Both McCain and Obama have tried to play the "reach across the aisle" card heavily this election, especially earlier on in the summer, before the economic crisis hardened partisan lines and both sides dug in, ready to unleash the final bombardments as the election nears it's conclusion. (Normally congress would be in recess right now as many members of the house and senate are up for reelection, and the ones that are not are out campaigning and raising money for the ones who are.)
Unfortunately for everyone, the financial "bailout" or "rescue," or whatever you want to call it has put a huge dent in anyone's plans to hit the stump this week for their party, and this is partly the reason why there's so much tension on the hill this week.
Very early in his campaign, Obama had said that he wanted to "put an end to the partisan divide" of the '90's and present (Receiving outright mockery from the Clinton campaign as a result.) He ran as a fresh faced idealist and outsider, ready to unlock congress and get everyone together at one big table to work out plans and ideas that worked for everyone, his mantra last year was that the best ideas would be put forth, not just the most liberal or conservative (remember the Obamacans?). Nowadays he seems to be humming a different tune. take for instance an interview today he did with John Berman of ABC. When Berman tells Obama he's a "persuasive guy" and asks him if he could've done more to help yesterday's failed vote, Obama in his answer namedrops Democratic congressional leaders and admits that he didn't call any House Republicans lamenting, "I tend not to be that persuasive on that side of the aisle."
Now, whether Republicans pounce on this comment is left to be seen, I for one don't think it would even be that effective, at least until someone can name a single rank-and-file House Democrat that McCain contacted this week.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
Time to party like it's 1929
An observation: Who was the PR genius over at the Secretary Of The Treasury's office or at the white house that allowed today's bill in congress, and all of last week's discussion to use the word "bailout?" How can you spin that word positively?
Today's polls 9/29
Well it's been a while since I've done a polling analysis but I wanted to wait until there was some smoke clearing after the debate and also see where the numbers may move after the financial crisis news begins to become more sobering to average voters.
I've been scratching my head a little bit recently as some places that are generally more working class and may be hit harder by the economy we see McCain holding an edge or making some inroads, especially in places like Ohio, where the latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows McCain holding a slim 1 point lead. This is a little odd, only because McCain is trailing by big numbers in some of the national daily trackers and it looks like Obama carrying a 4-7 point lead, with today's Gallup showing Obama at +8, his biggest numbers in months. Ohio generally holds to the CW, and as a bellweather state seems to keep it's own numbers pretty close to the polls so it's kind of an anamoly that with McCain's numbers at his worst, he still holds on in Ohio. Or maybe he just has the state locked up. The coming days will reveal more here I think.
Obama seems to have pulled ahead in the oddest place though, North Carolina, which has showed McCain holding roughly a 3-5 point lead throughout the campaign and looked generally out of reach for Obama, has now had two reliable polls in a row showing him +2 there. North Carolina would be a great pickup for Obama, he's defintely not given up the state, and he continues to advertise heavily there, visit the state regularly, and has opened over 20 field offices across the state. If Obama can hold his lead there, and also in neighboring Virgina, where fresh polls show him with his strongest leads yet (+3, and +5 respectfully in two days) then losing states like Ohio and Florida, where McCain maintains his edge, would not be a deathblow to his campaign.
With Obama's national numbers surging, it seems he has a much bigger map to play with now, and can again force McCain to play defense in his advertising, and force McCain also to make desperate gambles (see: campaign suspension) while Obama continues to grow his ground game and command the issues going into the final stretch of the election.
More good polling news for Obama continues to come out of Michigan and Pennsylvania, places where McCain was attempting some offense, but with some polls showing Michigan in the double digits and two separate polls from Pennsylvania showing Obama at +7 and +8, McCain's two hopes to erode Obama on his own turf seems to be fading.
I predict Obama's polling lead will stay the same, maybe the race will tighten up a little bit with the upcoming debates and as people take in the congressional strikeout that happened this weekend, but if the election were held today, Obama would have it in a walk.
I've been scratching my head a little bit recently as some places that are generally more working class and may be hit harder by the economy we see McCain holding an edge or making some inroads, especially in places like Ohio, where the latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows McCain holding a slim 1 point lead. This is a little odd, only because McCain is trailing by big numbers in some of the national daily trackers and it looks like Obama carrying a 4-7 point lead, with today's Gallup showing Obama at +8, his biggest numbers in months. Ohio generally holds to the CW, and as a bellweather state seems to keep it's own numbers pretty close to the polls so it's kind of an anamoly that with McCain's numbers at his worst, he still holds on in Ohio. Or maybe he just has the state locked up. The coming days will reveal more here I think.
Obama seems to have pulled ahead in the oddest place though, North Carolina, which has showed McCain holding roughly a 3-5 point lead throughout the campaign and looked generally out of reach for Obama, has now had two reliable polls in a row showing him +2 there. North Carolina would be a great pickup for Obama, he's defintely not given up the state, and he continues to advertise heavily there, visit the state regularly, and has opened over 20 field offices across the state. If Obama can hold his lead there, and also in neighboring Virgina, where fresh polls show him with his strongest leads yet (+3, and +5 respectfully in two days) then losing states like Ohio and Florida, where McCain maintains his edge, would not be a deathblow to his campaign.
With Obama's national numbers surging, it seems he has a much bigger map to play with now, and can again force McCain to play defense in his advertising, and force McCain also to make desperate gambles (see: campaign suspension) while Obama continues to grow his ground game and command the issues going into the final stretch of the election.
More good polling news for Obama continues to come out of Michigan and Pennsylvania, places where McCain was attempting some offense, but with some polls showing Michigan in the double digits and two separate polls from Pennsylvania showing Obama at +7 and +8, McCain's two hopes to erode Obama on his own turf seems to be fading.
I predict Obama's polling lead will stay the same, maybe the race will tighten up a little bit with the upcoming debates and as people take in the congressional strikeout that happened this weekend, but if the election were held today, Obama would have it in a walk.
If it seems like the sky is falling, it really might be...
The Dow dropped almost 800 points today, the largest plunge in twenty years. Media coverage of the presidential election campaign has taken a backseat to the US financial crisis. I think Americans are still waiting for somebody out there to explain what's going on. We don't know what's happening, we just know it's bad...
I'm looking forward to Thursday night. Maybe watching the VP debate will cheer me up. I wonder though, is the bar being set too low for Sarah Palin? What if instead of being a total trainwreck she's just like a three car pile-up? Will the media be proclaiming that she's made a comeback? I don't think anyone is planning on her knocking this debate out of the park.
I'm looking forward to Thursday night. Maybe watching the VP debate will cheer me up. I wonder though, is the bar being set too low for Sarah Palin? What if instead of being a total trainwreck she's just like a three car pile-up? Will the media be proclaiming that she's made a comeback? I don't think anyone is planning on her knocking this debate out of the park.
Obama offers calm at rally in Colorado
From his prepared remarks, notice he doesn't mention that bill failed entirely, but that the bill encountered "bumps. . .and tribulations:"
"And today, Democrats and Republicans in Washington have a responsibility to make sure that an emergency rescue package is put forward that can at least stop the immediate problems we have so we can begin to plan for the future. As I said, this is a hard thing to do. And right now Democratic and Republican leaders have agreed but members have not yet agreed.
There are going to be some bumps and trials and tribulations and ups and down before we get this rescue package done. It is important for the American public and for the markets to say calm because things are never smooth in congress and to understand that it will get done. That we are going to make sure an emergency package is put together because it is required for us to stabilize the markets and to make sure that when a small business-person wakes up tomorrow morning, he will be able to make payroll.
We are not going to lose jobs at an even faster clip than we are doing right now. I am confident we are going to get there but it’s going to be sort of rocky. It’s sort of like flying into Denver. You know you’re going to land but it’s not always fun going over those mountains."
Nothing new or shattering, pretty much his standard boilerplate of cautionary caution on the bill's substance, but notice he doesn't mention McCain or any House Republicans by name.
"And today, Democrats and Republicans in Washington have a responsibility to make sure that an emergency rescue package is put forward that can at least stop the immediate problems we have so we can begin to plan for the future. As I said, this is a hard thing to do. And right now Democratic and Republican leaders have agreed but members have not yet agreed.
