The convention bounce?

Today's Gallup and Rasmussen show Obama at +8 and +4 respectively, Obama's polling numbers haven't been that high for almost 2 months. (Rasumssen has generally had a more conservative number for Obama throught the summer than it's counterpart.) Showing that the Democratic convention did its job.
He should enjoy it while he can, because after a week straight of Republicans uniting against him with their combined fury at their own convention, that lead should deteriorate drastically.
If however, it doesn't, and Obama's fresh lead holds, then the McCain campaign is in serious trouble and will look to the debates as a last desperate gamble to prove their point that Obama isn't ready to handle tough questions and serious issues.

Obama in Guinness

AP Reports That 38 million people tuned into Obama's acceptance speech last night at Invesco "Mile high" Field.
This beats the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, the "American Idol" finale, and the Academy awards.
It also creates a new world record for most watched night of a convention for any party in the history of televised politics.
Those who watched on C-Span and PBS are not included in this number.

The American lexicon

Watch for the term "Hillary Voter" to become a new demographic the pundits gleefully beat to death, i.e "Soccer Mom", "Nascar dad," or "Reagan Democrat."

Sarah Palin, pro's and cons

Like I did last week when Romney was the presumptive presumptive vice-presidential nominee, and Biden too, when he was chosen. Here's a rundown of Gov. Palin's pros and cons.

Pro's

-- Fires up conservative base, even Rush Limbaugh sings her praises.

-- On her own, she offers a good visual for Republicans. Bright, young and energetic, just what the Republican party needs right now.

-- Good background, modest means, has young children, can connect with blue collar Republicans that were waiting for one of their own to join the ticket.

-- Lack of national spotlight and brief but impressive record as governor reinforces the "true reformer" message McCain will be drumming out next week at the convention.

-- Maybe, just MAYBE she'll be able to bring over some embittered Hillary supporters that weren't convinced by the Democratic Convention's gushing displays of unity and are now impressed that it was McCain, not Obama, who put a woman on his ticket.

Con's

-- McCain can throw the experience argument right out the window for the rest of the campaign.

-- The visuals of the two together is incredibly awkward, when they embraced today it looked like McCain was hugging his daughter.

-- Who?

-- She will be under immense pressure to answer hard hitting foreign policy questions without sounding scripted and show experience and judgment in matters that she is likely to not be very knowledgable on.

-- The Alaskan Republican machine is notoriously corrupt, (See: Stevens, Ted) and she needs to prove she is untarnished by it's workings. (Much like Obama has had to do with Chicago)

-- Obama has had 19 months to introduce himself to America, answer to tough scrutiny, and present his agenda as a largely unkown political figure. Sarah Palin will have just shy of 67 days to accomplish all of the above.

Food for thought

What would the mainstream media say if Hillary was the nominee instead of Obama, and McCain picked a young African American male conservative with no real executive experience to join his ticket?

Sarah Palin's Ethics Investigation

Since I posted a link a few days ago about Joe Biden's past plagiarism problems, here's a story from the NYTimes about Sarah Palin's ethics issues of her own.

Apparently there is an ethics investigation currently underway to see if the governor unfairly fired a top law enforcement official after he refused to fire a state trooper who was in the midst of a messy divorce with Palin's sister.

Sounds juicy.

Meet Sarah Palin

McCain's pick for VP, Sarah Palin, is a bit of a dark horse. Timothy Egan of the NYTimes, wrote this interesting bio on her today.

In the days ahead, many questions will be stirring in MediaLand. Why did McCain pick a VP with so little experience when lack of experience seems to be his opponent's Achilles heel? Will women who were thinking of voting for McCain after Hillary didn't get the nom really go for a woman who doesn't agree with Clinton on a single issue? Does McCain expect women voters to base their vote solely on an appeal to gender? Does McCain's choice for VP show that he's still a maverick or is he caving to pressure from his conservative base to pick a very conservative running mate?

I'd like to know more about Sarah Palin. Timothy Egan's article is a good start and he makes a very interesting point that if some americans consider Hawaii to be a too exotic locale, what will they think of Alaska? Make way for jokes about seal harpoons hanging in the White House...

McCain choses Alaska governor Sarah Palin for VP

more info to come...

Obama's Acceptance Speech

Before the media switches into full-on slobber mode waiting for McCain to announce his VP pick, I just wanted to make some comments on Obama's speech last night at Investco Field.

Last night Obama did a great job showing americans who he is and what he stands for. He left behind some of the soaring rhetoric and toned down the preacher voice and still managed to deliver a powerful speech in which he stuck to his theme of change. Obama railed hard against John McCain and got some zingers in that will surely be replayed as sound bites by the media.

OK, McCain just announced his VP pick...

Meet the Bidens - Joe Biden Give His Convention Speech

Joe Biden just gave his convention speech a few minutes ago. He came off as both a powerful speaker and a down-to-earth all-american guy. His mother, now known to the nation as Mama Biden and the cutest old lady ever, added to the picture Biden tried to paint of himself as a family man and devoted son.

Biden struck out at McCain hard tonight. I think the democrats are ready to really go one the attack. I think the "real" campaign drama is about to begin now that we're in the final stretch of the election.

Barack Obama came out after the speech and spoke a little about Joe Biden and threw some much-deserved kudos out to the Clintons.

PS: Joe Biden was introduced by his son tonight who also made a great speech. I don't think this is the last America will see of Beau Biden either.

Watching the DNC convention

I'm sitting in front of the tv waiting for Joe Biden to speak. Earlier this evening I watched Bill Clinton. Surprisingly, NBC News chose to broadcast from the DNC but didn't show Clinton's speech on the 6PM news. So I watched Bill Clinton's speech on C-SPAN and I thought he did a great job. He made the excellent point that he too was criticized for being too young and inexperienced back in 1992. However, I didn't think Bill Clinton came close to stealing Hillary's thunder from last night. In my opinion, her speech has been the highlight of the convention so far.

One thing I noticed watching C-SPAN is that for all the speculation that Hillary Clinton is bitter and her support of Obama is half-hearted, she sure looks like she's having a lot of fun when they pan out and show her sitting in the audience with her family.

And one more thing, I am sorry to admit it but I turned the tv off and went up the street to get ice cream during John Kerry. I watched the beginning of the speech and he is STILL so wooden and monotone and boring to watch that I didn't think I'd miss much. Personally, I think he should have had a drink before he went out on stage to loosen him up...

15 minutes till Joe Biden!!!

Brian Schweitzer

It'll be hard for Hillary to follow up his folksy, downhome, no nonsense approach.
I hope his introduction to the national stage tonight serves him well. he had the whole convention eating out of his hand like no other candidate yet.
He slammed McCain mercillessly and gave them no room, speaking in a populist and boisterous tone, literally bringing the whole stadium to it's feet at the end.
Footage of Bill Clinton smiling at the end goes to show that he tugged at everyone's heartstrings.
Schweitzer 2016?
I don't think anyone could hold a candle to him were he to run..

Apparently the dems hate Joe Lieberman more than they hate John Edwards right now...

according to this unintentionally hilarious NYTimes report.

Ben Smith is angry

His blog is generally astute and clever and he hardly misses a story.
Here's his take on the first night of the convention with some sharp jabs at the cable networks' fascination with hearing themselves talk.

Worth the click!.

Joe Biden's tears vs. Hillary's

Joe Biden got emotional this morning during an intimate breakfast with Delaware delegates.
Of course this will immediately be compared to Hillary's emotional moment on the eve of the New Hampshire primary that many in the media contribute to her 11th hour squeaker in the Granite State that kept her campaign alive and started the grueling primary back and forth that would consume the next five months.
Not sure how the press will report this though, Hillary received mixed reviews from her moment, with some saying it seemed fake and calculated while others saying it humanized her and brought her back down to Earth.
Biden is quoted in the above article saying he wished that the press hadn't been there, probably thinking in the back of his mind what a sensational story it could turn into, but many will probably conclude that this moment could bring a lot of humanity and contrast to the ticket, since Obama has a much more emotionally detached style, lacking passion for the most part unless he's giving a stirring speech.
Men and tears have not sat well in politics since the average voters generally want strong, resilient men to lead them, plus many of Hillary's supporters cried sexism when the mainstream media gave Hillary's crying story so much coverage.
Now I think the press will largely leave this alone, the man was having a tender moment with his delegation recalling traumatic and horrific experiences from his life, if McCain had a similar moment remembering his POW experiences I would hope he would get a similar pass.

