Monday, October 20, 2008

Today's polls 10/20

Well it's almost exactly two weeks until election day and the polling that has come out today has been very good news for the Obama campaign.
Last week I said I wanted to wait a week or so to see if there would be movement in the polls in light of the McCain campaign's all out kitchen sink attack on Barack Obama.
Well there has been a tiny bit of movement and overall I'd say Obama has come down nationally about 1-3 points, and still looks to be breaking 350 electoral votes if the state polling is analyzed. McCain may have no other chances to try and change the American People's minds, and the elusive "game changer" may never materialize for him. Obama's campaign is hitting McCain hard on the economy and health care and they have just reported a massive fundraising number that will allow his campaign almost limitless spending in the next two weeks on advertising, canvassing, and get out the vote efforts, as well as unleashing the most impressive volunteer army any campaign has ever had.
I think these are the elements that are maintaining his lead, not neccessarily that McCain's message has failed, indeed I think if anything it has further polarized the base of the Republican Party the same way they felt about Clinton in 1992, with fringe elements of that party equating Obama to a terrorist, a socialist, or both.
I was tempted to write a post last month about whether Obama's ground game would be any benefit to him, as it didn't make much of a difference during the primaries, but then again, no ground game like this has ever been unleashed in modern politics.
As much as Obama tries to tie McCain to Bush, it was this way of campaigning that won Bush two terms in office, so credit needs to be given where it's due.

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