Massachusetts special Senate election goes national

A lot of attention has been paid to the special Senate election going on in Massachusetts. Martha Coakley, the state's Attorney General, and the Democratic candidate, is vying to become the new junior senator from the Bay State to fill the seat vacated by Ted Kennedy after his death last year.

In a state with an overwhelming Democratic voter registration edge that hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, Coakley's election should've been a breeze, and up until now, the White House, and other Democratic power players have largely written off the election as a given, not thinking anything could go wrong in the election to fill a seat once filled by Kennedy for almost 50 years.

Enter Scott Brown, a relatively unkown Republican state senator that was polling nearly 30 points down at the beginning of the race who is proving to be a serious contender, raising serious cash, getting serious momentum, and giving an already nervous Democratic establishment serious heartburn. A Suffolk University poll released today shows Brown edging ahead of Coakley and almost all reputable political reports are showing the race to be a "toss up." Almost unheard of for what should be a safe Democratic hold.

National staff from both parties have been converging on the state for the past two weeks with Republicans saying it's a referendum on Obama's weakening national agenda and the unpopular health care reform bills on the verge of passage in congress. Democrats, who secretly seem to agree that Coakley wasn't as strong of a candidate as they thought, are trying over and over to make sure everyone in the deep blue Massachusetts electorate knows that Scott Brown is a Republican! (Gasp!)

A Brown upset would do HUGE damage to the national Democratic party, and give the GOP a strong wind at their backs as they go into 2010. Not only would it endanger the passage of Democrats' top domestic priority, but it could throw a giant can of gasoline on a media narrative fire that says the national Democratic brand is weak at best and could cause a flood of retirements, creating an opening for a huge Republican takeover of congress; and could bring President Obama's legislative agenda to a screeching halt as anxious lawmakers refuse to touch anything that could seem remotely controversial.

It's making for great political theater and I highly suggest everyone watch this story closely.

*UPDATE* Given the graven implications for his agenda, the White House has indicated that President Obama will indeed visit the state Sunday night to campaign for Coakley. This is definitely a risky move for him, as a Coakley loss will reflect very poorly on him and weaken him further, and Republicans (much like their triumphs last year in New Jersey and Virginia) will spin the loss as a further referendum on him and his agenda, but would be harder for dems to spin even if she wins, since they should've coasted into the seat anyway.