016 he will have 4 years experience as governor and 8 years in the Senate, a very decent resume these days, and he could be a very formidable opponent to any Democratic primary challenger. He's an adept fundraiser and won his Senate election 3 months ago with almost 70% of the vote. Look for him to craft his image over the next 8 years as a good negotiator, and for him to tout his bipartisan credentials as popular amongst many Repubicans in his home state, but even more beloved by Democrats that credit him with building the foundations there that turned Virginia blue this presidential election and is now also solidly Democratic statewide.
Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) -- Gov. Schweitzer's electrifying speech at the convention this year gave many democrats a "who's that guy!" Reaction that he could nurture for many years, he currently holds very high approval ratings in a state that is moving slowly from red to blue, and he will most likely face nominal resistance for re-election in 2010. He's likeable, he's charming; liberals love him, conservatives love him and he is very folksy, yet highly intelligent, a combination that kills at the national level.
Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) -- Maybe more of a dark horse, but Feingold has been at the forefront of a lot of high publicity bills in the Senate, and continues his reputation as a tough, ethics minded reformer that made headlines today by calling for a Constitutional amendment that will bar the antiquated law that put's Governors in charge of selecting senate replacements, he's popular amongst Republicans, has a history of reaching across the aisle, and would perform very strongly in the Midwest and Great Lakes region. It's unknown whether he has presidential ambitions or not, but he's a friend of Obama's and his fortunes may lie with The President.
Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD) -- the former mayor of Baltimore and current governor of Maryland Gov. O'Malley may be best known for being the basis for Tommy Carcetti, the former mayor of Baltimore and current governor of Maryland on the underground TV show "The Wire," he's an ambitious politician and holds clout within the Democratic Governor's Association and is pretty popular, as well as well-liked within the party. He could be more of a dark horse, but whether he puts his name in the ring depends a lot on whether Hillary Clinton runs and also what he does after his second term expires in 2014.
Also, one thing to keep in mind is whether Joe Biden will be Obama's running mate in 2012, he's currently 68, and will be 72 in 2012. It will be interesting to see how many times his mouth get's him into trouble and how popular he will be with the Democratic Party then, if he does get booted from the 2012 ticket. . .Hillary for VP? If Obama is running into trouble in 2012, you can bet he would shore up a lot of support by adding her as his running mate.

As for the Republicans, their fortunes are also tied to Obama's success or failures, and also to their party's leadership providing good natured competitiveness and opposition without seeming overly obstructionist or petty, if the economy improves under the watch of Democrats it would be very hard for them to gain a leg up unless there is a massive National Security breach or the Democrats fumble the ball pretty hard, if so, their return from the wilderness could come as early as 2010 with the congressional midterms. Here are some to watch out for in 2012.
Governor Mitt Romney -- Like Hillary Clinton, he is probably the front runner for 2012, and will probably be spending the next four years fundraising and gaining support for a likely run. If the economy doesn't recover he can probably run a very strong and formidable "I told you so!" Campaign that would probably get him some solid steam, if the economy does recover, or if National Security is the topic of the day, then his lacking of national security credentials maight burden his chances.
Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) -- Currently the darling of the conservative movement within the party, his ability to turn around Louisiana's devastated economy using simple conservative principles after Hurricane Katrina raised a lot of eyebrows within the GOP and he gained a lot of mainstream media attention last year as a possible VP pick, he's probably the best example of fresh blood in the party, and would be a good face for a new generation of leadership inside the Republican leadership circle. in 2012, he'll be 42, which would put him up there with John F. Kennedy, as a young, dynamic leader for a new generation, qualities that Republicans need now more than ever.
Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) -- We'll see how this one goes, don't forget that conservatives still ADORE her, and she would probably do quite well in the primaries depending on base turnout and if she limits her embarrassing TV moments and becomes more focused and mature over the next four years.
Speaker Of The House Newt Gingrich -- Hey, you heard it here first.
Who knows what 2012, or 2016 will look like, there is SO MUCH that can happen within 4 or 8 years (who would've predicted Obama 4 years ago?) But it's always fun to think about, and it will be interesting to see who distinguishes themselves in both parties throughout the Obama administration.

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