There are going to be some bumps and trials and tribulations and ups and down before we get this rescue package done. It is important for the American public and for the markets to say calm because things are never smooth in congress and to understand that it will get done. That we are going to make sure an emergency package is put together because it is required for us to stabilize the markets and to make sure that when a small business-person wakes up tomorrow morning, he will be able to make payroll.
We are not going to lose jobs at an even faster clip than we are doing right now. I am confident we are going to get there but it’s going to be sort of rocky. It’s sort of like flying into Denver. You know you’re going to land but it’s not always fun going over those mountains."
Nothing new or shattering, pretty much his standard boilerplate of cautionary caution on the bill's substance, but notice he doesn't mention McCain or any House Republicans by name.
House floor in chaos as bailout bill fails to pass and stock market crashes
The finger pointing has begun on the floor in the Houe Of Representatives as Speaker Pelosi and other congressional leaders struggle to flip the 20 or so votes the bill failed to pass by.
House Republicans are accusing Pelosi of having made too partisan of a speech urging her fellow congressmen to vote for the bill.
Mark Halperin says, according to a "senior congressional aid" there is "no chance for a second vote on Monday."
The candidates have yet to release statements.
I'll update here when they do.
House Republicans are accusing Pelosi of having made too partisan of a speech urging her fellow congressmen to vote for the bill.
Mark Halperin says, according to a "senior congressional aid" there is "no chance for a second vote on Monday."
The candidates have yet to release statements.
I'll update here when they do.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Although he ends on a low note
He kinda spouted his campaign statements and that wasn't a strong final statement.
Debate Round-up
I'm calling tonight's debate a draw. Both candidates got their points across well. Obama missed some opportunities to criticize McCain, McCain let his sarcastic smirk come across a few too many times. McCain also condescended Obama by repeating that he doesn't understand national security issues.
David Brooks gave an interview on NPR before the debate and he said that people don't remember what the candidates say during the televised debates, they remember how they said it. The public reaction will began to form tonight in response to these debates. Was McCain too sarcastic? Was Obama not tough enough? Is McCain old hat? Is he just too old? Is Obama really going to bring change?
The VP debate is next Friday, Oct 3. Between tonight and the start of the buzz around the next debate, the public and the pundits will be hashing out these fundamental questions of performance and character.
David Brooks gave an interview on NPR before the debate and he said that people don't remember what the candidates say during the televised debates, they remember how they said it. The public reaction will began to form tonight in response to these debates. Was McCain too sarcastic? Was Obama not tough enough? Is McCain old hat? Is he just too old? Is Obama really going to bring change?
The VP debate is next Friday, Oct 3. Between tonight and the start of the buzz around the next debate, the public and the pundits will be hashing out these fundamental questions of performance and character.
Obama brings it home to Bush
Nothing says a strong win like going after President %30, it'll be what a lot of people remember from this debate.
Closing arguments and al-Qaeda
Both candidates looking for the strong finish, Obama was kinda weak and stuck to Democratic talking points and seemed on defense. McCain's was a little rambling though, and it feels like this thing should be over now.
Obama switching over to enregy and oil debate
He doesn't want to play defense with McCain on Russia.
Obama using the same "I agree" argument with mcCain
He got criticism for this during his debates with Hillary.
McCain goes way to the right
Where Obama was tough on Russia, McCain is hostile, but he's been there.
Obama getting tough on Russia
It's good for him so that he doesn't have to play defense with McCain, but the nuclear question is a good chance for Obama to prove bipartisanship, but McCain is still looking angry.
McCain brought up the seal
Oh man, silly season, but Obama did bring up the Prime Minister of Spain thing.
Obama makes the talk argument
McCain butchers Ahmadinejads name and brings up the preconditions argument, an old one that Hillary brought up too. Not a strong argument.
Iran and nuclear weapons
Another really safe debate for both candidates. Obama has the chance to look really presidential here.
McCain going for experience
He's going back a long time, it's also a good move on his part, I'll still say this thing is tied, but McCain had the lowered expectations, so a tie goes to him.
Both candidates comfortable on foregin policy
This is a good exchange, both candidates trying to seem more comfortable in this area, Obama is the one who has something to prove here. This is a debate McCain doesn't have to win.
Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory
McCain is really going for the jugular tonight. I think it's a little polarizing, and again, energizes both bases.
McCain is bringing up Hillary's talking points
The subcommittee thing about Afghanistan is kinda tired, it didn't work when Hillary used.
The surge is kinda old news
"Victory" is a hard thing to talk about because neither candidate can define it.
McCain sticks with Republican talking points.
A good move, a lot of people are skeptical of the bailout and new spending. Oh and bringing up China was a solid play.
Obama switches the subject
As soon as he said "Iraq" it turned the whole thing around, he was waiting for that one.
But McCain brings it around, and now Obama is talking about the depression, that's kinda depressing, Obama needs to be more optimistic.
But McCain brings it around, and now Obama is talking about the depression, that's kinda depressing, Obama needs to be more optimistic.
Candidates seem neck and neck
Fans of both parties are rooting on their candidate tonight, both candidates are impressive, bringing up lot's of good points.
Who's Tom?
Who's Tom?
And the throat cutting begins
The civility of the debate is over.
It's turned into an attackfest and it seems both candidates are trying to be more "the man of the people," than the other, it's a very populist debate.
This is definitely an election that will be decided by who it seems is more anti-establishment than the other, this is definitely a "change" election and the argument here tonight is who will own this mantra after the election.
It's turned into an attackfest and it seems both candidates are trying to be more "the man of the people," than the other, it's a very populist debate.
This is definitely an election that will be decided by who it seems is more anti-establishment than the other, this is definitely a "change" election and the argument here tonight is who will own this mantra after the election.
Obama not stuttering
At least not right now at least, he seems to have gotten it mostly under control at first, he's also speaking more forcefully and passionatetely, on point and direct.
For those of us who've watched a lot of these debates, it's very interesting and definitely very noticable.
A lot of people taking their first or second look at him right now would probably be very impressed.
For those of us who've watched a lot of these debates, it's very interesting and definitely very noticable.
A lot of people taking their first or second look at him right now would probably be very impressed.
McCain's opening statement
Not as on point as Obama, but he's already touting bipartisanship as the way to go, which could be a hit on Obama as the whole campaign he's tried to say that he has a more remarkable record of reaching across the aisle than his opponent.
He's also clearly reaching for the base here, trying to get sympathy by making House Republicans seem like the victims throughout the whole crisis.
The foreign oil statement wasn't neccessary.
He's also clearly reaching for the base here, trying to get sympathy by making House Republicans seem like the victims throughout the whole crisis.
The foreign oil statement wasn't neccessary.
Obama's opening statement
This is clearly rehearsed as his usual stuttering and cerebral response isn't prevelant in his answer. He's being poignant and direct, addressing the public directly, he looks very statesmanlike and his initial response seems very partisan and he's already attacked Bush and tried to link him to McCain.
Live from Orange County, CA
Okay everyone else may be "live" from Mississippi, but I'm watching the debate on CNN and that's just as good from where I'm at.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Bailing out the bail out
I don't think there's anything that's been written today detailing why the cabinet room talks today fell apart that doesn't automatically start a migraine while reading, so here it is in brief, to hopefully avoid that potential headache:
Bush starts the meeting and hands it over to the senior congressional leaders who defer to their party leader and nominee, who touts the conservative version of the bill, Republicans' heads explode and they feel ambushed, they defer to McCain who defers to his senior advisors, lot's of yelling, Bush tries to intervene, more yelling, Democrats claim Republicans are blocking the deal, Republicans say there never was a deal, more yelling.
The deal that was sunpposed to be a breakthrough in partisan politics caused everyone involved to basically further entrench their own party ideologies and create one of the most embarrassing partisan displays in modern politics.
Bush starts the meeting and hands it over to the senior congressional leaders who defer to their party leader and nominee, who touts the conservative version of the bill, Republicans' heads explode and they feel ambushed, they defer to McCain who defers to his senior advisors, lot's of yelling, Bush tries to intervene, more yelling, Democrats claim Republicans are blocking the deal, Republicans say there never was a deal, more yelling.
