Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Today's polls 10/22

There's been hardly any movement in the polls recently, Obama still leads in key swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Vriginia, and Colorado, as well as maintaining an average of about a 5 point lead nationally. His path to 270 electoral votes seems to get wider and wider whereas McCain's seems to be narrower by the day.
It appears that the McCain campaign's negative robocalls and attempts to continue the Bill Ayers and ACORN narrative have not had the hold on the average voter that they thought
It's hard to see anything happen between now and election day that could pull McCain in the direction he needs to go, and anything they do at this point anyway would be seen by the media as "desperate."
The election is now less than a month away and already early voting has suggested that there could be another year of record turnout, especially amongst the demographics that the Obama campaign has microtargeted: Young people, African-Americans, and hispanics, key demographics that will no doubt probably go down as being responsible for his election. Early voting in many states has already seen some record numbers, with these early voters drifting Democratic according to most analysis.
McCain needs the base that Bush rallied in 2004 to come out in equally impressive numbers to keep it a nailbiter, and I think his campaign needs to focus on GOTV efforts and spend almost all the money he has left on his ground game. I could see a few of the states, such as North Carolina and Indiana and maybe even Florida and Ohio squeaking into the red category again this election day if he focuses on those efforts hard enough.

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