Republicans need attention too

This week the GOP would like to steal a slice of the media attention currently being lavished on the DNC convention.

I don't know if the GOP's attempts to stoke the resentment of Hillary Clinton's supporters is going to work. I watched the DNC convention last night and I thought it was pretty awesome night for all Democrats. Ted Kennedy was great and Michelle Obama (and her brother) did a great job of conveying their middle-class background. My prediction is that the Obama's will succeed at reaching out to middle america between now and November, especially now that Joe Biden is on the ticket!

Jon Stewart is a pleasant surprise at the DNC convention

I love Jon Stewart. Thank you CNN!

This is going to come up again...

Salon published an article today rehashing Joe Biden's problems with plagerism.

For many younger voters, this history is going to be news to them. I think Biden will have to comment on his past at some point during the election. Hopefully he can make his explanation short and sweet and steer clear of digging himself in deeper a la John Edwards.

Dear Hillary Clinton

The media seems to be reveling in the idea that there is an ongoing conflict between Obama and the Clintons that could put a damper on the DNC convention. I wonder how much of this conflict is real and how much of the controversy has been manufactured by the media. Aside from Maureen Dowd's imagined conversations (which I can't say I don't enjoy), I wonder if the Clinton's truly want to throw the baby out with the bath water and wreck havoc on Obama's chance at the presidency. I understand Hillary Clinton has some seriously fierce supporters (who I think are crazy to vote for McCain out of spite), but personally I don't think that is what the Clintons want. In spite of the power and the money and dare I saw CELEBRITY afforded to the Clintons in the past few decades I have a hard time believing that they intend to throw the DNC and their principles under the bus.

I am taking the Obama-Clinton convention controversy with a grain of salt. And Hillary Clinton, if you're out there surfing the web for obscure political blogs, I just want you to know that I think you should come out with your own line of attack ads against John McCain. It's your chance to bring a grenade to a knife fight, it's your chance to remind people not to mess with the Clintons in a way the DNC could appreciate.

Ted Kennedy to speak tonight at the Democratic Convention

This is probably the biggest political story of the day, and will ensure a very emotional night for Democrats.
It will especially help to overshadow the other gnawing story of the day, that Clinton and Obama are still delicately trying to work things out and desperately trying to downplay any negativity that may erupt during the next four days.

Biden gets kind words from State Department, Bush Administration

here you go

It's pretty far off message, especially with the RNC doing everything they can during the convention to hammer the newly minted VP prosepct and keep their negative reviews in the press.
From Crawford, White House Spox Tony Fratto, responding to Secretary Rice's warm words said of Biden: "He's done tremendous work over a long period," adding, "And I know he's been a supporter of Secretary Rice's department." He also went on to say that he was happy for Biden and his family and said that running at the top of a national ticket is a "great honor."

Politico says Obama and Clinton camps still going at it behind the scenes

It's a pretty good read, definitely worth the click

The media has been playing this story for three months and will probably play it right up until the election.
One of the things the story does note and that is reflected in a new CNN poll that will be released tomorrow: Obama's support amongst Hillary supporters has actually gone down since the primary ended in early June.
A fact that reinforces a point I reflected on in my post earlier today that how Obama runs this convention and how he treats the Clinton's will largely decide whether he wins in November or not.
No matter how much wind you have at your back, or what the political climate is, if his party is not completely unified and if he doesn't get at least 85% of the democratic vote, his historic candidacy will be over and the democrats will taste defeat once again.

Frank Rich Manages To Write One Page About Pretty Much Everything

Somehow Frank Rich was able to cite WWII, the Olympics, Hillary Clinton, and whole bunch other stuff in his article about retiring the slogan "Change We Can Believe In." It's a rambler, but it's a goody.

McCain to release new ad targeting Hillary's former supporters

McCain's campaign has made no secret this election that they will make a huge play for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, they've tried subtly over the past few months and are now doing the political equivelency of going all in.
Watching the political shows today, you can see that the McCain campaign's talking points are that the Obama campaign never really considered Hillary for veep and that he is "ignoring her historic candidacy," and is being "downright disrespectful," one spokeswoman from the McCain campaign even said Hillary supporters are feeling like they're "breaking up with the same boyfriend twice." Also saying Hillary supporters aren't going to "blindly flock to someone they know deep down is a rookie at best and has at every turn, snubbed and disrespected Senator Clinton and her historic candidacy and her millions of supporters."
Here is the transcript of the ad released today:

“She won millions of votes. But isn’t on his ticket. Why?” an announcer says in the 30-second spot.

The answer? “For speaking the truth.”

“You never hear the specifics,” Clinton says.

“On the Rezko scandal,” the voice says.

“We still don’t have a lot of answers about Senator Obama,” Clinton says in footage from the primaries.

“Senator Obama’s campaign has become increasingly negative,” Clinton says in another scene.

The announcer closes by saying “The truth hurt. And Obama didn’t like it.”

Now, who knows if this will actually work, it gives both Clintons the opportunity to really hit one out of the park this week at the convention and I think a lot of her supporters will be watching her very closely and paying attention to what she says and how she behaves more than they would McCain surrogates and campaign ads.
Obama has bent over backwards the past two months to make every convenience to the Clintons, it's more than a political neccessity. A lot of hatchets better be buried this week if the democrats want to win.
Obama has a true test of leadership this week and how the Clinton's are treated and how Hillary's supporters feel at the end of this week will probably decide the election in November.

GOP fundraising off of Biden

There are reports that the Obama campaign has raised over $2 million dollars through it's website today, not to be outdone, the Republicans are hitting back with their own fundraising email criticising Biden and playing up the remarks he made last year about Obama's lack of experience.

(Note: McCain has only two more weeks to burn all the cash he has on hand before he accepts public financing after the convention, so look for huge ad buys and general splurging over th nexte couple weeks)

Here is the text of the letter:

Team —

Just hours ago Senator Barack Obama announced he has chosen Senator Joe Biden as his running-mate, adding his own harshest critic to the Democratic ticket. Senator Obama's choice in a running-mate once again brings up his questionable judgment when faced with making major decisions.

Senator Biden doesn't believe that Senator Obama is ready to serve as president. When asked about Senator Obama's lack of experience he said, "The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training." The fact is, there has been no harsher critic of Senator Obama's lack of readiness to serve than his new running-mate, Senator Joe Biden.

Senator Biden has long been a leading critic of Senator Obama's lack of foreign policy experience. He's criticized Senator Obama for his lack of leadership and judgment on Iraq, Afghanistan and his commitment to meet unconditionally with the leaders of rogue states.

We can't risk electing Senator Barack Obama in November and you can make a difference today. Will you make an immediate donation of $25, $50, $150, $250, $500, $1,000 or even $2,300 to our campaign? The money we raise today will go directly to getting the word out - when faced with difficult decisions; Senator Obamalacks the judgment to be our next president and he's simply not ready to lead.

John McCain has made tough, but necessary judgment calls throughout his entire career - always putting country before self interest. He has the experience necessary to serve as our next Commander in Chief. He's ready to lead - ready to put your needs above his own, but he won't win in November without your immediate support. Please join our campaign by making a donation right away.

Sincerely,
Rick Davis
Campaign Manager

P.S. Senator Obama has chosen Senator Joe Biden as his running-mate; a man who doesn't believe he's ready to lead as president. Senator Obama's poor judgment calls indicate he's not ready to lead as president. It's essential for our next president to have good judgment and to put the needs of others above all else. And that friends, is what John McCain has done and is prepared to do for all of us. Please join us today by making a generous donation to ensure a McCain Victory in November.

Ouch.