The deal that was sunpposed to be a breakthrough in partisan politics caused everyone involved to basically further entrench their own party ideologies and create one of the most embarrassing partisan displays in modern politics.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Don't ever cancel on David Letterman
David Letterman didn't take McCain's decision to suspend his campaign (and cancel his appearance on The Late Show) lightly. According to The Caucus:
During the taping, Mr. Letterman seemed exasperated by Mr. McCain’s move, according to a transcript provided by CBS:
When you call up, and you call up at the last minute and you cancel the show, Ladies and Gentlemen, that’s starting to smell. This is not the John McCain I know, by God. It makes me believe that something is going haywire with the campaign. I don’t know. Somebody’s gotten to him and somebody said, “You know what, blow Letterman off. He’s a lightweight.”
But here’s what you do. Sure there’s an economic crisis, and here’s what you do if you’re running for campaign in the middle of an economic crisis and it’s about to crater. That’s a quote from him. I love that expression. The economy is about to crater. Well, I’d like to see that! Here’s what happens, the economy is about to crater. You’re a senator. You’re a fourth-term senator from Arizona. You go back to Washington. You handle what you need to handle. Don’t suspend your campaign. You let your campaign go on, shouldered by your vice presidential nominee, that’s what you do. You don’t quit….or is that really a good thing to do?
This guy doesn’t have an ounce of quit in him. So all of a sudden, we’re suspending the campaign? Look, if I drop dead right now, my hand to God, Paul’s taking over the show. You say, “I’ve got to get back to Washington to save this country.” Good for you. “And while I’m gone, campaigning in my stead will be my great running mate from the state of Alaska, Sarah Palin.” And she comes out and campaigns. What happened there? What’s the problem? Where is she? Why isn’t she doing that?
So I don’t know. But you heard it here first. This doesn’t smell right. This just doesn’t smell right. This is not the way a tested hero behaves. Somebody’s putting something in his Metamucil.
McCain puts his foot down
The McCain campaign has just released a statement saying that if congress does not reach a deal on the bailout package by Friday, McCain will NOT debate, according to campaign aides, they also want to swap next Friday's VP debates for the first presidential debate; further fueling the media fire that Sarah Palin is being shielded and protected and kept from answering questions.
Many will accuse the McCain campaign of trying to buy more time for Palin to get prepared, especially after yet another grueling prime-time interview with a major network aired tonight where Palin demurred on several questions about the current economy and resorted too an "I'll get back to you," type statement when Couric pressed Palin for examples on when John McCain had supported government regulation in the past.
Many will accuse the McCain campaign of trying to buy more time for Palin to get prepared, especially after yet another grueling prime-time interview with a major network aired tonight where Palin demurred on several questions about the current economy and resorted too an "I'll get back to you," type statement when Couric pressed Palin for examples on when John McCain had supported government regulation in the past.
Let the politics begin!!
With McCain's new announcement about suspending his campaign and wanting to postpone the debates, each campaign is struggling to come out on top with both sides issuing statements and Obama holding a press conference in Florida following a rally there.
The blogs are on fire as this is clearly the new hot issue of the week, as can be predicted in modern politics this issue has propelled both campaigns into a firefight of conference calls, emails, press releases and potshots, with both sides hoping to gain the political highroad.
Let's get it on!
The blogs are on fire as this is clearly the new hot issue of the week, as can be predicted in modern politics this issue has propelled both campaigns into a firefight of conference calls, emails, press releases and potshots, with both sides hoping to gain the political highroad.
Let's get it on!
McCain seeks to postpone this Friday's presidential debate
John McCain said in a statement today that he will be temporarily suspend his presidential campaign effective tomorrow and that he would also like to postpone the first presidential debate. This decision was made in light of the current economic crisis.
Is postponing the presidential debate a good idea? My thought is that McCain is attempting to show that he's willing to put "country first" by saying that he wants to take this time to deal with the financial crisis instead of focusing on this campaign. On the other hand, ditching out on the presidential debate seems like a bit of a cop out and raises some obvious questions. Is McCain not prepared for the debate and using the financial crisis as an excuse? The topic of this Friday's debate is national security.
I'll be disappointed if the debate is postponed. I think both McCain and Obama should show they can manage to juggle complicated issues simultaneously and move forward with the debate. After all, the president is responsible for making decisions on a whole host of complicated issues at the same time.
Is postponing the presidential debate a good idea? My thought is that McCain is attempting to show that he's willing to put "country first" by saying that he wants to take this time to deal with the financial crisis instead of focusing on this campaign. On the other hand, ditching out on the presidential debate seems like a bit of a cop out and raises some obvious questions. Is McCain not prepared for the debate and using the financial crisis as an excuse? The topic of this Friday's debate is national security.
I'll be disappointed if the debate is postponed. I think both McCain and Obama should show they can manage to juggle complicated issues simultaneously and move forward with the debate. After all, the president is responsible for making decisions on a whole host of complicated issues at the same time.
McCain to suspend campaign in light of the financial crisis, asks that Friday's debate be postponed
John McCain will be suspending his campaign to return to Washington, DC tomorrow to help facilitate a deal with congress on passing the bailout proposed by Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke. He has also called on Obama to join him, part of McCain's proposal is that he wants to cancel Friday's planned debate in Mississippi as well.
McCain's statement, in stark contrast from some of the remarks he's made this week, compares the current financial crisis to the aftermath of 9/11 and speaks with great urgency on the matter.
Here is a snippet of his remarks:
". . .It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration's proposal. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time."
He continues, talking about the need to rise above politics and making sure the leaders of both parties come together in a way that facilitates the passage of legislation through congress, the statement contains no jabs at Obama or Democratic lawmakers, but stresses the need for bipartisan support.
"We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved. I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night's debate until we have taken action to address this crisis. I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so."
The Obama campaign released a statement shortly thereafter through spokesman Bill Burton:
"At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details."
Note how the Obama statement immediately starts off by saying that the coming together of the campaigns was originally Obama's idea, but doesn't address anything in McCain's original statement, and doesn't draw any conclusions as to whether Obama or the campaign would agree to postpone Friday's debate.
Obama needs to be VERY careful here, if he rejects McCain's plea as a political stunt, like he did with McCain's statement last week about wanting to form a commission to investigate why Wall Street fell apart, then he risks a huge backlash from Republicans claiming, as has been a favorite attack of theirs in the past, that Obama puts his own Presidential ambitions before the needs of the country. Going along with McCain would be a smart play, and I think that the American people may breathe a sigh of relief if they see the two contenders for President, who've been deadlocked in a highly contentious campaign, working together on real solutions to the financial crisis.
As the leaders of their respective parties, both candidates hold a lot of power in decision making on the hill, and if a bipartisan compromise can be found to solve the current financial crisis, it may be just what ordinary Americans are looking for, and may give the average voter confidence that the system still works. However, if either tries to use it as a political stunt, blaming the other for why a compromise didn't work, or for barricading some needed changes for perceived political gain, then there could be the potential for huge backlash from voters that are sick and tired of politics, and are looking for REAL leadership right now.
***UPDATE: According to Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief debate coordinator, in regards to Friday's debate: "We can handle both," and according to another advisor in the Obama campaign. "the debate is on."
McCain's statement, in stark contrast from some of the remarks he's made this week, compares the current financial crisis to the aftermath of 9/11 and speaks with great urgency on the matter.
Here is a snippet of his remarks:
". . .It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration's proposal. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time."
He continues, talking about the need to rise above politics and making sure the leaders of both parties come together in a way that facilitates the passage of legislation through congress, the statement contains no jabs at Obama or Democratic lawmakers, but stresses the need for bipartisan support.
"We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved. I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night's debate until we have taken action to address this crisis. I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so."
The Obama campaign released a statement shortly thereafter through spokesman Bill Burton:
"At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details."
Note how the Obama statement immediately starts off by saying that the coming together of the campaigns was originally Obama's idea, but doesn't address anything in McCain's original statement, and doesn't draw any conclusions as to whether Obama or the campaign would agree to postpone Friday's debate.
