President Obama held a news conference today after several weeks of mounting criticism from both democrats and republicans regarding the federal government's response to the BP oil spill.
While Obama's critics have mostly lacked specific suggestions on what the federal government should be doing to mitigate this environmental disaster (also known as Obama's Katrina and/or Obama's Exxon Valdez, take your pick), the general consensus is that the government was slow to act and that red tape is keeping local clean-up efforts from moving forward.
In his news conference today, Obama lashed out at the GOP for politicizing the oil spill and seemed to make a deliberate effort to come across as angry and frustrated with BP. He defended the federal government's response effort while at the same time acknowledging that the size of the oil spill has now exceeded the level of the Exxon Valdez (making it the largest oil spill in US history).
So what is next for Obama? The oil spill is still continuing to spread, but could this spill really have the same political impact on him as Katrina did on Bush? The disaster has gone uncontained for a month now, is it possible that public interest in the issue could wane if it goes on long enough? Even though Obama was open to offshore drilling only 2 months ago and since scaled back his stance, the GOP is still heavily tied to the oil industry, and it seems unlikely that a future challenger would be pro-oil in a campaign.
It is also unclear what exactly the federal government can do other than work with BP as it has been to stop the spill. The nature of this event is in completely uncharted territory, but perhaps the public announcement that the head of the Minerals Management Service (MMS) had been fired and the president's moratorium on offshore drilling will begin to have an effect on the public's perception of the disaster response.
On a side note, while some had speculated that a question regarding the job offer supposedly made to Joe Sestak might pop up during the conference, it apparently did not come up.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Health Care Vote Countdown
With the health care reform 'vote' set for Sunday, the media is aflurry with headcounts naming whose on Nancy Pelosi's side and whose still undecided. There are currently 64 representatives holding out, my guess would be that they aren't really undecided but are waiting to see what kind of goodies they can pick up in the final hours in exchange for their vote. And in case you're still wondering how the 'deem and pass' strategy actually works, Todd Purdum over at Vanity Fair wrote a good piece yesterday of breaking it down.
Paul Krugman wrote a great piece today reminding Americans why passing health care reform is so important. It will be interesting to see how Democrats will recover if health care reform doesn't pass. As Paul Krugman mentions in the linked piece above, this may be the final shot at health care reform for several years.
Paul Krugman wrote a great piece today reminding Americans why passing health care reform is so important. It will be interesting to see how Democrats will recover if health care reform doesn't pass. As Paul Krugman mentions in the linked piece above, this may be the final shot at health care reform for several years.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Are Democrats finally getting their act together?
In the dawn of what some see as a coming GOP renaissance, the Democrats, after a tumultuous year, may be seeing a glimmer of hope for their party's prospects in this years midterm elections. The Health care bill may (actually, someday) pass, the jobs bill is moving forward, and financial reform is coming together.
President Obama will apparently be embracing ideas on tort reform and cost control in his new legislation that he will be unveiling sometime tomorrow that will take the "best" ideas from last week's health care summit.
The way forward on health care is not to make it more ambitious, which is a solid strategy the White House is employing. Speaker Pelosi only passed their more liberal version of health care reform with two votes to spare (and that includes one GOP vote that is now dissenting,) so the hope is that a more scaled down bill that costs less and even contains some GOP goodies like medical malpractice reform and major cost control measures will be enough to get 6 or 7 more moderate Democrats who had initially voted no to switch their votes. Measures like tort reform and the ability to purchase insurance plans across state lines have been in the standard Republican talking points for months, and the White House will be daring the GOP to vote against something their party has advocated for nearly 30 years.
Kentucky GOP Senator Jim Bunning, who has long been a thorn in the side of his leadership, made several of his colleagues wince yesterday when he went on a tirade to reporters asking him why he is single handedly blocking a widely popular extension of unemployment benefits, COBRA benefits, medicare reimbursements for physicians, a highway trust fund extension, and many other programs that both parties actually like. Bunning may have unwittingly blunted much of the progress and momentum his party has been enjoying recently, and his actions seem only to be perpetuating the commonly held public view that the Republican Party is needlessly jamming up the government for political gain. Senator Harry Reid could kiss him, although he himself doesn't enjoy a rosy relationship with the press, he has at least never flipped off a reporter in the halls of the US Capitol.