Liberal democrats out in the blogosphere, far from the mainstream of the party have been trying out a new slogan. "One house. One spouse. Obama/Biden '08"

One thing the media has so far overlooked

Obama Choosing Biden as his VP choice means that the democratic party, for only the second time since 1948, will be running a ticket without a southerner.
I think Obama is going more for rust belt and industrial democrats this time around than their more conservative, southern counterparts. Being from Illinois and focusing a lot more on working class issues this time around, I think he's trying to make a more serious play for states like Ohio and Indiana than say North Carolina or Georgia. Holding on to states like Michigan and Pensylvania, in which he's still holding marginal leads, while maybe writing off the southern states his campaign had earlier said it would work hard for, does say a lot about the campaign's brush with reality these recent weeks as they've seen Obama's numbers come down all across the board.
Swing voters in Ohio and Michigan will probably be easier to persuade to vote for him than say, conservative southern democrats that wrote him off a long time ago and may not pay attention to his ads or his wealth of field offices in their states.
It is a bold move however, especially-- as I wrote about last week -- given the Democratic Pary's obsession with the south.

Joe Biden

Well, the text went out from the Obama campaign last night at 1AM Pacific Time, but those of you like me that have no life, noticed that ABC first reported it at approximately 9:30PM, with all of the major media outlets quickly following suit. It's official: Delaware Senator Joe Biden will be the vice presidential nominee for the Democratic ticket. The Obama campaign would probably have wished to control this message, and to many it was anti-climactic that the campaign was beaten to their own announcement, but sometimes you just can't underestimate the competitive and hungry nature of the modern mainstream media.
The two will be appearing together in about 30 mins. at the old state capitol in Springfield, Il for the first time and I think the majority of democrats will feel energized about the pick, and as an old tough Irish-catholic candidate, he's a demographic dream and could assuage some voters' concerns about Obama's lack of experience, one thing to think about though, is that Biden has been a United States Senator since Obama was 11 years old and I bet this point will be brought up more than once by the media.
Like I did with Romney a couple of days ago I'll list Joe Biden's pluses and minuses.

Pros

-- Old. White. Catholic.

-- Will be an excellent surrogate for the campaign, and is a good debater, whoever McCain picks will be hard pressed to try and match Biden on this front.

-- Experience, experience, experience. Chairman of both the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (he's been to Iraq 8 times) and the Senate Judiciary Committee. He has relationships with many foreign dignitaries and leaders.

-- Despite his experience and time in Washington, he's still seen by both the media and many of his colleagues as "part of Washington but not of it," which could help reinforce part of Obama's message.

-- The press loves him.

-- Seen by all as a "safe choice" and there won't be media speculation as to whether he was risky or not.

-- Has a good story to tell.

Cons

-- Has been described many times as "verbose" and has been called a "gaffe machine."

-- For a campaign that puts so much emphasis on stagecraft, Biden does nothing to help the visuals of the ticket and the two may look awkward together onstage due to their lopsided age difference.

-- May have a problem taking orders and playing the no. 2 spot. Loyalty hasn't been proven yet.

-- Has a lot of archival footage saying controversial things about Obama that will be relished by Republicans.

-- Voted for the resolution that started the Iraq War, which Obama himself has referred to as "the one test of judgment in a generation."

-- Has a long friendship with John McCain and lobbied John Kerry hard in 2004 to put McCain on that ticket, this point will also be relished by Republicans.

-- Won't do anything to help with Hillary Clinton supporters that still feel bitter and stung after the primary.

McCain campaign releases spanish language TV ads, conservative Republicans spontaneously combust

It's true

Now McCain has a pretty decent record amongst hispanic voters, and is really working to make them into a swing group this year. If he was able to make serious headway here than the Republicans would have a good shot at an upset, as currently Obama is polling over 60% amongst Hispanic groups in the most recent polls and has reached out hard to this group through Spanish-language ads and unprecedented voter registration campaigns.
So why shouldn't McCain release Spanish language ads? Is there something really heretical about trying to win and maybe try to establish a bloc of conservative Americans that just "happen" to be Hispanic that could really help down-ballot Republicans and perhaps create a new coalition amongst a group that is very traditionally a swing group, especially if they could ramp up a successful voter registration campaign of their own.
My opinion is that conservatives within the GOP need to ease up, do they really want Obama to continue to dominate in almost every facet of the ground game and new voter registration this election? Do they really want him to have full reign over the Supreme Court for the next 4 years and glide his legislation through a Democratic dominated congress anxious to do his bidding?
They can display umbrage and outrage, and continue watching their party shrink or they can let a man be a politician and do what it takes to win.

It's just so good. . .

Every single media outlet in the country is waiting for. . .a text message.

Watching the media flail and furrow their brows and speculate and pontificate and deliberate has got to be satisfying to, well anyone that likes watching the 8 headed hydra that is the media, say things like "well, you know, right now we just don't know anything."
Obama is getting pretty much 100% of the mainstream coverage right now with CNN and MSNBC posting round the clock live feeds outside of the homes of people that, well, they themselves have reported are among the "finalists" to be picked as his running mate.
Another stinger was that Robert Gibbs, the campaign's communication director said on Monday that the announcement could come as "soon as Wednesday," putting precious drops of blood in the shark tank that caused a frenzy few have ever seen. The fact that the Obama campaign has always planned to announce Friday night or Saturday was just the latest in the campaigns brilliant manipulation of the media that would make any Republican insane with envy.
The most ironic thing about the "veepstakes" I think, is that as soon as it's announced, there will be a collective "Oh, that's it?" From most pundits and it will be business as usual until the election.

Bayh is not the guy

Ok, if I could figure how to add images in html I would post the sticker but it looks like the Obama-Bayh stickers printed in Kansas turned out to be a hoax.

So now, in the past few days we've heard it's Biden, then the WSJ reported that it was Tim Kaine, then we thought it might be Bayh. This is madness!

Oh yeah, and to stir the pot the NYTimes speculated today that Obama's veep choice could be this little-known Texas congressman.

When Obama does finally make his announcement, it better be good. With all the frenzy and the hype and excitement surrounding his pick for veep, it better be like the Dahlai Lama or Michael Phelps or somebody reall REALLY amazing.

And by the way, THANK YOU Onion, for printing this today.

PS: How irked do you think John McCain feels today?

Barack Obama, please just tell us who your choice for veep is!

We're dying over here!

GOP sources close to the campaign say McCain has settled on Romney

According to this

Now I haven't blogged about the veepstakes all that much because there REALLY is so much speculation and media hype over this and that, that it's almost not worth mentioning, but one thing this does draw clear contrast on is that this kind of leak would never have happened in the Obama campaign.

Obama has pushed the narrative at every turn for the past two months when it has come to his choice of VP, running an airtight campaign with no leaks and forcing the media to pull it's hair out and go crazy over tea leaves the campaign has dangled in front of them like carrots.

This leak could be a ruse though from the McCain campaign, another trial balloon like last weeks Ridge affair, if so it would be a clever trick from the McCain campaign to see what people really think of Romney.
Hey why not, everyone else is, maybe I will do some speculation here:

Romney pro's:

-- One hell of a handsome man, he looks like he should be president.

-- Already a proven surrogate, can go toe to toe with anyone anytime.

-- Shores up McCain's disadvantages on economic issues and can hammer Obama on the economy with an air of expertise and authority that McCain lacks on this subject.

-- Gives McCain a real chance in Michigan (Ironically not the state he was governor of, but the state his father was the governor of.)

-- Already familiar with many Republican voters.

Romney con's:

-- Has been pro-choice before he was pro-life (as well as other known flip-flops that democrats will seek to destroy him on)

-- Does nothing to help McCain with evangelicals or suspicious conservatives.

-- Has high unfavorables with many Republican voters.

-- Doesn't garner enthusiasm.

-- A bit of a gaffer

-- They don't have good chemistry together.

