Sunday, September 7, 2008

McCain's convention (Palin) bounce

There has been very scant polling lately, I imagine there will be a flood of new polling next week that will largely drive the media narrative and I think both campaign's are gritting their teeth and praying those numbers will be good. If it starts looking bad for Obama, like some of last month's numbers, democratic leaders will start to worry and will release statements showing he's not doing this or that and the media will then begin reporting that there is "disunity" within the party and it would look bad for his carefully crafted campaign message.
Although McCain is +3 in the newest gallup daily tracking number (Rasmussen tied), reflecting a slight bounce out of his parties convention -- although probably not as big of a boost as his campaign would've liked -- whether he'll maintain that lead is a little up in the air at this point, especially since their hasn't been any recent state polling to look at. If the numbers stay where they are, then democrats are in trouble. Obama has to continue to hammer at McCain, and get back on the offensive and control the narrative. As we've seen all throughout the summer and the primary season, the Obama campaign doesn't play the best defense.
I'll probably do a much more thorough polling analysis later this week, when fresher numbers are in and we can compare state polling with national polling and start seeing where this race will really be at over the next couple months.

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