Obama needs to be VERY careful here, if he rejects McCain's plea as a political stunt, like he did with McCain's statement last week about wanting to form a commission to investigate why Wall Street fell apart, then he risks a huge backlash from Republicans claiming, as has been a favorite attack of theirs in the past, that Obama puts his own Presidential ambitions before the needs of the country. Going along with McCain would be a smart play, and I think that the American people may breathe a sigh of relief if they see the two contenders for President, who've been deadlocked in a highly contentious campaign, working together on real solutions to the financial crisis.
As the leaders of their respective parties, both candidates hold a lot of power in decision making on the hill, and if a bipartisan compromise can be found to solve the current financial crisis, it may be just what ordinary Americans are looking for, and may give the average voter confidence that the system still works. However, if either tries to use it as a political stunt, blaming the other for why a compromise didn't work, or for barricading some needed changes for perceived political gain, then there could be the potential for huge backlash from voters that are sick and tired of politics, and are looking for REAL leadership right now.
***UPDATE: According to Rep. Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief debate coordinator, in regards to Friday's debate: "We can handle both," and according to another advisor in the Obama campaign. "the debate is on."
Monday, September 22, 2008
Tomorrow's news today
Quinnipiac University, a very influential polling company that always receives coverage in even mainstream media outlets will be releasing new battleground state polls from Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota tomorrow morning. All of these states have been leaning Obama in most recent average polls, so if the latest polling data shows big numbers moving towards Obama in what has been some of his most friendly territory than this will be the main media narrative up until the debates, putting more pressure on McCain to be strong against Obama on Friday.
However, if the numbers are bad for Obama and show him slipping, then people will question whether he's been using his current headwind with the economy best to his advantage and may question his relentless attacks on McCain as of late.
However, if the numbers are bad for Obama and show him slipping, then people will question whether he's been using his current headwind with the economy best to his advantage and may question his relentless attacks on McCain as of late.
Obama takes the low road
The Washington Post released an article today that shows a little unhappiness with the new tone of the Obama campaign.
After unceasingly attacking McCain for the false claims his campaign has made over the past couple of weeks, Obama stretches some thruths of his own, releasing ads exaggerating McCain's positions on social security reform and immigration in the hotly contested states of Florida and New Mexico.
The piece is scathing against Obama, as the reporter admits that she had originally sympathized with Obama in an article she published last week, but now seems betrayed by a campaign that had once decried such hyperbole in campaign ads, but has hoped to slip these by a usual attentive news machine that is now completely focused on the financial crisis and the Bush administation's bailout.
Obama has never had a problem going negative, and has seemed to have a knack for letting the media obsess about his candidates' negativity before going negative himself, keeping the attention focused on his opponent while whacking them in his own carefully released advertisements.
He did the same thing to Hillary Clinton at the height of the bitter Texas/Ohio rivarly. (Remember "shame on you Barack Obama!")?
This strategy has worked in the past and I think Obama may have successfully buried the lead here with these new ads.
The Washington Post sums it up perfectly with a loaded bit of snark:
"To Democrats who worry about whether their nominee is willing to do whatever it takes to win: You can calm down."
After unceasingly attacking McCain for the false claims his campaign has made over the past couple of weeks, Obama stretches some thruths of his own, releasing ads exaggerating McCain's positions on social security reform and immigration in the hotly contested states of Florida and New Mexico.
The piece is scathing against Obama, as the reporter admits that she had originally sympathized with Obama in an article she published last week, but now seems betrayed by a campaign that had once decried such hyperbole in campaign ads, but has hoped to slip these by a usual attentive news machine that is now completely focused on the financial crisis and the Bush administation's bailout.
Obama has never had a problem going negative, and has seemed to have a knack for letting the media obsess about his candidates' negativity before going negative himself, keeping the attention focused on his opponent while whacking them in his own carefully released advertisements.
He did the same thing to Hillary Clinton at the height of the bitter Texas/Ohio rivarly. (Remember "shame on you Barack Obama!")?
This strategy has worked in the past and I think Obama may have successfully buried the lead here with these new ads.
The Washington Post sums it up perfectly with a loaded bit of snark:
"To Democrats who worry about whether their nominee is willing to do whatever it takes to win: You can calm down."
McCain versus the Media continued...
Mark Ambinder cited another instance today of the McCain campaign's crusade to discredit reporters by accusing them of being Obama supporters. I blogged about this strategy last Tuesday, Sept 16th. Today a representative from the McCain campaign accused Ben Smith of being "in the tank for Obama" during an interview.
The media has been hitting McCain hard lately for his deceptive ads, we'll have to wait and see whether the McCain campaigns strategy is doing anything more than pissing off reporters...
The media has been hitting McCain hard lately for his deceptive ads, we'll have to wait and see whether the McCain campaigns strategy is doing anything more than pissing off reporters...
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Presidential candidates vow to keep promises despite economic crisis
In separate interviews today both presidential candidates stated that they would not alter major pieces of their respective platforms in response to the current economic crisis. Barack Obama claims that in spite of the mounting national debt incurred by the recent Wall Street bailouts he would continue to pursue the implementation of a costly universal healthcare plan. To that same end John McCain said that he would seek to make the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans permanent.
Both men's decision not to alter their platforms raises questions about both candidates' readiness to lead the nation during a seriously ailing economy - especially in light of the fact that both men continue pledging to cut taxes on the middle class. The NYTimes sums these questions up nicely here.
The recent Wall Street bailouts, which both candidates initially said they opposed, should make for some interesting questions in this Friday's first presidential debate. The national focus on the economy is thought to lend a leg up to Barack Obama, we'll see how he makes the most of this advantage between now and November.
Both men's decision not to alter their platforms raises questions about both candidates' readiness to lead the nation during a seriously ailing economy - especially in light of the fact that both men continue pledging to cut taxes on the middle class. The NYTimes sums these questions up nicely here.
The recent Wall Street bailouts, which both candidates initially said they opposed, should make for some interesting questions in this Friday's first presidential debate. The national focus on the economy is thought to lend a leg up to Barack Obama, we'll see how he makes the most of this advantage between now and November.
Democratic congressional leaders reject administration proposal
Nancy Pelosi, in a statement released just now, said that Democrats will not "simply hand over a $700 billion blank check to Wall Street and hope for a better outcome." This comes as many economists agree that a speedy passage of the government bailout may be the only way to keep the world financial markets from complete meltdown.
Also, Sen,. Pat Leahy (D-Vt.) said "We will do something this week — but if we learned anything from right after 9/11, it’s that the biggest mistake is to pass anything they ask for just because it’s an emergency.”
The 110th congress, which has a slight Democratic majority and faces dismal approval ratings, has given in to the Bush administration on almost every major issue, from Iraq war funding, to FISA, to this year's energy bill, has been criticized by Republicans and the media for being a cesspool of partisan gridlock, backroom deals, and very little action on major issues, faces it's biggest test with the global markets literally days away from one of the worst crises of the last 100 years.
With everyone looking to their elected officials right now for respite and leadership on probably the most important issue of the entire election campaign, Democratic leaders are under extreme pressure to prove they can deliver when the metal meets the meat, and would do a lot to reassure voters that an Obama administration in conjunction with a Democratic majority congress, would deliver solutions to real problems and that they can be trusted at the helm of government, at one of the most crucial times in history.
Also, Sen,. Pat Leahy (D-Vt.) said "We will do something this week — but if we learned anything from right after 9/11, it’s that the biggest mistake is to pass anything they ask for just because it’s an emergency.”
The 110th congress, which has a slight Democratic majority and faces dismal approval ratings, has given in to the Bush administration on almost every major issue, from Iraq war funding, to FISA, to this year's energy bill, has been criticized by Republicans and the media for being a cesspool of partisan gridlock, backroom deals, and very little action on major issues, faces it's biggest test with the global markets literally days away from one of the worst crises of the last 100 years.
With everyone looking to their elected officials right now for respite and leadership on probably the most important issue of the entire election campaign, Democratic leaders are under extreme pressure to prove they can deliver when the metal meets the meat, and would do a lot to reassure voters that an Obama administration in conjunction with a Democratic majority congress, would deliver solutions to real problems and that they can be trusted at the helm of government, at one of the most crucial times in history.