President Obama will apparently be embracing ideas on tort reform and cost control in his new legislation that he will be unveiling sometime tomorrow that will take the "best" ideas from last week's health care summit.
The way forward on health care is not to make it more ambitious, which is a solid strategy the White House is employing. Speaker Pelosi only passed their more liberal version of health care reform with two votes to spare (and that includes one GOP vote that is now dissenting,) so the hope is that a more scaled down bill that costs less and even contains some GOP goodies like medical malpractice reform and major cost control measures will be enough to get 6 or 7 more moderate Democrats who had initially voted no to switch their votes. Measures like tort reform and the ability to purchase insurance plans across state lines have been in the standard Republican talking points for months, and the White House will be daring the GOP to vote against something their party has advocated for nearly 30 years.
Kentucky GOP Senator Jim Bunning, who has long been a thorn in the side of his leadership, made several of his colleagues wince yesterday when he went on a tirade to reporters asking him why he is single handedly blocking a widely popular extension of unemployment benefits, COBRA benefits, medicare reimbursements for physicians, a highway trust fund extension, and many other programs that both parties actually like. Bunning may have unwittingly blunted much of the progress and momentum his party has been enjoying recently, and his actions seem only to be perpetuating the commonly held public view that the Republican Party is needlessly jamming up the government for political gain. Senator Harry Reid could kiss him, although he himself doesn't enjoy a rosy relationship with the press, he has at least never flipped off a reporter in the halls of the US Capitol.
Friday, February 19, 2010
GOP surge
At the CPAC conference yesterday there was a palpable sense that maybe things are starting to go Republicans' way. In May of last year Time Magazine had a cover story about the Republican Party as an "endangered species;" just 9 months later, their fortunes have suddenly turned a complete 180 as an anti-incumbent wave has hit middle America and Democrats' inability to get anything passed has seen their poll numbers drop considerably.
Minority Leader John Boehner spent a good amount of time during his speech explaining how a "Speaker Boehner" would run the house, bold prognostications that would've been unheard of even a few months ago. A pretty nerdy breakdown of competitive House races according to Congressional Quarterly was just released and can be found HERE. Prospects don't look good for Democrats and the CW has been changing in a real way that the Democrats' 4 year hold on congress is in significant danger. With just 9 months to go before the election, they will be potentially vulnerable in a whopping 95 districts, over a third of their whole caucus, with many political strategists saying the chances are good that they could lose close to half of them.
An article today in Politico talks about President Obama's fundraising trip for Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in Las Vegas today, and how much their fortunes are tied together. They need eachother for their political survival, and this bosom-buddies story just goes to show how desperate things have really gotten for the Democratic Party.
Minority Leader John Boehner spent a good amount of time during his speech explaining how a "Speaker Boehner" would run the house, bold prognostications that would've been unheard of even a few months ago. A pretty nerdy breakdown of competitive House races according to Congressional Quarterly was just released and can be found HERE. Prospects don't look good for Democrats and the CW has been changing in a real way that the Democrats' 4 year hold on congress is in significant danger. With just 9 months to go before the election, they will be potentially vulnerable in a whopping 95 districts, over a third of their whole caucus, with many political strategists saying the chances are good that they could lose close to half of them.
An article today in Politico talks about President Obama's fundraising trip for Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid in Las Vegas today, and how much their fortunes are tied together. They need eachother for their political survival, and this bosom-buddies story just goes to show how desperate things have really gotten for the Democratic Party.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Are Democrats Losing Ground on National Security?
The last few weeks have been slow on political news, first with Washington DC shut down due to snowstorms on the east coast and now with intense media focus on the Vancouver Olympic Games. President Obama is using today to unveil his unsexy plan for a bipartisan committee focused on reducing the deficit while at the same time seeming to allow America’s wave of recent progress in capturing Taliban leaders go relatively unnoticed.