The ups and downs of running a negative campaign

Remember May? It seems like so long ago doesn't it? Back then the Democratic Primary was on it's way to a photo finish with both candidates duking it out in states like North Carolina and Kentucky, but also giving far off exotic lands like Puerto Rico and Guam, their 15 minutes of fame. Hillary was still in kitchen sink mode with all the punditocracy talking about her "hard working. . .white Americans" gaffe, while the Obama campaign was milking it's mathematical inevitability in what amounted to the political equivelency of running out the clock. Democrats were still red in the face about Florida and Michigan, and John McCain gave speeches no one listened too and Republicans shook their fists at the heavens and said "Why God!?"
Ahh May, it seems like a time of political innocence compared to now. It really was, especially when you think that if anyone could've looked into the future they probably would've just died laughing at how wrong EVERYONE would be.
I remember watching all the news shows and reading my usual political blogs and one thing kept popping out at me in my obsessive grasping for every bit of political news I could.
It was two simple words: honorable campaign.
Both Obama and McCain claimed just 3 and a half months ago that this time it was going to be different. No swiftboating, no questions of patriotism or baseless character assaults, no distorting of positions with negative ads and smear campaigns. This time it was going to be about the facts! About hard questions and fair answers! About the day to day, bread and butter, kitchen table, red white and blue issues Joe and Jane American face every single day.
And you know a lot of people bought it.
And it actually started out that way, the candidates painfully went out of their way to praise the other, they talked tough, but it was about issues! It was objective, it was a conversation. Surrogates were fired or forced to resign for thinking it was a presidential campaign and doing their best to make their candidate look good while making the other look like like a freakish monster who frightens children.
And then one day they realized, "Oh Wait, this is a presidential campaign."
If you traveled back in time to that preciously innocent time in May and told Chuck Todd or Wolf Blitzer that John McCain would release ads mocking his opponent giving an inspiring speech to 200,000 Europeans and release ads with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, they would laugh in your face. "No, no, this time it'll be different," they would say.
People this is politics, it's going to get nasty. There will never, ever be an honorable campaign in this or any country's future.
You know why? Because negative ads work.
Michael Dukakis lost one of the best chances democrats have had at victory within the last 30 years because he was damn near portrayed as a criminal loving commie. Thomas Jefferson allowed his political party to release pamphlets saying that John Adams was a cross dressing transvestite.
This is the way things go. McCain has brought Obama's 10 point lead at the beginning of July down to barely 2 points right before his own party's convention, whether Obama's own negative attacks on his opponent will give him a bump as he goes in to what is his most important week as a presidential candidate, is left to be seen.
Both campaigns know these tactics are effective, and although Obama was clever by letting McCain start the battle first, this will become a full fledged war before anyone knows what hit them; and as much as the American people claim to despise the muckraking and back and forth of politics, they still seem to form their opinions on those same caricatures created by carefully crafted media wars.
If there is a downside to negative campaigning, though, it's that if you're not successful, you could end with a lot of 'splainin' to do. The pundits will hem and haw and will say you went to far, like the joker at a party that has people laughing for hours until he suddenly says one wrong thing and now faces blank stares and choruses of "not cool man."
The RNC sure had egg on their face earlier this year when in each of the special house races in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Illinois they ran brutal attack ads on the democratic candidates trying to tie them to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, claiming the candidates were out of touch, too "liberal" and dangerous for America. Hillary Clinton faced swarms of media and supporter backlash for her "kitchen sink" strategy against Obama late in the primaries and even though her campaign was urging her to go even more negative against Obama, it may have cost her dearly amongst people that genuinely were tired of politics as usual and were drawn to a message of hope and change.
I obviously will make no projections now as to what effect this new ramp up of negativity will have on either candidate, the political winds and opinions of the American people are just to hard to predict sometimes, and Obama has done a good job of framing McCain as just too negative (grumpy?) To be trusted to make good judgment. I can say one thing though, we sure won't see an end to it. From either side.

Apparently, John McCain Is A Baller...

The Obama campaign is on the attack after John McCain admitted during an interview with Politico that he wasn't sure how many homes he owned.

The Obama campaign clearly sees this as an opportunity to portray John McCain as out of touch with average americans. It will be interesting to see how this strategy pans out and whether voters respond to these attack ads. Some political analysts are saying this moment in the election is akin to George Bush Sr.'s fascination with the ole' grocery store scanner. Who knows whether this is a pivotal point in the election narrative or if the Obama campaign's attempt to paint McCain in a different light will fizzle as buzz surrounding both candidates VP choices grows in the next week.

The political horserace heats up with differing opinions

Kos says everyone needs to calm down and stop worrying

Meanwhile. . .

Robert Arena says we should be very worried

The opinion of this blogger is that the recent numbers are definitely troubling for Obama, but even though he's seen his numbers slip due to an onslaught by Republicans it could also be that McCain has caught on more to the average voter than the media will give him credit for.
I would like to see some polls after the two conventions and after Obama has been able to hit the road more over the next couple weeks, plus they'll both have VP's to do most of the attack work while the candidates themselves generally take the high road.
PLUS, more troubling for Obama I think would be This! Sirens are going off in Chicago as Obama falls behind in the electoral map for the first time since he became the nominee starting out at a potential of 322 electoral votes in June, down to now 264 based on most recent state polling.

Obamanomics

The NYTimes Magazine ran a great piece today on Obama's economic philosophy

Even with all the information out there, economic and tax policies and how they work (and who they effect)seem to elude many people (myself included). I thought that this piece offered great insight on how Obama has informed his own economic philosophy in a pretty straightforward way.

Today's polls 8/19

There continues to be bleak news for Obama across the board, and again, McCain HQ will be wiping it's brow and heaving sighs of relief as two polls released today show a a broad tightening of the race, doing nothing to alter the recent narrative that Obama needs to step it up. Although he still maintains a slim lead nationally, a new Quinnipiac poll released this morning shows Obama +5 and an LA Times/Bloomberg poll released this afternoon shows Obama +2. Both of these polling companies released polls last month that showed much more comfortable leads for Obama.
The more troubling news for Obama though is that his numbers in states his campaign has been fighting hard for such as Indiana, North Carolina and Florida as well as safe states such as Pennsylvania and Minnesota have crumbled into very nail-biting margins.
His campaign has been on the air with both positive and negative ads in Indiana and North Carolina for over a month and new polls released today show McCain at +6 in both states. (McCain's campaign has bought $0 worth of airtime in both states) this blog has stated that North Carolina may very well be a long shot for Obama this election, but Indiana has surprisingly been in the toss up category since polls released last month showed a very tight race and also following news of soaring democratic voter registration, with Obama tied or ahead in each of the polls released since the enthusiastic state participation in the Democratic primary contest there in May. It looks like, depsite Obama's wide reaching ad campaign and promise to alter the electoral map, putting new states in play for him may be a bigger gamble than his campaign thought and we may be looking at the exact same states in play as have been in the past two elections and a narrower electoral victory for Obama this November, should he be able to pull it off.
With leads in Ohio, Virginia, Michigan and Colorado drying up or hanging by a thread the Obama campaign may want to think about changing up it's strategy towards these states or it's broad message overall.
With Obama's VP pick imminent and the Democratic National Convention next week, the democrats will be doing all they can to steal the spotlight and turn around Obama's crumbling numbers.

VP picks, the media is wondering about Obama but I'm thinking about McCain

So, I know tongues are wagging right now over Obama's potentially announcing his VP choice as early as tomorrow. According to MSNBC this afternoon, Joe Biden says he's not the guy.

So since Obama's prospects are being well-covered by the media, I thought that I would give my prediction that I think John McCain will chose Meg Whitman as his VP pick. This first occurred to me when I was thinking about the way he spoke of her as one of the wisest people he knew at the Saddleback Church Forum last weekend. I think her credentials as a longtime CEO of Ebay would help alleviate voters' concerns over McCain's knowledge of the economy in the same way that others have predicted McCain should chose Mitt Romney for VP. And unlike Mitt Romney, I think Meg Whitman would have a better shot of pealing away some of the remaining jilted Hillary Clinton supporters who were crushed that they wouldn't be seeing a woman in the White House.

So there, that's my prediction. I guess we'll know for sure on August 29th.

Oh, and who knows whether Joe Lieberman will be McCain's VP pick but someone over at the Associated Press seems to think that Lieberman is a prick.

Who Knew Teddy Roosevelt Would Be Getting So Much Coverage During the 2008 Election?

In case you were wondering which former president you would most like to compare John McCain to, the NYTimes is out to tell you that it better not be Teddy Roosevelt. Timothy Egan first made his case against the comparison last week and today Bob Herbert followed up with his own piece on McCain versus Teddy.