Both candidates being too cautious on the government bailout
Politico has a scathing story up about both candidates saying nothing in response to Scretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson's planned proposal for the US government to buy up hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgage debt in an effort to stave off a financial meltdown.
As senators and leaders of their respective parties, the candidates could easily be in Washington working with congressional leaders and government officials to either pass legislation in response to the proposal, or work to better understand and perhaps manipulate the principles of Paulson's plan.
Instead both candidates have released statements heavy on vague caution and equivocation, while both are attacking the other for doing nothing and releasing statements that are too cautious.
Silly season indeed.
True leadership is what is needed now, not caution, nuance, and "wait and see" politics.
As senators and leaders of their respective parties, the candidates could easily be in Washington working with congressional leaders and government officials to either pass legislation in response to the proposal, or work to better understand and perhaps manipulate the principles of Paulson's plan.
Instead both candidates have released statements heavy on vague caution and equivocation, while both are attacking the other for doing nothing and releasing statements that are too cautious.
Silly season indeed.
True leadership is what is needed now, not caution, nuance, and "wait and see" politics.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
The first presidential debate is next Friday!
The presidential debates this year will follow a less structured format where the moderator will ask questions but the candidates will also be able to ask questions and directly challenge each other (read more about in the NYTimes here). The vice-presidential debate, at the behest of the McCain campaign, will be more structured with only the moderator asking the questions.
The perceived outcome of the presidential debates could be major turning point in the election campaign. I certainly hope all those undecided voters out there will watch so they can finally get the information they need to make a decision. If you've been living under a rock for the past year, this is your chance to see the candidates in action!
The perceived outcome of the presidential debates could be major turning point in the election campaign. I certainly hope all those undecided voters out there will watch so they can finally get the information they need to make a decision. If you've been living under a rock for the past year, this is your chance to see the candidates in action!
It finally comes out. . .
Even as Obama pulls ahead in almost all National polls this week, and McCain struggles to get the upper hand on the economy after a week of missteps and flip-flops in the face of a faltering financial system, The Associated Press drops a bomb sure to light up the political pundits.
A snippet: "Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles. The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points."
Politico already has a companion piece here.
This could be bad news for the Obama campaign, but is probably something they've anticipated, and their voter registration efforts reflect their knowledge about these statistics and is shown by their unprecedented efforts to register and increase voter turnout amongst younger voters, black voters, and Latino voters, all groups where Obama holds huge margins in all reliable polling.
Mostly the bad news for Obama will probably be that these statistics will be hashed and rehashed by the media, bringing the subject of race and racism to the front of the media narrative, something the Obama campaign has avoided througout the campaign.
A snippet: "Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles. The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points."
Politico already has a companion piece here.
This could be bad news for the Obama campaign, but is probably something they've anticipated, and their voter registration efforts reflect their knowledge about these statistics and is shown by their unprecedented efforts to register and increase voter turnout amongst younger voters, black voters, and Latino voters, all groups where Obama holds huge margins in all reliable polling.
Mostly the bad news for Obama will probably be that these statistics will be hashed and rehashed by the media, bringing the subject of race and racism to the front of the media narrative, something the Obama campaign has avoided througout the campaign.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
McCain's new populist tone
McCain has been taking a lot of flak from the newsmedia and Democrats recently for his new populist intoned speeches and positions. Skeptical reporters have been going after him pretty hard for changing his positions on government regulation and mock his supposed "man of the people" tone, especially in the face of his virtual blackout to the press, which the McCain campaign regulated hoping to discipline their message, which was a smart play at first, and got their struggling campaign back on it's feet, but McCain's once forgiving press coverage is now almost overtly hostile, angering conservatives who already loathe the mainstream media for it's supposed liberal tilt. I don't neccessarily think the press is biased towards McCain, I just think their feelings are just hurt, and the Mac they knew is not the Mac they know now.
But that's another story entirely.
I think McCain's new fight the power message is a great idea and it's perhaps the only thing that can pull him ahead of Obama, who has been focused on the economy a lot longer than McCain has been, and he's laid out a lot of policy on the economy over the summer, while McCain has spent most of the election trying to focus on national security, as that is perceived by people to be his strength.
If America was facing a major national security crisis, much like it's facing an economic crisis, then we would probably see Obama's numbers tanking and it would be the end of his chances for victory in Novemeber. The fact that McCain hasn't fallen off of the cliff in the face of all of this economic uncertainty shows he's still got some fight in him and maybe a good chance to see this through, however, I think the democrats have succeeded in framing the tumbling economy as 150% the fault of Republicans and George Bush, and that may be some hard static for McCain to fight through.
His numbers are good in some key states, and places like Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania have been seeing some competitive numbers for McCain, showing that his new image as a populist pugilist ready to kick out the greedy fat cats that caused this whole mess and fix the nations woes with one solid single stroke may be going over with weary Reagan Democrats still not totally ready to align with Obama. If McCain is going to win, it's going to be here, in the rustbelt midwest, this is always the region hit hardest by economic woes, (they don't call it the "rustbelt" for nothing.) All McCain needs is just two of those states I just mentioned and it's over for Obama, and the democrats can start threatening to move to Canada again.
Obama's numbers are getting stronger in the mountain west, but the election will be decided, again, in the heart of America's blue collar, working class, midwest. Whoever get's these voters get's the white house.
But that's another story entirely.
I think McCain's new fight the power message is a great idea and it's perhaps the only thing that can pull him ahead of Obama, who has been focused on the economy a lot longer than McCain has been, and he's laid out a lot of policy on the economy over the summer, while McCain has spent most of the election trying to focus on national security, as that is perceived by people to be his strength.
If America was facing a major national security crisis, much like it's facing an economic crisis, then we would probably see Obama's numbers tanking and it would be the end of his chances for victory in Novemeber. The fact that McCain hasn't fallen off of the cliff in the face of all of this economic uncertainty shows he's still got some fight in him and maybe a good chance to see this through, however, I think the democrats have succeeded in framing the tumbling economy as 150% the fault of Republicans and George Bush, and that may be some hard static for McCain to fight through.
His numbers are good in some key states, and places like Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania have been seeing some competitive numbers for McCain, showing that his new image as a populist pugilist ready to kick out the greedy fat cats that caused this whole mess and fix the nations woes with one solid single stroke may be going over with weary Reagan Democrats still not totally ready to align with Obama. If McCain is going to win, it's going to be here, in the rustbelt midwest, this is always the region hit hardest by economic woes, (they don't call it the "rustbelt" for nothing.) All McCain needs is just two of those states I just mentioned and it's over for Obama, and the democrats can start threatening to move to Canada again.
Obama's numbers are getting stronger in the mountain west, but the election will be decided, again, in the heart of America's blue collar, working class, midwest. Whoever get's these voters get's the white house.
dear blog, here's a little post for you to snack on
Dear Blog,
Sorry I've gotten behind on your care and feeding. You must be feeling starved! The election coverage this week has been tired and the news media has been focused on the economy / financial crisis. Somebody needs to inject some new energy into the presidential campaign. Something to tide us over until the debates next Friday...
- L.
PS: This week I learned that Sarah Palin has a tanning bed in the governor's mansion in Alaska. That pretty much sums up the quality of the election coverage right now...
Sorry I've gotten behind on your care and feeding. You must be feeling starved! The election coverage this week has been tired and the news media has been focused on the economy / financial crisis. Somebody needs to inject some new energy into the presidential campaign. Something to tide us over until the debates next Friday...
- L.
PS: This week I learned that Sarah Palin has a tanning bed in the governor's mansion in Alaska. That pretty much sums up the quality of the election coverage right now...
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Today's polls 9/17
Well the Obama campaign in Chicago is breathing a little easier today, with a CBS News/New York Times poll that came out today showing him with a 5 point lead over McCain 48-43, The Gallup daily tracker also shows Obama +2 while the Rasmussen daily tracker has McCain +1.
