With members of the House fleeing the capitol today for five weeks to defend their votes (or lack thereof,) there will finally be a vote in the House Energy and Commerce committee today on it's version of the Health Care Reform Bill. Recently, Democratic Chairman Henry Waxman has come under fire from both sides of his party for giving too much to the other side. Most likely the bill will retain the public option sought by liberals, but federal subsidies for poorer families and costs for small businesses will be contained at the behest of the conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats, who've suddenly become a household name throughout the health care discussion.
The Senate, however, will not reccess until next Friday, allowing them to complete the confirmation of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. The Senate Finance Committee (the only committee in congress that has sought a bipartisan health care compromise between Republicans and Democrats), chaired by Chairman Max Baucus reported today that they won't be able to complete their version of the health care bill before next Friday's recess with ranking Republican member Chuck Grassley saying: "We're not committed to a deadline, we're committed to getting the job done."
Why Democrats should be happy during the reccess: A report by the Commerce Department that the GDP, which has been spiraling out of control for over a year, shrank by only 1% this quarter, with economic analysts predicting that next quarter should show modest gains. The economy is hanging around the neck of the Democratic Party, and any sliver of good news helps them as a whole. Also, the liberal grassroots will be pumping millions of dollars in ads next month to prop up their candidates and protect them from harsh attack ads from the Republican Party. The health care industry, which for now is on the side of reform, will also help by running it's own ads pressing for action. Action is on the side of Democrats, inaction is on the side of Republicans. President Obama will also have the media pretty much all to himself and can use the next five weeks to continue to carefully explain his health care proposals, as well as burnish whatever other goodwill he has up his sleeve to raise his approval ratings. Also, look for feel good stories about the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor, who's "no" votes from Republicans will be demonized by the White House and Majority Leadership in congress.
Why Republicans should be happy during the reccess: Despite months of pressing congress and pitching the American people, President Obama's health care deadline was not met and it has barely passed out of committee (one committee in the Senate, as explained above, still pending.) Obama has also muddled the health care message, with more and more polls showing that Americans are less supportive of the President's plan. Obama also is showing the first signs of mere mortality, his approval rate, now at around 54%, is his lowest since the election, and the White House message machine continues to be thrown off guard by cops and professors and beer summits. The stimulus, also continues to be sluggish at getting directly into the economy, and although unemployment has receded for the moment from it's rapid climb, many economists aren't attributing that to the $787 Billion Dollar Recovery Act that was touted as Obama's first major legislative accomplishment. Also, since the Democratic leadership won't have George W. Bush to kick around anymore, Republicans can slowly begin to climb out from under that shadow and go on the offensive probably for the first time since 2004, with conservative interest groups energized by the Supreme Court confirmation hearings and the failing health care debate, The GOP leadership will be able to raise record money hauls and run a lot of ads in swing districts being defended by already nervous Democrats.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Health care debate drags on, weekly news cycle goes haywire..
The congressional debate over health care has continued to drag on without any major breakthroughs this week. The lack of narrative on this story has left the door wide open for the media to speculate on the birthers movement, Joe Biden's comments on the state of Russia, Obama's comments on the Henry Louis Gates incident, Sarah Palin's resignation, and the Sonia Sotomayor hearings. It's nearing the end of the week and so far none of these story lines have stuck.
Late today, just as Henry Waxman thought he had made a deal with the outspoken Blue Dog Democrats, progressives in the House came out against the deal claiming that conservatives had highjacked the health care bill.
We'll have to see how this development plays out in the news tomorrow and possibly into next week.
Late today, just as Henry Waxman thought he had made a deal with the outspoken Blue Dog Democrats, progressives in the House came out against the deal claiming that conservatives had highjacked the health care bill.
We'll have to see how this development plays out in the news tomorrow and possibly into next week.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Health Care bill unlikely to be passed by summer recess
Even after the White House's head first dive into the health care debate last week and The President using every media outlet he can to try and capture more urgency and attention to his plans; congress, facing a mess of infighting, scapegoating, and obstruction, continues to put the brakes on meeting any sort of deadline on passing Health Care reform.
