Obama's fork in the road and the crisis of Democratic leadership

The conventional wisdom over the summer, as the trench warfare over health care continues, is not only that Obama's once-bulletproof poll numbers may be slipping, (his personal numbers continue to far outperform the numbers for his policies) but that going into next year he may have to fight off a word gaining significant momentum within his opposition: failure.

The last two Democratic administrations that preceded him (which have spanned only 12 of the past 40 years,) were voted in more in regards to their timing or persona than any actual message. All three were relatively young (under 55), were seen as Washington "outsiders," and were voted in only after two or three terms of Republican leadership gave the country a feeling of anti-incumbency and a willingness to go left. All three had strong congressional majorities and a clear, sweeping and ambitious agenda to set things right in Washington.

Obama's most immediate predecessor, Bill Clinton, served two terms -- and although his administration was marked by years of partisan warfare and scandal, his presidency as a whole was viewed as successful and he had high approval ratings after leaving office. However, the Democratic President before that, Jimmy Carter, served only one term, and although his post-presidency has somewhat vindicated his reputation, most of Carter's presidency is viewed as a failure by the mainstream, and the Republican Party used "Jimmy Carter and the days of malaise" to win lots of victories in the 80's and 90's.

So it's clear that Obama, now fighting for his life on almost all fronts of his domestic agenda, has come to a fork in the path of his own administration. He can either go the way of Plains, Georgia or the way of Hope, Arkansas. Going the way of Plains means that the economy will not stop it's downward tumble, unemployment will stay stubbornly high, and congress will continue to stonewall the President, or if his numbers get worse, outright reject any of his plans altogether. Going the way of Hope, however, means that Obama will stubbornly hold his own, the economy will recover, perhaps even prosper, he'll get his legislation approved, his numbers will stay high and he may even be viewed as successful.

If Obama does overcome the mounting obstacles before him, then this will just be seen as a bad summer slump in the midst of a great administration. However, if he never recovers, then history will look back and see this week as the high water mark, when we knew that it was all downhill from here.

Currently the Republicans, although deep in the basement of minority status, are enjoying the advantages that come with being oppositional to a controversial agenda. Their smaller numbers allow them to stay on-message and united, they don't have to have any alternative ideas, and can begin their slow walk back to power through simple attrition. The Democratic leadership, on the other hand, is facing the crisis that comes with a swollen majority, their caucus is diverse (maybe too diverse for consensus) and each wing of the party claims to represent it's "core ideas." The leadership is unable to stifle dissent as it's members refuse to be a rubber stamp to a new presidential agenda that could leave them all unelectable in the years to come if that same agenda is roundly rejected by the public.