Monday, April 6, 2009

It's a tie!

In last week's special election in New York's 20th Congressional district to replace Democrat Kristin Gillibrand, who was appointed by Gov. Patterson to replace former Senator Hillary Clinton, Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco have achieved something quite odd, their race has produced a statistical tie, literally, as Joe Biden might say.
Although this will change as more absentee ballots are counted and as legal proceedings mount, the current tally shows both candidates with exactly 77,225 votes, a huge statistical anomoly even in modern politics where close elections are sometimes the theme of the day (See: Minnesota Senate Race recount.) It's almost a little baffling to actually think about the probability of this happening when over 150,000 votes are cast.
The subsequent recount will inevitably drag on and on as both Democrats and Republicans gird their loins and line up impressive legal teams to handle their arguments before state courts.
The district has an overwhelming Republican voter registration and Republican party leaders had hoped that a rout here would prove that voters were already rejecting the ambitious spending proposals of President Obama, as Murphy, a local business leader had largely stuck to party-line talking points and came out widely in favor of the stimulus bill and the administration's budget. The district slimly voted for Obama, and Gillibrand, a democrat, was seen by many in the state to be a largely conservative voice for her party. Obama sent an email out to supporters in the district two weeks ago, and Biden did his share, recording robo calls in favor of Murphy.
The legal proceedings and recounts could take months to hash out as neither side will budge and large amounts of party money will be poured into the legal fight on all ends.

No comments: