Health Care bill unlikely to be passed by summer recess

Even after the White House's head first dive into the health care debate last week and The President using every media outlet he can to try and capture more urgency and attention to his plans; congress, facing a mess of infighting, scapegoating, and obstruction, continues to put the brakes on meeting any sort of deadline on passing Health Care reform.

Sen. Dick Durbin, the no. 2 man in the Senate, and one of Obama's staunchest allies bluntly stated that a full vote "won't be possible" by the August recess, which begins in just a couple of weeks. Durbin denied that the momentum on the bill was stalling, but also acknowledged that it's going to be a much slower process then even Majority Leader Harry Reid had wanted.

The Senate Finance Committee is not expected to finish the final markup of its healthcare bill until next week, at which point it would have to be reconciled with the version passed last week by the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. All of these factors, plus the continuing floor debate over the confirmation of Judge Sonia Sotomayor, will take up precious time over the next couple of weeks.

In the House, despite Speaker Nancy Pelosi hinting yesterday that they may not all adjourn for the summer recess, obstacles lie there as well, with conservative Democrats uneasy about the surtax on the rich being considered in their version that was just passed through committee.

Health care not passing by summer could be a blessing for Obama, or a curse. He could maximize this time and gain a a full court advantage, dominating the media coverage and making his own direct pitch to the American people while congress is away, as well as turning the focus to other elements of his domestic agenda. However, if the public begins to lose interest, dismal economic news dominates, or the media continues to hammer away at him for not meeting his own deadlines, the debate on health care could die and Obama, like so many of his predecessors, would have to give up and live to fight another day.