Greg Sergeant over at The Plum Line argued today that downplaying the Obama Administration’s successes in fighting the “war on terror” could prove to be a major mistake come mid-term election time. Republicans are already pushing talking points to attack Democrats on national security issues, which plays nicely into the narrative that former Vice President Dick Cheney has more or less been pushing since Obama’s inauguration.
Vice President Joe Biden in particular has been the Democrats’ first line of defense in responding to Cheney’s criticisms, although it’s possible that the White House is losing ground on the narrative concerning national security as they continue to focus on tackling the economy, health care, and the deficit. If Democrats continue to downplay their successes with national security, they are likely to lose out come election time.
Greg Sergeant over at The Plum Line argued today that downplaying the Obama Administration’s successes in fighting the “war on terror” could prove to be a major mistake come mid-term election time. Republicans are already pushing talking points to attack Democrats on national security issues, which plays nicely into the narrative that former Vice President Dick Cheney has more or less been pushing since Obama’s inauguration.
Vice President Joe Biden in particular has been the Democrats’ first line of defense in responding to Cheney’s criticisms, although it’s possible that the White House is losing ground on the narrative concerning national security as they continue to focus on tackling the economy, health care, and the deficit. If Democrats continue to downplay their successes with national security, they are likely to lose out come election time.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
SOTU Response and reaction
You have to feel bad for anyone that has to follow the President with their party's rebuttal to the annual State Of The Union Address, especially after last night's from Obama was a little longer than usual and featured as gifted an orator as Obama.
Bob McDonnell of Virginia gave a decent response though, hitting all the right talking points for his party and showing himself to be a fresh face on a party currently on the rise. He wasn't combative, and as a moderate next door to Washington, there's probably a lot he and the President can share. It seems that the GOP theme right now is that they have Obama and The Democrats right where they want them and so now is not the time for the cooperation the president called for in his speech. It may be good optics to work through compromises on health care and jobs, but it's not smart politics when you can just delay and obstruct as long as possible, hoping that your party can be the one making the rules within the next year.
Here's some more reaction to Obama's state of the Union: NY Times, Washington Post, The Atlantic, And I thought Jonathan Chait from The New Republic had a great analysis here.
In short: It wasn't soaring or lofty or inspriational, or claiming any of the usual adjectives assigned to Obama's other high profile speeches. However it did have some of the neccessary energy he needed to unite his nervous party, and sober plans for bipartisanship and middle of the road concessions that appeal to independent voters.
Bob McDonnell of Virginia gave a decent response though, hitting all the right talking points for his party and showing himself to be a fresh face on a party currently on the rise. He wasn't combative, and as a moderate next door to Washington, there's probably a lot he and the President can share. It seems that the GOP theme right now is that they have Obama and The Democrats right where they want them and so now is not the time for the cooperation the president called for in his speech. It may be good optics to work through compromises on health care and jobs, but it's not smart politics when you can just delay and obstruct as long as possible, hoping that your party can be the one making the rules within the next year.
Here's some more reaction to Obama's state of the Union: NY Times, Washington Post, The Atlantic, And I thought Jonathan Chait from The New Republic had a great analysis here.
In short: It wasn't soaring or lofty or inspriational, or claiming any of the usual adjectives assigned to Obama's other high profile speeches. However it did have some of the neccessary energy he needed to unite his nervous party, and sober plans for bipartisanship and middle of the road concessions that appeal to independent voters.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
SOTU continued - change won't be easy
Obama is going for the big finish and trying to come back around to his campaign theme of change.
It's a new year. A new decade. We don't quit!
That's it.
It's a new year. A new decade. We don't quit!
That's it.
SOTU continued - civil rights
Will Obama bring up Don't Ask, Don't Tell tonight?
Yep, he just did. Obama says he will work with congress to repeal the law this year.
And then Obama quickly moves on to mention about immigration and then talks extensively about restoring trust in American institutions.
Yep, he just did. Obama says he will work with congress to repeal the law this year.
And then Obama quickly moves on to mention about immigration and then talks extensively about restoring trust in American institutions.