Even if you don't have any lingering hang ups over the 1904 election, I recommend reading these 2 pieces, they are both an interesting read.

McCain to announce VP next Friday

On his birthday no doubt!! (Probably to downplay the punditocracy talking about his age for a whole weekend.)

And sometime this week, millions of cell phones will chatter simultaneously as Obama's VP pick becomes known to millions of giddy teenagers. (As well as the proprieters of this blog.)

The McCain campaign has been uncharacteristically airtight here, most speculation says that McCain has yet to make up his mind, while Obama made up his mind while in Hawaii.

McCain won't make up his mind until Obama makes his pick, and he'll play off of that.

A Socratic dialogue about the Obama campaign

Good stuff, from Ambinder's blog

New York Times bashes the "McCain doctrine"

The New York Times continues it's flimsy relationship with Mr. McCain with this piece charting his reactions to 9/11 right after it happened and using it as a standard to how a McCain administration would deal with foreign threats and the issues of national security.

Some highlights include him saying "This is war," immediately after he found out about the attacks and saying "Next stop, Baghdad," to a crowded deck of seaman aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theofore Roosevelt.

From the paper: "To his admirers, Mr. McCain’s tough response to Sept. 11 is at the heart of his appeal. They argue that he displayed the same decisiveness again last week in his swift calls to penalize Russia for its incursion into Georgia, in part by sending peacekeepers to police its border."

At the time, people were desperate to put a face on those villainous attacks and McCain's comments and attitude were very common and popular amongst millions of grieving and frustrated Americans, now I think that the rhetoric displayed in this article may be a little wincing to most readers and will remind them of a lot of things that George W. Bush said around the same time. With McCain trying to run as far away from President 25% as he can, it may be a little hard for him to try and frame the foreign policy debate on his own terms when articles like this are printed.
Obama, desperate to keep the focus on the ailing economy, where he is seen by most Americans as much stronger than McCain, has made very few references to the Georgian conflict and has continued -- as witnessed today when he stumped in New Mexico -- hammering home his themes on energy and economic recovery.
When articles like this surface, it may show that the McCain campaign is in danger of overplaying it's hand on foreign policy and national security and should be cautious of sounding too eager and hostile to engage other countries when America has grown weary of war and recession.

Who is John McCain? Frank Rich Comes Back From Vacation With A Vengeance

Frank Rich is back from a vacation break. In his Sunday column today he makes the point that even though McCain is often viewed as the tried and true candidate and a less risky choice for president, Americans still don't seem to know much about him. 

Other than McCain's war record and his time spent as a POW, I'd have to agree that McCain's biography seems to need some shading in. It's understandable that McCain's campaign might be eager to gloss over less flattering points in his history, such as the Keating Five scandal and his divorce from his first wife (which McCain mentioned without much elaboration as his greatest personal moral failure at the Saddleback Church Forum yesterday). But other than McCain's more obvious low points, why don't Americans know or want to know more about him?

On the one hand, McCain might be reluctant to make the extent of he and his wife's enormous wealth and lavish lifestyle better known to average americans. Like George W. before him, McCain seems to want to play the angle of being known as a "regular guy" even though he really isn't. Since regular people don't own six homes and a private plane, keeping his private life under wraps seems to be a good idea...

What I don't understand is why Americans aren't demanding to know more about what McCain has been up to in the last thirty years since he was released as a POW and joined the world of politics in the 1970's. Is the perception of McCain as a tried and true candidate really deserved? If McCain's biography and political career isn't actually familiar to Americans, then what is it about him that makes him seem that way? 

Rick Warren forum on faith

I think both did really well, both seemed relaxed and comfortable, since Obama has made no secret of his faith and his outreach to the evangelical community I think the burden of proof was on McCain last night, not neccesarily at the church he was at, (a megachurch in the heart of the Republican bastion of Orange County, CA) but moreso for the worldwide stage. He's been reluctant to engage when it comes to his faith and I think a lot of conservative Republicans were holding their breath, hoping he would come across as knowledgeable in a forum where the exact conservatives who are doubting him right now need to be reassured he's fully on their side.
While Obama seemed more fluent in direct matters of faith, McCain's anecdotal references and moving stories seemed to be the climax of the night, and may have overshadowed Obama's nuance and care not to offend Warren ("Pastor Rick" as he called him.)
McCain's scripted response to each of the questions straight from Republican talking points may have brought a smile to his campaign and to his conservative base, but Obama's personal honesty and authenticity may play better amongst swing voters.
What may come back to haunt the candidates later is both Obama's waffling on abortion trying to play both to the left and to the center, and also completely dodging Warren's questions about "when does life begin?" Claiming it was "above his pay grade," conservative groups and the GOP will surely be back with this one later.
However McCain's embarrassing answer to "define rich" as someone who makes "$5 million" and then his backing away from that comment and then virtual non-response by vaguely talking about not raising taxes, will be used by democrats a lot this fall and he can be assured that will come back to haunt him.
Most pundits either give the night to McCain or call it a tie, I would agree that both candidates had their moments but I wouldn't call it an outright McCain victory. Obama has a little more than a month until the first presidential debates, and he better bring something stellar to the table because McCain is waiting.

Just the facts ma'am!

Both candidates have now released ads recently that attack eachother's record and omit glaring facts. In many of McCain's new ads he takes the standard Republican tone, trying to scare Americans into thinking that Obama will tax them all to hell.
Obama's ads recently, where he blames McCain for the possible loss of 8000 jobs in Wilmington, Ohio, while defending himself from the "celebrity" line the Republicans have been driving into the ground, are also a little misleading, and is maybe only half right.
Obama's tax plan has been proven that it will not raise taxes on any middle class families, and 90% of American families will actually see their taxes cut, Obama also wants a second stimulus package to go out giving families a $1000 "energy rebate" to cope with rising oil and gas prices. McCain has also attacked him saying that millions of small business owners will see their taxes raised, this has also been proven false, many of their taxes will stay the same.
Obama on the other hand, may have over-reached on the DHL ads he released recently in Ohio. It's true that DHL, a German company, and according to factcheck.org: ". . .announced a deal that could result in over 8000 jobs lost in Ohio and McCain did in fact oppose an amendment that would have kept DHL from buying Wilmington-based Airborne Express. McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, was also a DHL lobbyist charged with easing the merger through the senate."
But McCain hardly "turned his back on Ohio workers" as the Obama supporting AFL-CIO charges. Again according to factcheck.org: "McCain said he opposed a version of the amendment because it was a special project inserted into an unrelated bill, not to help DHL. And the teamsters union praised the merger at the time, saying that it would lead to more jobs, and at first more jobs indeed followed."
McCain and Obama, who have both seen baseless smears and lies told about them by their past opponents, seem to have forgotten this, and while both of them have tried to set up rapid response teams within their campaign to fight these lies, seem to still be spending the majority of their time, and at least the majority of their airtime, spreading false information about one another.