There was a also a plethora of new CNN polling released today in battleground states that also showed good news for Obama, but nothing really game changing, except for maybe showing +4 in Florida and +2 in Ohio. The CNN poll also shows Obama +3 in Wisconsin, and McCain +1 in North Carolina and +5 in Indiana. Now the CNN poll seems to lean Democratic by a point or two in their internals, so even if we gave McCain 2 extra points it would still be good news for Obama to be -3 in North Carolina (a place he's been most of the campaign) and +1 in Florida, it seems that McCain's bounce may be over and the race is either tightening as it continues, or Obama may be on the upswing.
Watching the evening news programs. I've noticed that there's also been a lot of negative news coverage of the McCain campaign as of late, hammering McCain on his change in positions on de-regulation of financial institutions in the wake of the current market crisis, conventional wisdom says that Obama could probably ride that wave to November, but I think it's still really important for him that he simplifies his economic message into more digestible sound bites for the average voter and channels his inner Clinton (Bill) in the wake of this terrible news on Wall Street.
There was a also a plethora of new CNN polling released today in battleground states that also showed good news for Obama, but nothing really game changing, except for maybe showing +4 in Florida and +2 in Ohio. The CNN poll also shows Obama +3 in Wisconsin, and McCain +1 in North Carolina and +5 in Indiana. Now the CNN poll seems to lean Democratic by a point or two in their internals, so even if we gave McCain 2 extra points it would still be good news for Obama to be -3 in North Carolina (a place he's been most of the campaign) and +1 in Florida, it seems that McCain's bounce may be over and the race is either tightening as it continues, or Obama may be on the upswing.
Watching the evening news programs. I've noticed that there's also been a lot of negative news coverage of the McCain campaign as of late, hammering McCain on his change in positions on de-regulation of financial institutions in the wake of the current market crisis, conventional wisdom says that Obama could probably ride that wave to November, but I think it's still really important for him that he simplifies his economic message into more digestible sound bites for the average voter and channels his inner Clinton (Bill) in the wake of this terrible news on Wall Street.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
At least we got a good 3 hours this morning where the candidates spoke about real issues
Before this story and this grabbed everyone's attention this afternoon.
At this point in the race I think Jesus Christ himself could return and McCain and Obama would still be attacking eachother over whether they were more deserving of the rapture, but hey, this is politics, it's a rough game.
The race has definitely tightened since last weekend with McCain holding a roughly 1 point lead in most polling averages, a sign that either his bounce is fading, the Palin honeymoon is over, or people are favoring Obama's economic message.
A bad economy favors Democrats this year, but neither candidate has really been able to break through with a one sentence statement that voters can identify with on the economy message, and although each will blame eachother's party, the Bush administration and those "fat cats" on wall street for all their greed and manipulation. It'll be really interesting to see what actually breaks through the static over the next couple of months, if anything at all.
Obama donned his suit and tie today to make a big speech on the economy, but nothing really new was said that he hasn't laid out in economic speeches before and I think if he seriously wants to get this race by the horns he has to have something catchy his campaign can put on a bumper sticker in order to really break through the almost hourly noise of campaign barbs, bad news, and the daily gaffe count.
Maybe he could try being more optimistic, voters responded to his hope message well, and I think people now are looking for more hope and solutions and less badgering and insults.
In fact, I think McCain has already tried to steal this mantle, with his speeches being generally more optimistic and enthusiastic, even though he got in trouble for saying "the fundamentals of our economy are strong. . ." I honestly think voters will respect that, people don't want doom and gloom from their politicians, they want to feel pride in their country and be inspired. If Obama allows McCain to wrestle this message away from him, then he may never be able to get back the lead he enjoyed for the majority of this campaign that he has suddenly seen slip from his fingers.
At this point in the race I think Jesus Christ himself could return and McCain and Obama would still be attacking eachother over whether they were more deserving of the rapture, but hey, this is politics, it's a rough game.
The race has definitely tightened since last weekend with McCain holding a roughly 1 point lead in most polling averages, a sign that either his bounce is fading, the Palin honeymoon is over, or people are favoring Obama's economic message.
A bad economy favors Democrats this year, but neither candidate has really been able to break through with a one sentence statement that voters can identify with on the economy message, and although each will blame eachother's party, the Bush administration and those "fat cats" on wall street for all their greed and manipulation. It'll be really interesting to see what actually breaks through the static over the next couple of months, if anything at all.
Obama donned his suit and tie today to make a big speech on the economy, but nothing really new was said that he hasn't laid out in economic speeches before and I think if he seriously wants to get this race by the horns he has to have something catchy his campaign can put on a bumper sticker in order to really break through the almost hourly noise of campaign barbs, bad news, and the daily gaffe count.
Maybe he could try being more optimistic, voters responded to his hope message well, and I think people now are looking for more hope and solutions and less badgering and insults.
In fact, I think McCain has already tried to steal this mantle, with his speeches being generally more optimistic and enthusiastic, even though he got in trouble for saying "the fundamentals of our economy are strong. . ." I honestly think voters will respect that, people don't want doom and gloom from their politicians, they want to feel pride in their country and be inspired. If Obama allows McCain to wrestle this message away from him, then he may never be able to get back the lead he enjoyed for the majority of this campaign that he has suddenly seen slip from his fingers.
McCain versus the Media
According to a recent NYTimes report John McCain has taken a new approach to attacking the media by accusing individual journalists who question his record of being Obama supporters.
This approach, which seems like it could prove to be fairly effective, plays into the overall McCain strategy of simply aiming to distract the public from the real issues at hand. By discrediting the people questioning McCain, McCain is able to avoid answering questions and further propagate the idea that a liberal media bias exists.
It's really pretty genius, but so so scary...
This approach, which seems like it could prove to be fairly effective, plays into the overall McCain strategy of simply aiming to distract the public from the real issues at hand. By discrediting the people questioning McCain, McCain is able to avoid answering questions and further propagate the idea that a liberal media bias exists.
It's really pretty genius, but so so scary...
David Brooks is not a Sarah Palin fan
In his NYTimes op-ed piece today, David Brooks makes the argument that Sarah Palin lacks the wisdom, judgement, and prudence necessary to be a potential president. It's a great piece, including the little history lesson on the Federalist papers...
Monday, September 15, 2008
Today's polls 9/15
With the election being only 6 weeks away, there's going to be a huge block of polling released en masse up until November, with new battleground polling probably released everyday, even today, there's been 3 different Ohio polls released and all from respectable polling firms, there's also polling that's been released from Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, Florida, and two polls from Virginia. If there had been any new Michigan numbers, then pretty much every single key state in this election would've been surveyed.
Let's start with Ohio, "the" state to win, if Obama wins here it's over, Republicans can't win without Ohio, and they have been targeting this state hard as of late. But for Obama, despite having over 70 field offices, an enthusiastic grassroots machine that's been in place all summer, a well funded ground game, and Hillary Clinton's presence in the state over the weekend, not a single poll released today shows him ahead, but Ohio, being a bellweather, seems to shift with the National polls and McCain is averaging about a 3 point lead there, which is just a hair above his national numbers. Obama was leading in almost every Ohio poll as recently as three weeks ago, and a Quinnipiac poll last week showed Obama ahead by four points, now it looks like, unless something happens, this all or nothing state could be out of Obama's grasp.
Pennsylvania showed some surprise polling here with a Fox News/Rasumussen poll showing the race at a literal tie. Now, much like the Minnesota poll that came out this weekend that also showed a tie, I wouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, although Obama's numbers have slipped in the Keystone State, as they've been slipping across the board, I think Obama still has an edge here, and probably will stay about 3-5 points ahead until November, his presence there during the Democratic primary did a lot to register new voters and get the citizens of Pennsylvania a good look at him, and I think that his attention to the state in April was precious for his campaign and can only hurt McCain.
Colorado has been on the top of everyone's list as one of the main battleground states this year, although it only has 9 electoral votes, the race right now is such that every state counts, (why do you think the Obama campaign is seriously trying to contest Montana?) The Fox News/Rasmussen poll released today shows McCain +2. Both Obama and Sarah Palin are in the state over the next two days, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of numbers we see at the end of this week, the state stands as a toss up right now, with earlier polling showing Obama with as much as a 4 point lead.
