Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Today's polls; Virginia, Florida and North Carolina

It looks like the race has pretty much stabilized, with no real surprises or shocking polls really materializing. The national polls have stabilized over the past month and it looks like it's going to be some good ol' fashioned campaign trench warfare until October.
Two SurveyUSA polls have come out over the past few days showing pretty predictable results and probably causing some sighs of relief over at McCain HQ.
The first is a Virginia poll showing McCain +1 in Virginia, and although Obama has shown as high as +7 in the Old Dominion, most mainstream polling shows a back and forth seesaw with neither campaign really giving much ground and most political insiders predicting a 50% chance for either campaign here. I predict that Virginia will be the Ohio of 2004 and the Florida of 2000, the media loves a horserace, and the possibility of a populous southern state going blue for the first time in 44 years will keep pundit tongues a wagging until the last polls close and no doubt John King's big map will be working overtime pouring through each of Virginia's counties on November 4th.
The second poll shows North Carolina +4 for McCain, which is pretty consistent with all of the other state polling and offers no real cheek slappers. Obama will likely invest a lot of time into the state, and has already opened up several field offices and has started a massive voter registration effort, especially amongst his favorable demographics. Now I don't think, even with an insurmountable get out the vote effort that Obama will get within 2-3 points in North Carolina, unless something tragic happens to McCain or his campaign, but Obama's efforts there may force Republicans to devote time and resources into a state that should be a shoe in.
Florida is a similar story, Hillary Clinton remains extremely popular there and although the mostly media driven narrative that the democratic party is divided has been proven false in most states favorable to Obama, and also amongst most circles within the democratic party itself, this state may actually be a state that the democrats could've picked up, should Clinton have won the nomination.
Recent reports have shown that Obama has aired thousands of ads across Florida with McCain airing zero, but this is one state that McCain has actually invested a decent ground game and has opened up dozens of field offices. Time will tell here, but I think it's safe to say that Florida's "swing state" status will once again be reliably red. Obama also out-aired Clinton almost 3-1 throughout the primaries and exit polls showed they had little effect.
Although the electoral map is still looking favorable for Obama, it's unlikely to be a Bill Clinton level landslide, with Obama probably winning between 290 - 322 electoral votes.
It's interesting to think though, Bush won each election by only one state, leaving democrats forever embittered, so even if Obama wins by more than one state, at least Republicans may feel he earned it.

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