Barack Obama is not John Kerry, John McCain is not Bob Dole

Pundits and wags have a tendency to compare today's political rising stars, as well as it's terrible trainwrecks, to similar politicians from yesteryear, as is common in all elements of media, however it's nearly impossible to get through a political season without the same similarities and coincidences thrown around like tired cliches.
For the democrats, it's always Kennedy and Clinton if you're persuasive and charismatic, Carter and Mondale if you're seen as weak, and Dukakis and Kennedy if you're lefty and liberal. The same applies to Republicans, every modern conservative strives to be the next Reagan, and shamelessly tries to avoid comparisons to Bob Dole or Newt Gingrich or even to a certain extent, Gerald Ford.
This election is obvioiusly no different.
Since 2004 was a mere four years ago and is the election most freshly in the minds of the American people, democrats view that election almost on par with genocide and chants of "Never Again!" are shouted from rooftops and drum circles alike. The democrats thought they had a real winner in John Kerry, he was experienced, he had the initials JFK, and he nailed every generic Democratic talking point. He wrapped up the nomination early and was on his way to raise buckets of money for him and his party. Not to mention he was a bonafied war hero, and a former prosecutor that was a champion of the little guy. But Kerry was also a waffler, he voted for the Iraq war and ran on a platform opposing it and couldn't decide whether he wanted to run as a populist hero or a laid back catholic everyman who loved to hunt, but also loved windsurfing and snowboarding. He was tarred and feathered on all fronts by a merciless Republican attack machine and failed to win against someone who now has the most dismal approval rating in recorded history and is already seen as more of a mascot than a statesman.
Barack Obama is not John Kerry, this was apparent as soon as he locked up the nomination and went toe to toe with McCain and the Republicans on almost every issue, not giving any ground, even on issues that aren't neccessarily his strengths, and ensuring that his campaign coupled with his legions of hard nosed volunteers worked tirelessly to discount every negative word and smear that could possibly be uttered against him.
Granted Obama has made a mistake by making the election more about him and his message and less about the past 8 years and the legacy of President 25%, but although his message is soft and inspiring, he has never shown a hesitancy to trade punches, or use the occasional folding chair when the refs aren't looking, and that right there should give Democrats at least a modicum of hope that this nominee won't be tarred and feathered and drug out on a rail.
Obama is in the precarious position of facing both a headwind and a tailwind at the same time, on the one hand he's running in a year when the American people are ready to vote overwhelmingly for a Generic Democrat, but at the same time he faces huge suspicion both on "cultural issues," as his campaign calls them, and one of the most underground and ugly smearfests anyone has ever seen.
If it'd been Kerry he would've been buried long ago.
John McCain meanwhile is also another story, as the standard bearer leading his bruised and tattered Republican Army in what seems like a limp, if not a slow crawl to the white house. Republicans face the prospect of a very dismal November, and with recent reports that a majority of congressional Republicans in competitive races this year are avoiding their party's National Convention like an ebola patient, it just goes to show the tough hill Mr. McCain has to climb.
But wait! John McCain will not go gently into that good night dammit! The average polls show him between 3-7 points behind Obama and running very competitive in the very states he must win in order to sleep nightly in the Lincoln Bedroom.
When Bob Dole ran as an old fashioned conservative from the Kansas heartland his campaign seemed to be doomed from the start, Bill Clinton was popular, the economy was booming and people were comfortable. Falling off of stages and speaking in the third person didn't do anything to get his poll numbers soaring either, and so it went, and that November Dole did no better than GHW Bush, and Republicans had to suffer 4 more years of Slick Willie.
McCain however is no Bob Dole, although he himself can be incredibly awkward and his campaign has been fumbling about since the very start, failing to stick to a message for more than five minutes and having lot's of embarrassing ties to lobbyists in a year when people are tired of Washington as usual.
Yet voters seem to find him amiable and charming and although the Republican base hasn't flocked to his banner with warcry's and shouts, his campaign and Republicans in general have made the average Republican so scared of Obama they're left with no other choice.
His off the cuffness can give his handlers ulcers, but people seem to find it somewhat refreshing and tend to view him as lot more of a nice guy and an old kidder than a furious warmonger.
The liberal left meanwhile has been pretty good at trying to tie McCain to President Bush, and this may yet be his downfall but he's still been able to keep what should be a landslide against him fairly competitive and too that he deserves some credit.

Obama Nation

The media buzz is getting louder over Jerome Corsi's anti-Obama book, Obama Nation. The same author who skewered John Kerry with Unfit For Command in 2004 is back with a vengeance, and this time his painting Barack Obama as a radical liberal with a secret islamic agenda. In response, Obama's campaign has posted a report entitled Unfit For Publication on the candidate's official website to discredit the author and his book. 

The timing on this book was impeccable. In the past two weeks election coverage has slowed down while the media turns their focus to the olympic games. Surely Corsi's sensational book will drive news coverage of Obama in the next few weeks as the book picks up more momentum.

Even if Corsi's book does drive the upcoming news cycle, my feeling is that he won't get as far making outrageous accusations about Obama the way he did with John Kerry -- his credibility took a major hit today when  the NYTimes published an article linking the author to statements he made in support of 9/11 conspiracy theories. 

The Democratic Parties continuing obsession with white southerners

From Andrew Jackson to James K Polk to Bill Clinton to John Edwards, the Democratic Party just can't seem to get over it's obsession with popular southern politicians.
Maybe it is because the democratic party originated from -- and up until the 60's was largely constrained too -- the south. Or maybe being from the south or at least somehow affiliated with anything southern, eliminates any sort of "elitist" label that can be thrown at them by political opponents.
Now statitstics don't lie, democrats have won 5 of the last 14 Presidential elections and Americans have only seen one incumbent Democratic president in 60 years, and this may go to show, that except on the local level (Democrats have in recent historical memory generally have held slim majorities in Congress) there's something about a national Democrat that the average American finds suspicious or just downright untrustworthy. Is it that they're just easy targets for a well oiled and ruthless Republican attack machine? Or is it that their nominating process continually spews forth weak candidates? Despite being a country that conventional wisdom has dubbed "center-right," roughly 38% of the country describes themselves as "Democrat" and another 15 % describe themselves as "left leaning independent." now simple math tells you right there that just a little bit more than the majority of the country describes themselves in one way or another as personally more affiliated with the party of the left. Now there's plenty of ways those numbers can be sliced and diced, but simply put, Democrats just can't seal the deal.
With the exception of the Johnson landslide in 1964, which started the "liberal wave" that lead to -- and was immediately fizzled out by: medicare, civil rights legislation and social security, the American consciousness has only allowed itself to vote for a democrat only when the Republican brand has completely failed (Carter) or a third party siphons 19% of the popular vote (Clinton.)
All 3 of the Democratic Presidents that have held office since Kennedy have been from the south, and Kennedy himself, being from the liberal bastion of Massachussetts, chose Johnson as a way to ensure that he could "lock up the south."Fellow Massachussetts men Michael Dukakis and John Kerry, perhaps following in Mr. Kennedy's footsteps, each also chose popular southern politicians as their running mates, Senator Lloyd Bentson from Texas and Senator John Edwards from North Carolina respectively. Dukakis himself has admitted that one of the only things he got "right" during his failed 1988 campaign was his choice in running mate. Kerry must've thought that Edwards' folksy southern charm and populist speaking style would perhaps offset that national suspicion America seems to have with mainstream democratic presidential candidates and perhaps help him demographically in places he himself as a candidate was struggling.
Let's look at the current race, Senator Barack Obama, the first major party candidate nominated from Illinois since Lincoln faces that same question and that same mainstream American suspicion. On the other hand, President Bush has driven his own parties brand into the ground, and this leaves fertile room for Mr. Obama, who has seen a laundry list of southern politicians listed as his potential running mates, the mostly prominent on that list being current Virginia governor Tim Kaine and former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. If Obama breaks convention and chooses a running mate not from the south and wins, it would be the first time since 1940 that the nation chose a Democratic ticket not featuring at least one southern politician.
Also currently, it was just announced that former Virginia Governor Mark Warner will be giving the keynote address at this years Democratic National Convention. With John Edwards in disgrace over his extra-marital affair, the convention lacked a southern face, and who better to give it that face thenn the popular ex-governor and current senate candidate Mark Warner. If Warner follows what has seemed to be the typical path, he could be quite a formidable candidate for the presidency himself in maybe 4 - 8 years, Republicans would probably tremble at the idea of sending someone up agains yet another popular white democratic southern governor.
So what is the Democratic Party's obsession with all things Southern? Is it their desperate need to gain acceptance amongst the beer-swilling Nascar crowd? Their secret love of pork products? Or is it that they feel they are so out of step with mainstream America that they have to put that southern face on everything in a final plea to the American public that they really are the party of the common man.
Personally I don't think any amount of analysis can offer a solution, but until then, it's fun to think about.

McCain Can't Let Go of Cold War Sentiments

Today John McCain made the case to a Michigan crowd that the current conflict between Georgia and Russia is a great example of why the US needs a president with a steady hand on the tiller and extensive foreign policy experience. While I wouldn't argue that possessing a keen understanding of international affairs should be an important part of any presidential candidate's resume, Politico.com did an excellent job of pointing out that many decades in Washington isn't always a good thing.

