Previewing the August recess

With members of the House fleeing the capitol today for five weeks to defend their votes (or lack thereof,) there will finally be a vote in the House Energy and Commerce committee today on it's version of the Health Care Reform Bill. Recently, Democratic Chairman Henry Waxman has come under fire from both sides of his party for giving too much to the other side. Most likely the bill will retain the public option sought by liberals, but federal subsidies for poorer families and costs for small businesses will be contained at the behest of the conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats, who've suddenly become a household name throughout the health care discussion.

The Senate, however, will not reccess until next Friday, allowing them to complete the confirmation of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. The Senate Finance Committee (the only committee in congress that has sought a bipartisan health care compromise between Republicans and Democrats), chaired by Chairman Max Baucus reported today that they won't be able to complete their version of the health care bill before next Friday's recess with ranking Republican member Chuck Grassley saying: "We're not committed to a deadline, we're committed to getting the job done."

Why Democrats should be happy during the reccess: A report by the Commerce Department that the GDP, which has been spiraling out of control for over a year, shrank by only 1% this quarter, with economic analysts predicting that next quarter should show modest gains. The economy is hanging around the neck of the Democratic Party, and any sliver of good news helps them as a whole. Also, the liberal grassroots will be pumping millions of dollars in ads next month to prop up their candidates and protect them from harsh attack ads from the Republican Party. The health care industry, which for now is on the side of reform, will also help by running it's own ads pressing for action. Action is on the side of Democrats, inaction is on the side of Republicans. President Obama will also have the media pretty much all to himself and can use the next five weeks to continue to carefully explain his health care proposals, as well as burnish whatever other goodwill he has up his sleeve to raise his approval ratings. Also, look for feel good stories about the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor, who's "no" votes from Republicans will be demonized by the White House and Majority Leadership in congress.

Why Republicans should be happy during the reccess: Despite months of pressing congress and pitching the American people, President Obama's health care deadline was not met and it has barely passed out of committee (one committee in the Senate, as explained above, still pending.) Obama has also muddled the health care message, with more and more polls showing that Americans are less supportive of the President's plan. Obama also is showing the first signs of mere mortality, his approval rate, now at around 54%, is his lowest since the election, and the White House message machine continues to be thrown off guard by cops and professors and beer summits. The stimulus, also continues to be sluggish at getting directly into the economy, and although unemployment has receded for the moment from it's rapid climb, many economists aren't attributing that to the $787 Billion Dollar Recovery Act that was touted as Obama's first major legislative accomplishment. Also, since the Democratic leadership won't have George W. Bush to kick around anymore, Republicans can slowly begin to climb out from under that shadow and go on the offensive probably for the first time since 2004, with conservative interest groups energized by the Supreme Court confirmation hearings and the failing health care debate, The GOP leadership will be able to raise record money hauls and run a lot of ads in swing districts being defended by already nervous Democrats.