Sen. Dick Durbin, the no. 2 man in the Senate, and one of Obama's staunchest allies bluntly stated that a full vote "won't be possible" by the August recess, which begins in just a couple of weeks. Durbin denied that the momentum on the bill was stalling, but also acknowledged that it's going to be a much slower process then even Majority Leader Harry Reid had wanted.
The Senate Finance Committee is not expected to finish the final markup of its healthcare bill until next week, at which point it would have to be reconciled with the version passed last week by the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. All of these factors, plus the continuing floor debate over the confirmation of Judge Sonia Sotomayor, will take up precious time over the next couple of weeks.
In the House, despite Speaker Nancy Pelosi hinting yesterday that they may not all adjourn for the summer recess, obstacles lie there as well, with conservative Democrats uneasy about the surtax on the rich being considered in their version that was just passed through committee.
Health care not passing by summer could be a blessing for Obama, or a curse. He could maximize this time and gain a a full court advantage, dominating the media coverage and making his own direct pitch to the American people while congress is away, as well as turning the focus to other elements of his domestic agenda. However, if the public begins to lose interest, dismal economic news dominates, or the media continues to hammer away at him for not meeting his own deadlines, the debate on health care could die and Obama, like so many of his predecessors, would have to give up and live to fight another day.
Sen. Dick Durbin, the no. 2 man in the Senate, and one of Obama's staunchest allies bluntly stated that a full vote "won't be possible" by the August recess, which begins in just a couple of weeks. Durbin denied that the momentum on the bill was stalling, but also acknowledged that it's going to be a much slower process then even Majority Leader Harry Reid had wanted.
The Senate Finance Committee is not expected to finish the final markup of its healthcare bill until next week, at which point it would have to be reconciled with the version passed last week by the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. All of these factors, plus the continuing floor debate over the confirmation of Judge Sonia Sotomayor, will take up precious time over the next couple of weeks.
In the House, despite Speaker Nancy Pelosi hinting yesterday that they may not all adjourn for the summer recess, obstacles lie there as well, with conservative Democrats uneasy about the surtax on the rich being considered in their version that was just passed through committee.
Health care not passing by summer could be a blessing for Obama, or a curse. He could maximize this time and gain a a full court advantage, dominating the media coverage and making his own direct pitch to the American people while congress is away, as well as turning the focus to other elements of his domestic agenda. However, if the public begins to lose interest, dismal economic news dominates, or the media continues to hammer away at him for not meeting his own deadlines, the debate on health care could die and Obama, like so many of his predecessors, would have to give up and live to fight another day.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Obama's Presidential News Conference on Healthcare
Obama held a news conference today to set the record straight on his increasingly unpopular attempt at reforming the American healthcare system. The big network channels were reluctant to run the live conference because it interfered with regular programming. Overall, Obama kept his cool and was able to put across the reasoning behind his healthcare plan in the same plain, clear language that appealed to voters during his campaign. He expressed an attitude of flexibility in terms of meeting the August deadline and he promised that unless you're an American making at least a million dollars a year, your taxes won't be raised to cover healthcare reform. Obama also pushed to heavily attack the notion that he was out to pass another expensive (and ineffective) government program and again wasted no time in pointing the finger back at the Bush administration when it came to questions related to the federal deficit.
Obama was able to bullshit his way through a question asking about why he healthcare reform discussions weren't being shown on C-SPAN but he took the time to thoughtfully answer a question regarding race relations surrounding the arrest of Henry Louis Gates Jr.
Obama was able to bullshit his way through a question asking about why he healthcare reform discussions weren't being shown on C-SPAN but he took the time to thoughtfully answer a question regarding race relations surrounding the arrest of Henry Louis Gates Jr.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Obama's fork in the road and the crisis of Democratic leadership
The conventional wisdom over the summer, as the trench warfare over health care continues, is not only that Obama's once-bulletproof poll numbers may be slipping, (his personal numbers continue to far outperform the numbers for his policies) but that going into next year he may have to fight off a word gaining significant momentum within his opposition: failure.
The last two Democratic administrations that preceded him (which have spanned only 12 of the past 40 years,) were voted in more in regards to their timing or persona than any actual message. All three were relatively young (under 55), were seen as Washington "outsiders," and were voted in only after two or three terms of Republican leadership gave the country a feeling of anti-incumbency and a willingness to go left. All three had strong congressional majorities and a clear, sweeping and ambitious agenda to set things right in Washington.