John McCain's inability to look past a Cold War attitude towards Russia only highlights his inability to look toward the future. Although George Bush received a lot of criticism for his approach to Russia during his time in office, I would have to say that with the United States' existing problems in the Middle East, the last thing America needs is another enemy who is geographically close to the enemies we already have...

Today's polls; Virginia, Florida and North Carolina

It looks like the race has pretty much stabilized, with no real surprises or shocking polls really materializing. The national polls have stabilized over the past month and it looks like it's going to be some good ol' fashioned campaign trench warfare until October.
Two SurveyUSA polls have come out over the past few days showing pretty predictable results and probably causing some sighs of relief over at McCain HQ.
The first is a Virginia poll showing McCain +1 in Virginia, and although Obama has shown as high as +7 in the Old Dominion, most mainstream polling shows a back and forth seesaw with neither campaign really giving much ground and most political insiders predicting a 50% chance for either campaign here. I predict that Virginia will be the Ohio of 2004 and the Florida of 2000, the media loves a horserace, and the possibility of a populous southern state going blue for the first time in 44 years will keep pundit tongues a wagging until the last polls close and no doubt John King's big map will be working overtime pouring through each of Virginia's counties on November 4th.
The second poll shows North Carolina +4 for McCain, which is pretty consistent with all of the other state polling and offers no real cheek slappers. Obama will likely invest a lot of time into the state, and has already opened up several field offices and has started a massive voter registration effort, especially amongst his favorable demographics. Now I don't think, even with an insurmountable get out the vote effort that Obama will get within 2-3 points in North Carolina, unless something tragic happens to McCain or his campaign, but Obama's efforts there may force Republicans to devote time and resources into a state that should be a shoe in.
Florida is a similar story, Hillary Clinton remains extremely popular there and although the mostly media driven narrative that the democratic party is divided has been proven false in most states favorable to Obama, and also amongst most circles within the democratic party itself, this state may actually be a state that the democrats could've picked up, should Clinton have won the nomination.
Recent reports have shown that Obama has aired thousands of ads across Florida with McCain airing zero, but this is one state that McCain has actually invested a decent ground game and has opened up dozens of field offices. Time will tell here, but I think it's safe to say that Florida's "swing state" status will once again be reliably red. Obama also out-aired Clinton almost 3-1 throughout the primaries and exit polls showed they had little effect.
Although the electoral map is still looking favorable for Obama, it's unlikely to be a Bill Clinton level landslide, with Obama probably winning between 290 - 322 electoral votes.
It's interesting to think though, Bush won each election by only one state, leaving democrats forever embittered, so even if Obama wins by more than one state, at least Republicans may feel he earned it.

Pimpin' Ain't Easy When Your Wife Has Cancer

I was so disappointed to read that John Edwards admitted to ABC news that he cheated on his wife with a novice filmmaker. The interview airs tonight on Nightline. A report by the National Enquirer also claimed that Edwards fathered a child with the woman, but he still maintains that the father of the baby was a different married staffer from his presidential campaign. I think his prospects for VP, attorney general, and poverty czar are now pretty much over...

Is Obama Too Wimpy In His Approach To McCain?

Today New York Senator and Democratic Senate Campaign Committee chair Chuck Schumer made a statement urging Barack Obama not to be afraid of getting bruised in a vamped up effort to personally attack John McCain. A report on Politico.com quotes Schumer as saying the following:

"I would not be afraid to attack back," said Schumer, who chairs the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, in an interview with Politico. "When they say, 'He's not one of us,' you don't say, 'Here's our plan on health care,"' he said.

"I thought the Britney Spears commercial was powerful," Schumer said, referring to McCain's television ad casting Obama as a vapid "celebrity."

After Hillary Clinton made her comeback during the democratic primary by clobbering Obama on character issues, I tend to agree with Schumer. I think the Obama campaign's attitude of being "above the fray" is exactly what got John Kerry into trouble in 2004. Interestingly enough, it seems like at the beginning of the general election campaign Obama's campaign over-reacted and immediately came out with statements condemning McCain right and left for every perceived criticism. 

So I wonder why the Obama campaign isn't hitting McCain harder on his character? For one,I think there is some risk involved with attacking McCain's character and it could backfire in Obama's face. McCain has long portrayed himself as an established American hero and any sort of negative portrayal of McCain's military record could add fuel to the idea that Obama himself is unpatriotic. 

So where could Obama attack McCain's character? It's been said elsewhere before, but I think Obama could easily attack McCain for not being the political maverick he purports himself to be.  There are other areas Obama could go after McCain as well, if was only willing to take the gloves off.

The DNC platform for the convention

Here it is
We'll post the RNC platform when we have it.
Here's some notes:
-- John Kerry's 2004 platform used the buzzword "strong" vs. Obama's 2008 "renewing." ("Strong economy" vs "Renewing the American dream")
-- Just that right there shows you that this is a change election and people are a lot more comfortable with subtle platitudes then they may have been 4 years ago.
-- Some moderate or conservative Democrats may balk at the strong support for roe v. wade that's contained in this document. Obama has been an unabashed supporter of a woman's right to choose probably more so than any other Democratic nominee in at least 20 years. Although this may hurt him on the right, it's a position he has refused to compromise on and may endear him to many fringe women's groups that supported Hillary and may not have otherwise supported him.
-- Obama has tough words for absent fathers, but anyone familiar with his stump speech or any of the recent confrontations he's had with the black community may be familiar with this harsh rhetoric.
-- The platform flatly states "We reject illegal wire-tapping of American citizens." Now this statement may be right along the lines of "We the Democratic party hereby reject the illegal murder of cute puppies," but seeing as how the Democratic-majority congress failed to block, or even sponsor a full-throated attack on FISA last month, may mean that this issue may be coming back if Obama is elected, and they were just waiting for a larger majority.
-- Most everything else seems standard Democratic party boilerplate, (making sure they don't appear soft on crime or national security) I think it would be interesting if there is some upcoming analysis that shows if/when the party deviates either towards the left or towards the right based on Kerry's 2004 party platform. My guess is that Obama, although perceived by many conservatives as a staunch liberal, has in the past and will continue to welcome a lot of gravitation towards the right. I believe he is even comfortable with such perceptions, more so than any nominee since Clinton, whose "New Democrats" platform in 1992 was unashamedly center-left.

Obama and the Clintons cont. (cont.)

Last night I asked the question "What does Hillary Clinton want?" I guess I wasn't the only one wondering, today Katharine Q. Seeyle from the New York Times TheCaucus Blog asks the same question.

Charles Gibson (cont)

I tend to agree with Jason that Charles Gibson may have gotten shut out of the debates because of the perception that Gibson and George Stephanopolis ganged up on Obama during the democratic debate. It's been cited elsewhere that at times Obama's campaign has had an antagonistic relationship with the media which has led to the perception the campaign itself is arrogant. Who knows, just as their suddenly wasn't enough room on the plane for a journalist from the New Yorker after the magazine published a controversial cover in July, maybe the Obama campaign said they wouldn't participate in another debate moderated by Gibson.

Take that Charlie Gibson!

The moderators for the fall Presidential debates have been listed, and it looks like ABC didn't make the cut this year.
Going back to 1960 when the first televised presidential debates were held, ABC has moderated more debates than any other major network, seconded only to PBS.
Now it seems that the lineup this year is very visibly close to 2004's debate setup, with Jim Lehrer (PBS), Tom Brokaw (NBC), Bob Schieffer (CBS) and Gwen Ifill (PBS) each taking the reigns this year as moderator in that order. (Gwen Ifill will be moderating the VP debate.)
This mirror's 2004 but for one difference, NBC veteran anchor Tom Brokaw seems to have replaced Charlie Gibson, who moderated the second Presidential Debate in 2004.
Now I wouldn't read too far into this, I'm not exactly sure on the exact details on how these things are negotiated, or how far in advance they are planned, but I found it interesting that Tom Brokaw has not moderated one single debate. You would think a heavyweight such as Brokaw, a household name by any standards, would have had his chance in the past, but interestingly enough NBC has only hosted one other debate in the history of televised debates and that was back in 1960.
Perhaps it is Tom Brokaw's expanded role as political interrogator extraordinaire ala his new position as temporary host for "Meet The Press," replacing the legendary Tim Rusert, or maybe NBC is trying to play up it's news and politics credentials, both with hosting the Olympics and expanding their political coverage to be on par with the other networks, as seen this winter/spring during the grueling primary.
Or you know, it could be that people watched Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopolous' wincing performance in Philadelphia back in April and someone up the chain decided: "Gibson's out! Brokaw's in!"

