Monday, September 8, 2008

Today's polls 9/8

I'm still not going to do an in-depth analysis of the polling until later this week, because I want to see if McCain's convention bounce is going to hold like Bill Clinton's did in 1992, or fade like Kerry's (and Gore's) did in 2004.
There are however, a plethora of new battleground state polls are out today, and the results seem to be pretty consistent with today's national polls.
Fox News/Rasmussen has a smattering of swing state polls showing Ohio +7 for McCain, Virginia +2 for McCain, Florida is showed as a literal tie with Pennsylvania +2 for Obama and Colorado +3 for Obama.
Besides Florida these numbers seem pretty consistent with McCain's post-convention bounce polling, especially Ohio, which as a bellweather state, seems to follow the national numbers moreso than the other states listed above. Florida is the only real anamoly here, as it has polled positively for McCain pretty consistently throughout the summer and has always seemed just out of reach for Obama whether for demographic reasons, or reasons of party ID. Perhaps Hillary's recent stumping there has actually paid off. I still don't see Florida as winnable for Obama, but it's the only state listed above where his numbers have actually improved.
Everytime a candidate that's leading loses his lead there is a huge gasping for new polling in the media so I think that this won't be the last day with a huge smashing of new polling.
Quinnipiac hasn't released new numbers in a while, nor has Survey USA, so I think over the next couple of days we're going to see fresh numbers from those firms, most likely in line with the numbers above. Continuing to energize Republicans and discourage Democrats.
But like I said earlier, before we can analyze whether McCain's post-convention bounce will be more or less static, we have to show some patience and wait till either the end of this week or the beginning of next week to see where the race actually stands until the debates.

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