Obama's most immediate predecessor, Bill Clinton, served two terms -- and although his administration was marked by years of partisan warfare and scandal, his presidency as a whole was viewed as successful and he had high approval ratings after leaving office. However, the Democratic President before that, Jimmy Carter, served only one term, and although his post-presidency has somewhat vindicated his reputation, most of Carter's presidency is viewed as a failure by the mainstream, and the Republican Party used "Jimmy Carter and the days of malaise" to win lots of victories in the 80's and 90's.
So it's clear that Obama, now fighting for his life on almost all fronts of his domestic agenda, has come to a fork in the path of his own administration. He can either go the way of Plains, Georgia or the way of Hope, Arkansas. Going the way of Plains means that the economy will not stop it's downward tumble, unemployment will stay stubbornly high, and congress will continue to stonewall the President, or if his numbers get worse, outright reject any of his plans altogether. Going the way of Hope, however, means that Obama will stubbornly hold his own, the economy will recover, perhaps even prosper, he'll get his legislation approved, his numbers will stay high and he may even be viewed as successful.
If Obama does overcome the mounting obstacles before him, then this will just be seen as a bad summer slump in the midst of a great administration. However, if he never recovers, then history will look back and see this week as the high water mark, when we knew that it was all downhill from here.
Currently the Republicans, although deep in the basement of minority status, are enjoying the advantages that come with being oppositional to a controversial agenda. Their smaller numbers allow them to stay on-message and united, they don't have to have any alternative ideas, and can begin their slow walk back to power through simple attrition. The Democratic leadership, on the other hand, is facing the crisis that comes with a swollen majority, their caucus is diverse (maybe too diverse for consensus) and each wing of the party claims to represent it's "core ideas." The leadership is unable to stifle dissent as it's members refuse to be a rubber stamp to a new presidential agenda that could leave them all unelectable in the years to come if that same agenda is roundly rejected by the public.
The last two Democratic administrations that preceded him (which have spanned only 12 of the past 40 years,) were voted in more in regards to their timing or persona than any actual message. All three were relatively young (under 55), were seen as Washington "outsiders," and were voted in only after two or three terms of Republican leadership gave the country a feeling of anti-incumbency and a willingness to go left. All three had strong congressional majorities and a clear, sweeping and ambitious agenda to set things right in Washington.
Obama's most immediate predecessor, Bill Clinton, served two terms -- and although his administration was marked by years of partisan warfare and scandal, his presidency as a whole was viewed as successful and he had high approval ratings after leaving office. However, the Democratic President before that, Jimmy Carter, served only one term, and although his post-presidency has somewhat vindicated his reputation, most of Carter's presidency is viewed as a failure by the mainstream, and the Republican Party used "Jimmy Carter and the days of malaise" to win lots of victories in the 80's and 90's.
So it's clear that Obama, now fighting for his life on almost all fronts of his domestic agenda, has come to a fork in the path of his own administration. He can either go the way of Plains, Georgia or the way of Hope, Arkansas. Going the way of Plains means that the economy will not stop it's downward tumble, unemployment will stay stubbornly high, and congress will continue to stonewall the President, or if his numbers get worse, outright reject any of his plans altogether. Going the way of Hope, however, means that Obama will stubbornly hold his own, the economy will recover, perhaps even prosper, he'll get his legislation approved, his numbers will stay high and he may even be viewed as successful.
If Obama does overcome the mounting obstacles before him, then this will just be seen as a bad summer slump in the midst of a great administration. However, if he never recovers, then history will look back and see this week as the high water mark, when we knew that it was all downhill from here.
Currently the Republicans, although deep in the basement of minority status, are enjoying the advantages that come with being oppositional to a controversial agenda. Their smaller numbers allow them to stay on-message and united, they don't have to have any alternative ideas, and can begin their slow walk back to power through simple attrition. The Democratic leadership, on the other hand, is facing the crisis that comes with a swollen majority, their caucus is diverse (maybe too diverse for consensus) and each wing of the party claims to represent it's "core ideas." The leadership is unable to stifle dissent as it's members refuse to be a rubber stamp to a new presidential agenda that could leave them all unelectable in the years to come if that same agenda is roundly rejected by the public.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Progress made on Health Care legislation
As the legislative session comes closer and closer to taking it's annual summer recess next month, the White House finally has begun to take larger steps in forging the health care debate as well as more forcefully challenge its critics.
