Today's polls 9/15

With the election being only 6 weeks away, there's going to be a huge block of polling released en masse up until November, with new battleground polling probably released everyday, even today, there's been 3 different Ohio polls released and all from respectable polling firms, there's also polling that's been released from Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, Florida, and two polls from Virginia. If there had been any new Michigan numbers, then pretty much every single key state in this election would've been surveyed.
Let's start with Ohio, "the" state to win, if Obama wins here it's over, Republicans can't win without Ohio, and they have been targeting this state hard as of late. But for Obama, despite having over 70 field offices, an enthusiastic grassroots machine that's been in place all summer, a well funded ground game, and Hillary Clinton's presence in the state over the weekend, not a single poll released today shows him ahead, but Ohio, being a bellweather, seems to shift with the National polls and McCain is averaging about a 3 point lead there, which is just a hair above his national numbers. Obama was leading in almost every Ohio poll as recently as three weeks ago, and a Quinnipiac poll last week showed Obama ahead by four points, now it looks like, unless something happens, this all or nothing state could be out of Obama's grasp.
Pennsylvania showed some surprise polling here with a Fox News/Rasumussen poll showing the race at a literal tie. Now, much like the Minnesota poll that came out this weekend that also showed a tie, I wouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, although Obama's numbers have slipped in the Keystone State, as they've been slipping across the board, I think Obama still has an edge here, and probably will stay about 3-5 points ahead until November, his presence there during the Democratic primary did a lot to register new voters and get the citizens of Pennsylvania a good look at him, and I think that his attention to the state in April was precious for his campaign and can only hurt McCain.
Colorado has been on the top of everyone's list as one of the main battleground states this year, although it only has 9 electoral votes, the race right now is such that every state counts, (why do you think the Obama campaign is seriously trying to contest Montana?) The Fox News/Rasmussen poll released today shows McCain +2. Both Obama and Sarah Palin are in the state over the next two days, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of numbers we see at the end of this week, the state stands as a toss up right now, with earlier polling showing Obama with as much as a 4 point lead.
Florida has been covered on this blog very heavily, and I've said it here before, despite Obama's huge investments in the Sunshine State, it looks like America's wang will stay reliably red, today's polls show McCain ahead here by about 5 points, which is consistent with some of the good numbers he's been posting here lately, I think perhaps Obama's money may be spent better somewhere else. The surprising numbers on the Fox News/Rasmussen poll are the internals, which show Obama with some of his worst percentages amongst democrats out of all the polls released today, going to show that the Hillary loyalists down in Florida may not have gotten the memo.
Virginia is probably my favorite state to cover when I'm talking about polling, it's an exciting story, a former GOP bastion that's turned into a hard fought, legitimate battleground, and I'm pretty sure it could be the Ohio of 2008. And the Obama campaign has spared no expense here, a huge voter registration effort has been going on here for months and Obama knows it's a state he really needs to lockdown, especially with the race as close as it is, and despite McCain's increasingly impressive performance in national and state polling over the past couple of weeks, Virginia has been leaning Obama today, with the Fox News/Rasmussen poll showing The Old Dominion as a literal tie, and a SurveyUSA poll showing Obama ahead by 4 points. Now, McCain only started advertising here recently, and the CNN/Time poll released last week showed McCain ahead by 4 points, so, the constant back and forth in polling shows that Virginia, like Colorado, is really anyone's game, and unless something drastic happens between now and November 4th. It's going to come down to turnout and ground game, two things the Obama campaign is hoping they have the advantage on.
I wouldn't sell McCain short though, it's rare that a candidate himself funds the ground game and grassroots GOTV efforts, as the candidates money is better spent on advertising and staffing, it's usually the respective parties that keep those field offices open and fund those voter turnout machines, and right now the Republican National Committee is dwarfing the DNC in terms of money, McCain + The Republicans have roughly $150 million dollars on hand, including McCain's $84 million in public financing, which means although Obama has been smashing fundrasing records and will likely destroy McCain in money he'll be able to spend, the DNC remains a dead anchor to the Obama campaign, barely able to hold it's weight, struggling to meet financial goals, and spreading itself thin trying to fund Howard Dean's 50 state strategy, this is something to keep your eyes on, because if Obama has to spend his own money picking up his party's committee's slack, then he could be in for a world of trouble come late October.