Today's polls 8/6

National:

Besides the Time poll released earlier today, there's also a new CBS opinion poll showing Obama at 45 and McCain at 39, another 6 percent lead for Obama which matches another AP/Ipsos poll take yesterday and is only 1 point ahead of the Time poll which nets Obama 5 points ahead.
Neither of these polls stray too much from the conventional wisdom and it seems we're entering a fairly stable phase in the race. The Gallup and Rasmussen daily polls show Obama at +2 and +1 respectively keeping the polling average right around +3 percent Obama, a place where it's stayed for about two weeks, following Obama's overseas trip and the withering Republican attacks. Since the polling average has come down for Obama despite media criticism of the tone the race has now taken, look for the Republicans to continue attacking and not let up until election day.
But as I said earlier, as long as Obama stays between 3 - 7 percent consistently, just like he has since he snagged the nomination in June and despite the attacks and negative campaign done by the Republican, he should be okay come November.
There also seems to indicate that some of the general public has been frowning on McCain's attack ads, which seem to be prepetuating the "Republican Attack Machine" meme that Obama cited as he turned down public financing and that section of the public may just be what's keeping his numbers up, especially with the information also gleaned from these polls that there are still chunks of voters out there that still say that they don't know enough about Obama and want to know more and may have misgivings about his ability to lead and his relative inexperience.
This would go to show that voters prefer inexperience and doubt over sharp attack ads and negative tactics.
Republicans may want to keep that in mind.

State polls:

There's only three state polls released today A PPP poll shows Florida +3 McCain and a Rasmussen poll released shows New Jersey + 10, a new Elway poll shows Washington state +12 for Obama.
Now first, I don't think Florida will go to Obama this year, I know there have a been a couple polls recently that showed good news for the Obama camp, but demographics might be against Obama here and unless there's a major shift in the national numbers and unprecedented get out the vote efforts by democrats this year, I think it's safe to say Florida will be reliably red.
It will definitely be close, but I don't see any recounts happening this year.
New Jersey and Washington don't show any real surprises, and these two states will follow what seems to be their recent voting history and the battleground states this election continue to be Ohio, Virginia, Michigan and Colorado. Those are the states to keep your eye on this election. Both candidates are really looking to seal the deal there, and come October there will be war over those states.
Even if Obama loses Virginia and Ohio, but manages to win Michigan and Colorado and keep all of the other states he's safe in, plus New Mexico and Iowa, he will squeak by to victory.
Look for McCain to spend a lot of time in Michigan over the next couple months.

Posted by Jason