Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Today's polls 10/8

Well Barack Obama has a pretty undisputed lead right now, there's no amiguity in the polls, the real clear politics electoral vote tracker has him at about 364 to McCain's 174 (keep in mind Bob Dole only got 159 electoral votes in 1996.)
With states like North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada most recently falling into the Obama column solely based on current polling numbers, the map is beginning to look startlingly blue. I for one would still call those three states pure toss ups, only because the polling is so close, and no one is going to know how the Obama ground game will produce votes versus the underlying racial factor that a lot of pundits and media have been discussing, and to be fair, is a legitimate question as all three of those states are for the most part, historically conservative.
Things are undeniably looking grim for McCain, it's all over the news and in the papers, Obama has the wind at his back now, and I'm sure his advisors are telling him not to change a single thing that he's doing, ensuring he continues to look even tempered and confident in the face of the growing financial crisis.
McCain on the other hand has run out of options, he has to go nuclear, and his all out character assault on Obama recently is really the last card that he can play, unfortunately for him it plays into the media narrative that Obama has really been driving that McCain is desperate and erratic at a time when the country is looking for inspiration and confidence.
All of the polling that was released today has been following the trends of the last week, the states where Obama is ahead, he maintains his lead, and the states where he is not ahead, he is seeing his margins growing closer. It being this close to the election there are almost too many polls daily to be discussed, but what we can do is point out a few states that only a month ago looked out of reach for him. States like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Between those three states alone there's a whopping 50 electoral college votes, almost 10 percent of the total electoral college, and it's hard to see any McCain strategy where he can find a path to victory without winning at least 2, if not all 3 of those states.

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