Yesterday the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions committee -- chaired by the ailing Ted Kennedy (with Christopher Dodd pinch-hitting) approved it's version of the Health Care Bill in a strictly partisan vote of 13 to 10, with all Democrats on the panel voting for and all Republicans voting against. The "deal breaker," as Republicans called it, was the provision in the bill to create a government run health insurance option for those currently without insurance. Democrats assured that this measure guaranteed wider coverage for Americans while Republicans argued that the costs would be unpredictable, care would be rationed, and quality would be low.
The House also has moved forward with various versions of it's own legislation, in particular, a new bill approved by the Ways And Means committee will cover the costs of new government investments in health care by creating a new surtax on wealthy Americans that was met with general outrage by Republicans who say raising taxes on small businesses would cripple an already struggling economy, and that wealthy Americans should not be "punished" to foot the bill of enormous federal spending increases.
Still, the White House, eager to show progress on it's signature legislation, gave wide praise to the movement made in both houses and Obama said he was "eager" to see the legislation pass the full congress by the end of the summer legislating session. An ability to not get it passed before then would lead to diminished momentum and political realities that would make the chances of it ever passing much less. Obama would then have to admit the same defeat that so many of his forbears have in the past, from Truman to Clinton, and health care in the country would say in the same shape that it has and may forever will be.
Yesterday the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions committee -- chaired by the ailing Ted Kennedy (with Christopher Dodd pinch-hitting) approved it's version of the Health Care Bill in a strictly partisan vote of 13 to 10, with all Democrats on the panel voting for and all Republicans voting against. The "deal breaker," as Republicans called it, was the provision in the bill to create a government run health insurance option for those currently without insurance. Democrats assured that this measure guaranteed wider coverage for Americans while Republicans argued that the costs would be unpredictable, care would be rationed, and quality would be low.
The House also has moved forward with various versions of it's own legislation, in particular, a new bill approved by the Ways And Means committee will cover the costs of new government investments in health care by creating a new surtax on wealthy Americans that was met with general outrage by Republicans who say raising taxes on small businesses would cripple an already struggling economy, and that wealthy Americans should not be "punished" to foot the bill of enormous federal spending increases.
Still, the White House, eager to show progress on it's signature legislation, gave wide praise to the movement made in both houses and Obama said he was "eager" to see the legislation pass the full congress by the end of the summer legislating session. An ability to not get it passed before then would lead to diminished momentum and political realities that would make the chances of it ever passing much less. Obama would then have to admit the same defeat that so many of his forbears have in the past, from Truman to Clinton, and health care in the country would say in the same shape that it has and may forever will be.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Where's the beef, Obama??
With recent reports suggesting that America may be without a health care bill or an energy bill this summer, it will be interesting to see how much time President Obama has until the public's good will towards him starts to wear out. Since taking office almost 7 months ago, Obama has yet to make progress on many of his campaign platforms, from health care to energy, gay rights, pulling out of the war in Iraq, and closing Guantanamo Bay, I think Americans may be tapping their toes a little louder waiting for that change they can believe in to come through. At the same time, doubts are continuing to arise over the stimulus plan which may need to be supplemented by a second stimulus, and the unemployment rate continues to rise.
The president's leadership style so far has been to set the agenda and then allow congress to duke out the details, but ultimately if nothing gets accomplished it will be on Obama's head. So in the coming weeks, will Obama publicly press on congress to get healthcare and energy? What will happen if he doesn't? Will he change the subject? Get angry? Turn the page? Point the finger? He hasn't got a lot of time left before the summer recess, it will be interesting to see whether he changes his strategy.
The president's leadership style so far has been to set the agenda and then allow congress to duke out the details, but ultimately if nothing gets accomplished it will be on Obama's head. So in the coming weeks, will Obama publicly press on congress to get healthcare and energy? What will happen if he doesn't? Will he change the subject? Get angry? Turn the page? Point the finger? He hasn't got a lot of time left before the summer recess, it will be interesting to see whether he changes his strategy.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Americans begin to sour on stimulus
It's no secret that recently, with unemployment numbers out of control and the economy continuing to sag, the American public has begun to grow more and more skeptical about the effectiveness of the $787 Billion economic stimulus program that was approved by congress and The President in February.