SOTU continued - national security
There's not much new to say on this front:
Combat troops out of Iraq by Aug 2010, but will continue to partner with the Iraqi people. "This war is ending and all of our troops are coming home."
Obama wants to finalize an arms control treaty with Russia, and tell Iran that they will face growing consequences for pursuing their nuclear ambitions.
Combat troops out of Iraq by Aug 2010, but will continue to partner with the Iraqi people. "This war is ending and all of our troops are coming home."
Obama wants to finalize an arms control treaty with Russia, and tell Iran that they will face growing consequences for pursuing their nuclear ambitions.
SOTU continued - bipartisanship
Obama calls on congress to get along. He sounds disingenuous here even though he says he wants to change the tone of Washington politics. He reminds Democrats that they still have a majority and are expected to accomplish something. To republicans: "Just saying no to everything is not leadership."
SOTU continued - gov't spending
Obama points the finger at G.W. for the national deficit, specifically mentioning the 2 wars and the prescription drug program.
What Obama wants to do to cut government spending:
-freeze government spending on domestic programs for 3 years starting in 2011 (except for military spending and senior entitlement programs.
-no tax cuts for big business and individuals making over $250K a year
-Obama announces an executive order to create a commission to reduce the deficit because congress wouldn't pass it
-reinstate the PayGo Law that restricted government spending in the past
Obama hits hard against Republicans, reminding the public that Republican ideas where what got the US into the current economic crisis over the last 8 years.
"Let's try common sense." - Obama is certainly trying to come across as fighter tonight.
Obama is going back to attacking lobbyists even though he ended up hiring lobbyists into his administration himself and also calls for earmark reform. He asks for all earmark requests to be published online before congress votes on any new bills.
What Obama wants to do to cut government spending:
-freeze government spending on domestic programs for 3 years starting in 2011 (except for military spending and senior entitlement programs.
-no tax cuts for big business and individuals making over $250K a year
-Obama announces an executive order to create a commission to reduce the deficit because congress wouldn't pass it
-reinstate the PayGo Law that restricted government spending in the past
Obama hits hard against Republicans, reminding the public that Republican ideas where what got the US into the current economic crisis over the last 8 years.
"Let's try common sense." - Obama is certainly trying to come across as fighter tonight.
Obama is going back to attacking lobbyists even though he ended up hiring lobbyists into his administration himself and also calls for earmark reform. He asks for all earmark requests to be published online before congress votes on any new bills.
SOTU continued - HEALTH CARE REFORM
Obama finally got around to mentioning health care reform. He is trying to make the point that he took on health care reform because it is necessary, not because it was good politics.
He taking great pains to sell the public on health care reform. I wonder though if the people with the most doubt about the reform bill are even watching tonight. The president acknowledges that he didn't do enough to keep the facts straight about the reform bill. He tells congress that they have to stick with pursuing health care reform, asking them to take another look at the health care bill and calls on both democrats and republicans to basically let the president know if they have any better ideas.
"Finish the job for the American people. Let's get it done."
He taking great pains to sell the public on health care reform. I wonder though if the people with the most doubt about the reform bill are even watching tonight. The president acknowledges that he didn't do enough to keep the facts straight about the reform bill. He tells congress that they have to stick with pursuing health care reform, asking them to take another look at the health care bill and calls on both democrats and republicans to basically let the president know if they have any better ideas.
"Finish the job for the American people. Let's get it done."
SOTU continued - education
Obama is now talking about education reform. He wants to improve not only primary education but also community colleges. He still hasn't mentioned the spending freeze on domestic programs.
Obama pledges that college grads will not have to pay more than 10% of their income repaying student loans. Student loans will be forgiven after 20 years and in 10 years for folks who work in the public sector.
Obama pledges that college grads will not have to pay more than 10% of their income repaying student loans. Student loans will be forgiven after 20 years and in 10 years for folks who work in the public sector.
SOTU continued - financial reform
Obama pledges that he will not sign a financial reform bill unless it calls for real reform.