Florida has been covered on this blog very heavily, and I've said it here before, despite Obama's huge investments in the Sunshine State, it looks like America's wang will stay reliably red, today's polls show McCain ahead here by about 5 points, which is consistent with some of the good numbers he's been posting here lately, I think perhaps Obama's money may be spent better somewhere else. The surprising numbers on the Fox News/Rasmussen poll are the internals, which show Obama with some of his worst percentages amongst democrats out of all the polls released today, going to show that the Hillary loyalists down in Florida may not have gotten the memo.
Virginia is probably my favorite state to cover when I'm talking about polling, it's an exciting story, a former GOP bastion that's turned into a hard fought, legitimate battleground, and I'm pretty sure it could be the Ohio of 2008. And the Obama campaign has spared no expense here, a huge voter registration effort has been going on here for months and Obama knows it's a state he really needs to lockdown, especially with the race as close as it is, and despite McCain's increasingly impressive performance in national and state polling over the past couple of weeks, Virginia has been leaning Obama today, with the Fox News/Rasmussen poll showing The Old Dominion as a literal tie, and a SurveyUSA poll showing Obama ahead by 4 points. Now, McCain only started advertising here recently, and the CNN/Time poll released last week showed McCain ahead by 4 points, so, the constant back and forth in polling shows that Virginia, like Colorado, is really anyone's game, and unless something drastic happens between now and November 4th. It's going to come down to turnout and ground game, two things the Obama campaign is hoping they have the advantage on.
I wouldn't sell McCain short though, it's rare that a candidate himself funds the ground game and grassroots GOTV efforts, as the candidates money is better spent on advertising and staffing, it's usually the respective parties that keep those field offices open and fund those voter turnout machines, and right now the Republican National Committee is dwarfing the DNC in terms of money, McCain + The Republicans have roughly $150 million dollars on hand, including McCain's $84 million in public financing, which means although Obama has been smashing fundrasing records and will likely destroy McCain in money he'll be able to spend, the DNC remains a dead anchor to the Obama campaign, barely able to hold it's weight, struggling to meet financial goals, and spreading itself thin trying to fund Howard Dean's 50 state strategy, this is something to keep your eyes on, because if Obama has to spend his own money picking up his party's committee's slack, then he could be in for a world of trouble come late October.
Let's start with Ohio, "the" state to win, if Obama wins here it's over, Republicans can't win without Ohio, and they have been targeting this state hard as of late. But for Obama, despite having over 70 field offices, an enthusiastic grassroots machine that's been in place all summer, a well funded ground game, and Hillary Clinton's presence in the state over the weekend, not a single poll released today shows him ahead, but Ohio, being a bellweather, seems to shift with the National polls and McCain is averaging about a 3 point lead there, which is just a hair above his national numbers. Obama was leading in almost every Ohio poll as recently as three weeks ago, and a Quinnipiac poll last week showed Obama ahead by four points, now it looks like, unless something happens, this all or nothing state could be out of Obama's grasp.
Pennsylvania showed some surprise polling here with a Fox News/Rasumussen poll showing the race at a literal tie. Now, much like the Minnesota poll that came out this weekend that also showed a tie, I wouldn't put too much stock in these numbers, although Obama's numbers have slipped in the Keystone State, as they've been slipping across the board, I think Obama still has an edge here, and probably will stay about 3-5 points ahead until November, his presence there during the Democratic primary did a lot to register new voters and get the citizens of Pennsylvania a good look at him, and I think that his attention to the state in April was precious for his campaign and can only hurt McCain.
Colorado has been on the top of everyone's list as one of the main battleground states this year, although it only has 9 electoral votes, the race right now is such that every state counts, (why do you think the Obama campaign is seriously trying to contest Montana?) The Fox News/Rasmussen poll released today shows McCain +2. Both Obama and Sarah Palin are in the state over the next two days, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of numbers we see at the end of this week, the state stands as a toss up right now, with earlier polling showing Obama with as much as a 4 point lead.
Florida has been covered on this blog very heavily, and I've said it here before, despite Obama's huge investments in the Sunshine State, it looks like America's wang will stay reliably red, today's polls show McCain ahead here by about 5 points, which is consistent with some of the good numbers he's been posting here lately, I think perhaps Obama's money may be spent better somewhere else. The surprising numbers on the Fox News/Rasmussen poll are the internals, which show Obama with some of his worst percentages amongst democrats out of all the polls released today, going to show that the Hillary loyalists down in Florida may not have gotten the memo.
Virginia is probably my favorite state to cover when I'm talking about polling, it's an exciting story, a former GOP bastion that's turned into a hard fought, legitimate battleground, and I'm pretty sure it could be the Ohio of 2008. And the Obama campaign has spared no expense here, a huge voter registration effort has been going on here for months and Obama knows it's a state he really needs to lockdown, especially with the race as close as it is, and despite McCain's increasingly impressive performance in national and state polling over the past couple of weeks, Virginia has been leaning Obama today, with the Fox News/Rasmussen poll showing The Old Dominion as a literal tie, and a SurveyUSA poll showing Obama ahead by 4 points. Now, McCain only started advertising here recently, and the CNN/Time poll released last week showed McCain ahead by 4 points, so, the constant back and forth in polling shows that Virginia, like Colorado, is really anyone's game, and unless something drastic happens between now and November 4th. It's going to come down to turnout and ground game, two things the Obama campaign is hoping they have the advantage on.
I wouldn't sell McCain short though, it's rare that a candidate himself funds the ground game and grassroots GOTV efforts, as the candidates money is better spent on advertising and staffing, it's usually the respective parties that keep those field offices open and fund those voter turnout machines, and right now the Republican National Committee is dwarfing the DNC in terms of money, McCain + The Republicans have roughly $150 million dollars on hand, including McCain's $84 million in public financing, which means although Obama has been smashing fundrasing records and will likely destroy McCain in money he'll be able to spend, the DNC remains a dead anchor to the Obama campaign, barely able to hold it's weight, struggling to meet financial goals, and spreading itself thin trying to fund Howard Dean's 50 state strategy, this is something to keep your eyes on, because if Obama has to spend his own money picking up his party's committee's slack, then he could be in for a world of trouble come late October.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. . .
A real blast from the past here. Personally I think, with some thinner eyebrows, and maybe a wider tie and some dental work, that could have been our next president right there.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Who will benefit from the media backlash against McCain?
So it's only 8 weeks until election day, and as is typical in the fall right before the first Tuesday in November, the campaign has gotten nasty, McCain's campaign has seemed to not care that almost every elite media outlet and fairness website in the country, as well as television newscasts, has decried their new ads and campaign tactics as shameful at best and blatantly false at worst.
Democrats and the media have pounded McCain for the past week for the campaign's brutally negative tactics, and it's likely these attacks will simply amplify over the next week, which in turn may just cause Republicans to get even more nasty in their ads, as the conservative base relishes a fight with the media every chance they get, especially when their new superhero, Sarah Palin, has been the basis for many of these attacks.
Whether Palin deserves this roughshod treatment is another debate entirely, but with all of these factors to calculate, who will come out the winner when the dust has cleared?
Although Obama's numbers have slipped, he hasn't completely gone over the cliff, the race still remains mostly tied, with McCain holding roughly a 2% lead nationwide, and Obama remaing competitive in many key states. Obama's base has not deserted him, however, and his support among women and working class democrats has held, and his voter registration efforts continue in full swing. His decline seems mostly to be shifting from independents and white men, although it's his drop in support from Independents that would be most alarming to their campaign, as Obama has held an edge amongst Independents for most of the race. He's seen roughly an 8 point shift amongst those who identify with neither party, and these are usually the people who decide elections. If there's any light for Obama here though, it's that the American people, especially Independents, have long been weary of negative attacks, brutal mudslinging, and lies within a campaign, and McCain may see his own losses amongst this group soon, and by shoring up his base and igniting conservatives nationwide, McCain may have lost his moderate, maverick appeal that drew many independents to his campaign, independents that may be weary of Bush conservatism and religious fundamentalism at the top ranks of American politics.
But.