When the bill was passed it was lauded as ambitious, historical and bold, but was also derided as weak and wasteful and received only 3 total Republican votes in both the House and the Senate. The landmark stimulus was the President's first legislative victory and set a pattern for how the Obama administration deals with congress (most specifially Republicans in congress.) Originally, in the days after the inauguration, Obama made frequent trips to the hill and 'bipartisanship' was all the rage. The President said he had hoped for "80 votes" in the Senate and that the first item on his sweeping domestic agenda would receive broad support from both parties, as they put their idealogical differences aside to deliver a historical bill that would give the economy the shot in the arm it needed. Instead, concessions were made on both sides, negotiations fell apart, old rivalries and differences flared and Republicans revolted against the bill, rejecting it nearly unanimously.
As reported yesterday in The New York Times, criticism for the recovery plan has deepened and Republicans are anxious to see their nearly wholehearted rejection of the stimulus bear political fruit. There have even been calls amongst some economists and some Democrats for a second stimulus, an idea that may seem good, but would be a dead issue politically, both for The White House and for congress as Obama would have to admit his first stimulus wasn't good enough and congress would have to admit they don't have the votes for another bill. Larry Summers, White House economic advisor, echoing administration talking points, has urged patience, saying that money has to be doled out carefully and that there will be a ramp up of spending towards the end of this calendar year that will help unemployment numbers stabilize.
Obama has repeatedly preached continuing patience since he took office, but either because of exhaustion on the part of the American people in watching their lives get worse and worse or also because pointed Republican attacks are becoming more and more successful, there has been a slow trend downward for his national numbers, especially amongst Independents, who's support will be vital in the continuing debate on Health Care and Energy, as well as immigration and National Security, all issues that could make or break a President during normal times, much less a time of crisis.
When the bill was passed it was lauded as ambitious, historical and bold, but was also derided as weak and wasteful and received only 3 total Republican votes in both the House and the Senate. The landmark stimulus was the President's first legislative victory and set a pattern for how the Obama administration deals with congress (most specifially Republicans in congress.) Originally, in the days after the inauguration, Obama made frequent trips to the hill and 'bipartisanship' was all the rage. The President said he had hoped for "80 votes" in the Senate and that the first item on his sweeping domestic agenda would receive broad support from both parties, as they put their idealogical differences aside to deliver a historical bill that would give the economy the shot in the arm it needed. Instead, concessions were made on both sides, negotiations fell apart, old rivalries and differences flared and Republicans revolted against the bill, rejecting it nearly unanimously.
As reported yesterday in The New York Times, criticism for the recovery plan has deepened and Republicans are anxious to see their nearly wholehearted rejection of the stimulus bear political fruit. There have even been calls amongst some economists and some Democrats for a second stimulus, an idea that may seem good, but would be a dead issue politically, both for The White House and for congress as Obama would have to admit his first stimulus wasn't good enough and congress would have to admit they don't have the votes for another bill. Larry Summers, White House economic advisor, echoing administration talking points, has urged patience, saying that money has to be doled out carefully and that there will be a ramp up of spending towards the end of this calendar year that will help unemployment numbers stabilize.
Obama has repeatedly preached continuing patience since he took office, but either because of exhaustion on the part of the American people in watching their lives get worse and worse or also because pointed Republican attacks are becoming more and more successful, there has been a slow trend downward for his national numbers, especially amongst Independents, who's support will be vital in the continuing debate on Health Care and Energy, as well as immigration and National Security, all issues that could make or break a President during normal times, much less a time of crisis.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Sarah Palin resigns
Yesterday afternoon Sarah Palin announced that she is resigning from her position as the governor of Alaska at the end of this month. Her announcement was a shock to many, even those closest to the governor. Although Palin claimed that her reason for leaving was because she was a lame duck, others speculate that the governor was worn down by the numerous ethics investigations that had been launched against her since her run for the vice-presidency in 2008. Still others see Palin's decision to step down as a bold move to prepare for a presidential run in 2012.
More info to come..
More info to come..
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