I think Obama is using the State of the Union Address to remind the country of what he has accomplished in the past year. Even though a congressional magazine rated him the most accomplished first-year president in history, Obama still fights the perception that he hasn't accomplished anything.
Obama's assertion that climate change is real gets the first boo of the night from congress. Obama counters by pointing out that whether climate change is real or not, there is money to made in clean energy.
Obama also pledged to double the number of US exports over the next five years, calling it a "national export initiative." Hear that world? Obama wants you to buy American stuff (especially Asia).
There's a lot riding on Obama's speech tonight. I don't know what the reaction will be, in my opinion, this is not his most compelling speech.
I think Obama is using the State of the Union Address to remind the country of what he has accomplished in the past year. Even though a congressional magazine rated him the most accomplished first-year president in history, Obama still fights the perception that he hasn't accomplished anything.
Obama's assertion that climate change is real gets the first boo of the night from congress. Obama counters by pointing out that whether climate change is real or not, there is money to made in clean energy.
Obama also pledged to double the number of US exports over the next five years, calling it a "national export initiative." Hear that world? Obama wants you to buy American stuff (especially Asia).
There's a lot riding on Obama's speech tonight. I don't know what the reaction will be, in my opinion, this is not his most compelling speech.
SOTU continued - economy & jobs
"Jobs" appear to be the buzzword of the night for Obama.
"China's not waiting to revamp it's economy." Obama points to America's competitors as a source of the last several decades of increasing job losses.
"China's not waiting to revamp it's economy." Obama points to America's competitors as a source of the last several decades of increasing job losses.
SOTU continued - trains and energy
It was just announced today that Obama planned on sending $8 billion from the Recovery Act to invest in high speed trains, and Obama is mentioning it now in his address.
But now.. back to the Jobs Bill..
But now.. back to the Jobs Bill..
SOTU continued - it's the economy, stupid!
Obama admits that he and everyone else in Washington "hated" the bank bailout, but claims that it was necessary. Laying into the banking industry and Wall Street, which are popular bad guys right now, got Obama a standing ovation from the room.
Points on the economy -
Tax cuts: Obama reminds the public that he cut taxes but the comment got stonewalled by the republicans while democrats applauded.
Recovery Act (Stimulus Bill): Obama calls the stimulus bill a success claiming that it saved jobs and created new "green jobs," and that because of the bill the economy is growing again.
Jobs: Obama acknowledges that job growth has lagged behind the economy and called for a new jobs bill.
Obama also proposed taking the $30 billion repaid by banks and invest it in helping community banks lend to small businesses.
Points on the economy -
Tax cuts: Obama reminds the public that he cut taxes but the comment got stonewalled by the republicans while democrats applauded.
Recovery Act (Stimulus Bill): Obama calls the stimulus bill a success claiming that it saved jobs and created new "green jobs," and that because of the bill the economy is growing again.
Jobs: Obama acknowledges that job growth has lagged behind the economy and called for a new jobs bill.
Obama also proposed taking the $30 billion repaid by banks and invest it in helping community banks lend to small businesses.
Obama's State of the Union Address - Live Blog
Obama kicked off his SOTU address by reminding the public that he came into office last year in the midst of 2 wars, a major depression, and a collapse of the financial system. He is trying to make an appeal to the public that he feels their pain, which is probably as a good move because he is often portrayed in the media as having a tin ear. Obama also delved into a popular theme from his campaign - rising about the "small politics" in Washington to get things done. And then mentioned perhaps the biggest theme from his campaign - HOPE.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Obama speaking out after MA election
In an interview today with George Stephanopolis, President Obama spoke out on his vision for the future of health care reform now that the Democrats no longer hold a super-majority in the senate. Although there are those in the media urging the House to rush the vote and approve the Senate’s bill before Scott Brown is seated, Obama stated that Brown should be included in the vote. The president also brought up one of his most often repeated talking points regarding health care reform – his claim that both democrats and republicans agree on 90% of what’s in the health care bill, and called on congress to quickly pass bi-partisan legislation that includes that agreed-upon majority of the bill.