Obama and the Clintons (cont.)

I agree with Laura, but I also think mostly the Clinton's are bitter over Bill and Hillary Clinton's collective legacy and how they feel about how they were perceived by the media during the primaries.
Bill Clinton is an ex-president, one of only 4 still alive, someone who should be treated with the honor and dignity and trappings befitting the highest office in the land. Someone noted for his hyper-sensitivity as well as his political savvy. Despite his polarizing stint as a cheerleader for his wife, the media portrayed Clinton as an angry, bitter surrogate, desperate to get his word in and maintain his legacy as well as a modicum of control within the campaign, and nearly humiliated him for "stooping so low as" to go out to Bumpkinville, America four or five times a day to try and russle up the Wal-Mart vote for his wife.
Hillary's campaign was very nearly called everything but a disgrace by the end of the primary and finger after finger from the media pointed out the many reasons she herself as a candidate and her campaign failed to clinch the nomination despite assembling a who's-who troupe of some of the biggest and brightest names in politics and being praised as the "presumptive Democratic nominee" months before the first contests started.
There were countless "why she failed" articles penned by the media, even before the primary was over. And having embarrassing spotlights on all of the "Clinton family drama" highlighting their headline-making campaign strife was probably extremely hard for the anointed royalty of Democratic politics to deal with; coupled with watching their collective legacies burn to the ground as the public -- as well as the elected representatives of the American left -- embraced their young new champion I imagine would leave anyone beet-red with supplanted rage.
Everything seemed so calculated and imminent for Hillary and yet it didn't happen.
The Obama campaign, of course, playing smart politics, did nothing to stop the media's joyride into Clinton RIP-land and probably for that I don't see them becoming bff's anytime soon no matter how many rally's in Unity, America are held.
The Obama campaign's waffling on helping to retire Clinton's debt while Obama himself still has to spend and raise millions to battle a crack juggernaut of a Republican attack machine probably has both sides pointing fingers as to who deserves those rich donors' money more than the other.
And those poor wealthy donors, bless their hearts, are probably getting tired of writing so many damn checks.

Posted by Jason

Obama and the Clintons

Jason, thanks for sending today's Time article about Obama's continuously strained relationship with the Bill and Hillary Clinton. I am starting to doubt that Obama and the Clintons will ever patch things up. Like Time mentions, it seems like the Clintons are still sour grapes over Obama's perceived lack of commitment to help Hillary pay off her campaign debts. At this point though it still seems unclear what Hillary Clinton really wants from Obama. It looks like she's out for VP. What do you think she wants? We've talked before that maybe she could be in his cabinet as some sort of healthcare czar but do you think that's really it?

Today's polls 8/6

National:

Besides the Time poll released earlier today, there's also a new CBS opinion poll showing Obama at 45 and McCain at 39, another 6 percent lead for Obama which matches another AP/Ipsos poll take yesterday and is only 1 point ahead of the Time poll which nets Obama 5 points ahead.
Neither of these polls stray too much from the conventional wisdom and it seems we're entering a fairly stable phase in the race. The Gallup and Rasmussen daily polls show Obama at +2 and +1 respectively keeping the polling average right around +3 percent Obama, a place where it's stayed for about two weeks, following Obama's overseas trip and the withering Republican attacks. Since the polling average has come down for Obama despite media criticism of the tone the race has now taken, look for the Republicans to continue attacking and not let up until election day.
But as I said earlier, as long as Obama stays between 3 - 7 percent consistently, just like he has since he snagged the nomination in June and despite the attacks and negative campaign done by the Republican, he should be okay come November.
There also seems to indicate that some of the general public has been frowning on McCain's attack ads, which seem to be prepetuating the "Republican Attack Machine" meme that Obama cited as he turned down public financing and that section of the public may just be what's keeping his numbers up, especially with the information also gleaned from these polls that there are still chunks of voters out there that still say that they don't know enough about Obama and want to know more and may have misgivings about his ability to lead and his relative inexperience.
This would go to show that voters prefer inexperience and doubt over sharp attack ads and negative tactics.
Republicans may want to keep that in mind.

State polls:

There's only three state polls released today A PPP poll shows Florida +3 McCain and a Rasmussen poll released shows New Jersey + 10, a new Elway poll shows Washington state +12 for Obama.
Now first, I don't think Florida will go to Obama this year, I know there have a been a couple polls recently that showed good news for the Obama camp, but demographics might be against Obama here and unless there's a major shift in the national numbers and unprecedented get out the vote efforts by democrats this year, I think it's safe to say Florida will be reliably red.
It will definitely be close, but I don't see any recounts happening this year.
New Jersey and Washington don't show any real surprises, and these two states will follow what seems to be their recent voting history and the battleground states this election continue to be Ohio, Virginia, Michigan and Colorado. Those are the states to keep your eye on this election. Both candidates are really looking to seal the deal there, and come October there will be war over those states.
Even if Obama loses Virginia and Ohio, but manages to win Michigan and Colorado and keep all of the other states he's safe in, plus New Mexico and Iowa, he will squeak by to victory.
Look for McCain to spend a lot of time in Michigan over the next couple months.

Posted by Jason

Tuesday August, 06 Two new ads, new national poll, veepstakes buzz

There's a lot going on today, both within the "veepstakes" and also with the ongoing energy debate.
Both candidates have released new ads within the past 24 hours, both targeting the same battleground states that have seen a showering of ad-money in the past two months.
Obama still out-organizes McCain in virtually every state by almost embarrassing margins, but any edge Obama has in ground game has at least been matched by the McCain campaign holding it's own in television dollars, hitting early and often with sharp negative ads criticising Obama's worldwide "celebrity" and his energy policy. Continuing to use the "Obama! Obama!" chants and basically saying he has no energy plan to help the average American, while unlike his previous negative ads, the last half focuses on McCain's plan with lot's of positive things to say about himself, it could mean that, unlike last week's ads, he's maybe not trying to make the election ALL about the presumptive Democratic nominee
Here's McCain's new ad:



Obama also has his own ad, questioning McCain's "maverick" credentials and using McCain's own words to tie him to President Bush, oil company profits, and the slumping economy. This ad coincides with the DNC beginning it's "McCain-Exxon 08" campaign, creating a new line of campaign merchandise emblazoned with "McCain-Exxon '08" and with fake checks written to McCain from Exxon in the amount of millions of dollars..
Here's the Obama ad:



Here's a link to an example of the new "Exxon John" blog on the DNC website, which I believe over the next few days they're going to try and get as much hype as the RNC's smart "tire gauge" props that sold like hotcakes amongst conservatives and were mailed to journalists across the country.

http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/08/exxonmccain.php

Also there's a new TIME Magazine post that shows Obama 46, McCain 41.
There's been a lot of speculation about why Obama can't seem to "break" the 50 mark in a year that should be a walk for democrats, but no matter what speculation there is on margins in these polls and how Obama plays against "generic" democratic candidates, Obama has consistently polled within 3 - 7 percent ahead of McCain for the past two months and as long as he at least maintains this lead, then November 4th will be a good day for him.

The Evan Bayh veepstakes buzz is reaching a fevered pitch as Obama hit up the Hoosier state today giving a scathing review of John McCain's energy plan, Evan Bayh is no stranger to the VP buzz and played it like a pro as he and Obama preshed the flesh at a campaign stop in a diner in Elkhart, IN, playing coy for the press but being tight lipped and somber for the sake of the campaign.
Laura likes Kathleen Sebelius and I do too, but Bayh seems to be a master, and although his surrogate skills haven't been matched by the likes of John Kerry and Joe Biden, I can see Bayh turning into a media darling and frustrating the McCain campaign even more than it already is.
Take that Tim Kaine!