Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Democrats search for a way forward after Massachusetts special election

President Obama and The Democratic Party were dealt a pretty stiff blow last night, not just because of the bad press and internal finger pointing that their party will now be subjected too after losing last night's special election, but also because panicked Democratic lawmakers, who already have a tendency to be nervous and think often in terms of "doomsday scenarios," will now feel a desire to blow off their entire ambitious agenda hoping not to be the next "Martha Coakley" in their state or district.

For The President, his image is somewhat dented, but he is still +1 Senator in Congress than he was when he was inaugurated exactly one year ago today (he was inaugurated before Arlen Specter switched parties and also before Al Franken was seated.) Any president would gladly take a 59 seat majority for their party in the Senate, and I think the White House still sees it that way to a certain point, but they have a lot of cold facts to face now:

1) This is no longer 2009, and in just over 10 months every single Democrat in the house will be up for re-election, and anything that has a whiff of being unpopular in their district will be a "no-go" (and that includes health care.)

2) After Martha Coakley's lethargic and gaffe-prone campaign, many in the DNC and also in the Congressional campaign arms, may rethink a lot of the candidates they have vying for open seats and will also have to deal with many competitive primaries as incumbent Democrats will face battles within their own parties for something of a "fresh face."

3) Democrats will be fighting to keep their agenda from being seen as "crumbling," and will try to tout as many accomplishments as they can, however, since they've been working on this health care bill for nearly a year, the accomplishment load will seem pretty light. This is inevitably a paradox and could cause Dems to spend months going back and forth between "we should pass health care now" and "we should start over," (which of course will feed the "crumbling agenda" storyline.)

Politico posted an interesting read here that sums up the new fear gripping the party: "if they can lose in Massachusetts, they can lose anywhere" and unfortunately for Obama and whatever broader agenda he has now, nothing that he says to try and soothe his party or corral votes on his issues will measure up to that one statement for the rest of the year.

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