A NYTimes article came out this afternoon claiming that Obama’s statement was a signal to congress to give up on trying to achieve universal health care for nearly all Americans, but I think that interpretation of the president’s interview is still open to debate. President Obama is sure to expand on his desire to sign health care reform legislation into law during his State of the Union address next Wednesday.
A NYTimes article came out this afternoon claiming that Obama’s statement was a signal to congress to give up on trying to achieve universal health care for nearly all Americans, but I think that interpretation of the president’s interview is still open to debate. President Obama is sure to expand on his desire to sign health care reform legislation into law during his State of the Union address next Wednesday.
Democrats search for a way forward after Massachusetts special election
President Obama and The Democratic Party were dealt a pretty stiff blow last night, not just because of the bad press and internal finger pointing that their party will now be subjected too after losing last night's special election, but also because panicked Democratic lawmakers, who already have a tendency to be nervous and think often in terms of "doomsday scenarios," will now feel a desire to blow off their entire ambitious agenda hoping not to be the next "Martha Coakley" in their state or district.
For The President, his image is somewhat dented, but he is still +1 Senator in Congress than he was when he was inaugurated exactly one year ago today (he was inaugurated before Arlen Specter switched parties and also before Al Franken was seated.) Any president would gladly take a 59 seat majority for their party in the Senate, and I think the White House still sees it that way to a certain point, but they have a lot of cold facts to face now:
1) This is no longer 2009, and in just over 10 months every single Democrat in the house will be up for re-election, and anything that has a whiff of being unpopular in their district will be a "no-go" (and that includes health care.)
2) After Martha Coakley's lethargic and gaffe-prone campaign, many in the DNC and also in the Congressional campaign arms, may rethink a lot of the candidates they have vying for open seats and will also have to deal with many competitive primaries as incumbent Democrats will face battles within their own parties for something of a "fresh face."
3) Democrats will be fighting to keep their agenda from being seen as "crumbling," and will try to tout as many accomplishments as they can, however, since they've been working on this health care bill for nearly a year, the accomplishment load will seem pretty light. This is inevitably a paradox and could cause Dems to spend months going back and forth between "we should pass health care now" and "we should start over," (which of course will feed the "crumbling agenda" storyline.)
Politico posted an interesting read here that sums up the new fear gripping the party: "if they can lose in Massachusetts, they can lose anywhere" and unfortunately for Obama and whatever broader agenda he has now, nothing that he says to try and soothe his party or corral votes on his issues will measure up to that one statement for the rest of the year.
For The President, his image is somewhat dented, but he is still +1 Senator in Congress than he was when he was inaugurated exactly one year ago today (he was inaugurated before Arlen Specter switched parties and also before Al Franken was seated.) Any president would gladly take a 59 seat majority for their party in the Senate, and I think the White House still sees it that way to a certain point, but they have a lot of cold facts to face now:
1) This is no longer 2009, and in just over 10 months every single Democrat in the house will be up for re-election, and anything that has a whiff of being unpopular in their district will be a "no-go" (and that includes health care.)
2) After Martha Coakley's lethargic and gaffe-prone campaign, many in the DNC and also in the Congressional campaign arms, may rethink a lot of the candidates they have vying for open seats and will also have to deal with many competitive primaries as incumbent Democrats will face battles within their own parties for something of a "fresh face."
3) Democrats will be fighting to keep their agenda from being seen as "crumbling," and will try to tout as many accomplishments as they can, however, since they've been working on this health care bill for nearly a year, the accomplishment load will seem pretty light. This is inevitably a paradox and could cause Dems to spend months going back and forth between "we should pass health care now" and "we should start over," (which of course will feed the "crumbling agenda" storyline.)
Politico posted an interesting read here that sums up the new fear gripping the party: "if they can lose in Massachusetts, they can lose anywhere" and unfortunately for Obama and whatever broader agenda he has now, nothing that he says to try and soothe his party or corral votes on his issues will measure up to that one statement for the rest of the year.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Massachusetts special Senate election goes national
A lot of attention has been paid to the special Senate election going on in Massachusetts. Martha Coakley, the state's Attorney General, and the Democratic candidate, is vying to become the new junior senator from the Bay State to fill the seat vacated by Ted Kennedy after his death last year.
In a state with an overwhelming Democratic voter registration edge that hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, Coakley's election should've been a breeze, and up until now, the White House, and other Democratic power players have largely written off the election as a given, not thinking anything could go wrong in the election to fill a seat once filled by Kennedy for almost 50 years.
Enter Scott Brown, a relatively unkown Republican state senator that was polling nearly 30 points down at the beginning of the race who is proving to be a serious contender, raising serious cash, getting serious momentum, and giving an already nervous Democratic establishment serious heartburn. A Suffolk University poll released today shows Brown edging ahead of Coakley and almost all reputable political reports are showing the race to be a "toss up." Almost unheard of for what should be a safe Democratic hold.
National staff from both parties have been converging on the state for the past two weeks with Republicans saying it's a referendum on Obama's weakening national agenda and the unpopular health care reform bills on the verge of passage in congress. Democrats, who secretly seem to agree that Coakley wasn't as strong of a candidate as they thought, are trying over and over to make sure everyone in the deep blue Massachusetts electorate knows that Scott Brown is a Republican! (Gasp!)
A Brown upset would do HUGE damage to the national Democratic party, and give the GOP a strong wind at their backs as they go into 2010. Not only would it endanger the passage of Democrats' top domestic priority, but it could throw a giant can of gasoline on a media narrative fire that says the national Democratic brand is weak at best and could cause a flood of retirements, creating an opening for a huge Republican takeover of congress; and could bring President Obama's legislative agenda to a screeching halt as anxious lawmakers refuse to touch anything that could seem remotely controversial.
It's making for great political theater and I highly suggest everyone watch this story closely.
*UPDATE* Given the graven implications for his agenda, the White House has indicated that President Obama will indeed visit the state Sunday night to campaign for Coakley. This is definitely a risky move for him, as a Coakley loss will reflect very poorly on him and weaken him further, and Republicans (much like their triumphs last year in New Jersey and Virginia) will spin the loss as a further referendum on him and his agenda, but would be harder for dems to spin even if she wins, since they should've coasted into the seat anyway.
In a state with an overwhelming Democratic voter registration edge that hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972, Coakley's election should've been a breeze, and up until now, the White House, and other Democratic power players have largely written off the election as a given, not thinking anything could go wrong in the election to fill a seat once filled by Kennedy for almost 50 years.
Enter Scott Brown, a relatively unkown Republican state senator that was polling nearly 30 points down at the beginning of the race who is proving to be a serious contender, raising serious cash, getting serious momentum, and giving an already nervous Democratic establishment serious heartburn. A Suffolk University poll released today shows Brown edging ahead of Coakley and almost all reputable political reports are showing the race to be a "toss up." Almost unheard of for what should be a safe Democratic hold.
National staff from both parties have been converging on the state for the past two weeks with Republicans saying it's a referendum on Obama's weakening national agenda and the unpopular health care reform bills on the verge of passage in congress. Democrats, who secretly seem to agree that Coakley wasn't as strong of a candidate as they thought, are trying over and over to make sure everyone in the deep blue Massachusetts electorate knows that Scott Brown is a Republican! (Gasp!)
A Brown upset would do HUGE damage to the national Democratic party, and give the GOP a strong wind at their backs as they go into 2010. Not only would it endanger the passage of Democrats' top domestic priority, but it could throw a giant can of gasoline on a media narrative fire that says the national Democratic brand is weak at best and could cause a flood of retirements, creating an opening for a huge Republican takeover of congress; and could bring President Obama's legislative agenda to a screeching halt as anxious lawmakers refuse to touch anything that could seem remotely controversial.
It's making for great political theater and I highly suggest everyone watch this story closely.
*UPDATE* Given the graven implications for his agenda, the White House has indicated that President Obama will indeed visit the state Sunday night to campaign for Coakley. This is definitely a risky move for him, as a Coakley loss will reflect very poorly on him and weaken him further, and Republicans (much like their triumphs last year in New Jersey and Virginia) will spin the loss as a further referendum on him and his agenda, but would be harder for dems to spin even if she wins, since they should've coasted into the seat anyway.
Will the GOP retake the house in 2010?
Republicans say it's possible
Democrats say not so fast
I think this argument is actually going to go back and forth all the way up until election day, it’ll also be good to note how many more retirements there will be and if approval for the health bill ticks up after it’s passed. This depends all on how Democrats can successfully sell the benefits of the new law while painting Republicans as oppositionists and obstructionists, Obama’s popularity also has to go back up into at least the mid 50’s, if the majority of Americans have a positive view of the head of the Democratic party, then losses will be less substantial.
Republicans also have a long way to go to rebrand themselves as being ready to govern again, as their own party favorables are still way down.
Democrats say not so fast
I think this argument is actually going to go back and forth all the way up until election day, it’ll also be good to note how many more retirements there will be and if approval for the health bill ticks up after it’s passed. This depends all on how Democrats can successfully sell the benefits of the new law while painting Republicans as oppositionists and obstructionists, Obama’s popularity also has to go back up into at least the mid 50’s, if the majority of Americans have a positive view of the head of the Democratic party, then losses will be less substantial.
Republicans also have a long way to go to rebrand themselves as being ready to govern again, as their own party favorables are still way down.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Pelosi gains leverage
While Harry Reid desperately tries to salvage his political career and his leadership position after his infamous "negro dialect" remarks during then Senator Obama's early presidential campaign; Nancy Pelosi sees an opening to get more out of what she wants in conference negotiations on Health Care.
After weeks of having been told the house (which narrowly passed a more liberal health care bill in November) would have to basically roll over for the more carefully deliberated and moderate Senate bill, she is now focused more on getting actual pieces of her own bill into the Senate version of health reform.
However, all of these deliberations could cause Democrats to blow self imposed deadline and not be finished with the bill by President Obama's State of The Union address, which is slated for early February.
This delaying move could be a dangerous strategy for The Democrats, and it may be embarrassing for Obama that his top domestic priority wasn't finished by his first state of the union. The president is supposed to be laying out his vision for the coming year and it could seem that he's still focused on "old business" while the country continues to reel from double digit unemployment and the government's stimulus efforts are seen as less effective and the president's own approval continues to drop.
After weeks of having been told the house (which narrowly passed a more liberal health care bill in November) would have to basically roll over for the more carefully deliberated and moderate Senate bill, she is now focused more on getting actual pieces of her own bill into the Senate version of health reform.
However, all of these deliberations could cause Democrats to blow self imposed deadline and not be finished with the bill by President Obama's State of The Union address, which is slated for early February.
This delaying move could be a dangerous strategy for The Democrats, and it may be embarrassing for Obama that his top domestic priority wasn't finished by his first state of the union. The president is supposed to be laying out his vision for the coming year and it could seem that he's still focused on "old business" while the country continues to reel from double digit unemployment and the government's stimulus efforts are seen as less effective and the president's own approval continues to drop.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
GOP in 2010
Heading into the first week of 2010, speculation has already begun over what the mid-term elections could have in store for the GOP. Even though GOP chairman Michael Steele said in an interview this morning that he didn’t think the GOP would win back the majority in the house this year, others within the GOP are planning to use the public’s unhappiness over the health care reform debate and Obama’s sliding poll numbers as leverage to win back seats lost in 2008.
Furthermore, NYTimes columnist David Brooks predicted in an op-ed today that the tea party movement will continue to gain momentum and could have a long term influence on the republican party. He notes that there are already republicans in office clamoring to be the unofficial leader of the movement, and the tea party-ers could either give the GOP a much needed boost of passion or totally tear the party apart by alienating its’ more moderate members.
Furthermore, NYTimes columnist David Brooks predicted in an op-ed today that the tea party movement will continue to gain momentum and could have a long term influence on the republican party. He notes that there are already republicans in office clamoring to be the unofficial leader of the movement, and the tea party-ers could either give the GOP a much needed boost of passion or totally tear the party apart by alienating its’ more moderate members.
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