John McCain's advisors are not stupid, they know negative ads do their job, and the average American voter is not going to go online and research every point brought up in a campaign advertisement to check it for facts, and they may just take a candidate, especially one they may be leaning towards, at their word. If the negative, factually inaccurate ads didn't work, then the campaign wouldn't spend millions of dollars airing them all over the country. John McCain has also been able to play victim and villain extremely well, while hitting his opponent with a folding chair while the ref isn't watching and then crying foul when he is, they've put the Obama campaign in a very hard spot, especially when dealing with Sarah Palin, who they've cast brilliantly as both the attack dog role, and the wounded puppy. She is the victim of both a liberal slime operation, and a sexist media machine, the McCain campaign feeding these talking points at every turn, desperately trying to court disaffected supporters of Hillary Clinton, the Republicans even have to swallow their pride for the moment and watch as Sarah Palin and John McCain praise Senator Clinton, when just 6 months ago she was public enemy number one.
So my guess is we won't know until at least another week, but I see this one going into extra innings.
Democrats and the media have pounded McCain for the past week for the campaign's brutally negative tactics, and it's likely these attacks will simply amplify over the next week, which in turn may just cause Republicans to get even more nasty in their ads, as the conservative base relishes a fight with the media every chance they get, especially when their new superhero, Sarah Palin, has been the basis for many of these attacks.
Whether Palin deserves this roughshod treatment is another debate entirely, but with all of these factors to calculate, who will come out the winner when the dust has cleared?
Although Obama's numbers have slipped, he hasn't completely gone over the cliff, the race still remains mostly tied, with McCain holding roughly a 2% lead nationwide, and Obama remaing competitive in many key states. Obama's base has not deserted him, however, and his support among women and working class democrats has held, and his voter registration efforts continue in full swing. His decline seems mostly to be shifting from independents and white men, although it's his drop in support from Independents that would be most alarming to their campaign, as Obama has held an edge amongst Independents for most of the race. He's seen roughly an 8 point shift amongst those who identify with neither party, and these are usually the people who decide elections. If there's any light for Obama here though, it's that the American people, especially Independents, have long been weary of negative attacks, brutal mudslinging, and lies within a campaign, and McCain may see his own losses amongst this group soon, and by shoring up his base and igniting conservatives nationwide, McCain may have lost his moderate, maverick appeal that drew many independents to his campaign, independents that may be weary of Bush conservatism and religious fundamentalism at the top ranks of American politics.
But.
John McCain's advisors are not stupid, they know negative ads do their job, and the average American voter is not going to go online and research every point brought up in a campaign advertisement to check it for facts, and they may just take a candidate, especially one they may be leaning towards, at their word. If the negative, factually inaccurate ads didn't work, then the campaign wouldn't spend millions of dollars airing them all over the country. John McCain has also been able to play victim and villain extremely well, while hitting his opponent with a folding chair while the ref isn't watching and then crying foul when he is, they've put the Obama campaign in a very hard spot, especially when dealing with Sarah Palin, who they've cast brilliantly as both the attack dog role, and the wounded puppy. She is the victim of both a liberal slime operation, and a sexist media machine, the McCain campaign feeding these talking points at every turn, desperately trying to court disaffected supporters of Hillary Clinton, the Republicans even have to swallow their pride for the moment and watch as Sarah Palin and John McCain praise Senator Clinton, when just 6 months ago she was public enemy number one.
So my guess is we won't know until at least another week, but I see this one going into extra innings.
Friday, September 12, 2008
John McCain gets skewered on The View
The NYTimes summarizes his visit on the show today in this article. He actually gets called liar. Ouch...
Or you can watch it:
Or you can watch it:
About last night... Charles Gibson interviews Sarah Palin
Charles Gibson's interview last night with Sarah Palin is getting mixed reviews. Over all, she appeared quite nervous even when giving answers that were obviously rehearsed talking points. Gibson managed to stump Palin when he asked her about whether she agreed with the Bush doctrine. When she obviously didn't know what he was referring to, he explained it to Palin.
Personally, I thought Palin came across sounding naive. Her answers to the national security questions didn't seem well thought out. Charles Gibson gave her the opportunity to clarify some of the hardline stances she proclaimed (e.g. that the US should never second guess our support of any military action carried out by Israel), but she chose not to expound on her statements.
The second half of the interview airs tonight. The responses to the interview are still rolling in.
Personally, I thought Palin came across sounding naive. Her answers to the national security questions didn't seem well thought out. Charles Gibson gave her the opportunity to clarify some of the hardline stances she proclaimed (e.g. that the US should never second guess our support of any military action carried out by Israel), but she chose not to expound on her statements.
The second half of the interview airs tonight. The responses to the interview are still rolling in.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
McCain to open new field offices, beef up staff inkey states
Flush with cash after conservative Republicans finally begin emptying their pockets for the newly minted GOP ticket, the RNC has announced it will begin opening up as many as 20 field offices in key battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, as well as 10 in Iowa. They have also announced the addition of hundreds of new staffers in these states to battle the Obama field presence, which has been in place in these, and many other states, since the early summer.
Clinton predicts Obama victory
According to the pool report from today's press avail before the Obama/Clinton lunch meeting, after asked by a reporter what he thought of the state of the race, President Clinton predicted Obama would "win, and win handily."
Obama's response: "There you go. . .[he]knows a little something about politics."
When asked if he would be out on the trail frequently for Obama, Clinton responded, “I’ve agreed to do a substantial number of things. Whatever I’m asked to do."
Sandwiches and flatbread was apparently on the menu.
What was also on the menu (in my opinion), Obama asking, "So how in the hell do you win one of these things?"
Obama's response: "There you go. . .[he]knows a little something about politics."
When asked if he would be out on the trail frequently for Obama, Clinton responded, “I’ve agreed to do a substantial number of things. Whatever I’m asked to do."
Sandwiches and flatbread was apparently on the menu.
What was also on the menu (in my opinion), Obama asking, "So how in the hell do you win one of these things?"
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Obama camp hits back hard on sexism charges
Obama begins trotting out the female surrogates to try and remind the American public of McCain's shaky record on women's issues.
Whether McCain wins or loses depends on. . .
What Sarah Palin does between now and November.
It really is that simple.
She tanks, he tanks.
She soars, he soars.
It really is that simple.
She tanks, he tanks.
She soars, he soars.
Whether Obama wins or loses will depend on. . .
What he can learn from Bill Clinton tomorrow at their lunch date in Harlem before Obama addresses a forum on the anniversary of 9/11 focused on National Service that will air tomorrow evening.
If Obama sits at the knee of the master of democratic party politics, puts his pride aside and becomes a literal sponge, soaking up whatever tidbits Clinton may have for him, then he can maybe take away a few tricks and learn how to fight hard, be tough, and win those hearts and minds that Clinton held en masse for the 8 years he was president, and that Obama desperately needs if he's to win this election.
The former president, the only democratic president to have been re-elected in 64 years of American politics, has been known to delight in giving young upstarts of his party advice, and despite everything that's happened over the past year, Clinton still loves his party and he still loves his country, and it's well documented that he is disgusted by how he thinks President Bush has treated the country, treated his legacy, and for all intents and purposes, pretty much squandered, in Clinton's opinion, a path to economic security that he had carefully laid out.
Clinton knows how to battle Republicans, he knows to win against war heroes that try to turn elections about issues into cultural and character debates, and he sure as hell knows how to get people to trust your message, no matter what else has happened in the background.
If Obama keeps tapping Clinton, and fights like Clinton fought, John McCain should just go back to keeping his old senate seat warm again.
Another bit of news just released today, is that El 42 will be campaigning for Obama in Florida on September 29th, three days after the first debate. This goes to show that maybe Obama's recent homage to Clinton's record, both during the convention and on the road, has warmed the old statesman's heart and buried the hatchet between the two formerly bitter rivals. (Clinton in 1996, was the only Democrat to have won Florida, since Carter in 1976.)
Florida continues to stay a heated battleground, and with Obama's numbers tanking in the industrial midwest, Obama may have to throw a hail mary pass and place as many eggs in the electoral-vote-rich-Florida-basket that he can. Winning Florida would douse any hope McCain has of winning even if he carries Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.
Although Florida has been trending McCain this year, and especially recently, a litle buttering up by Bill Clinton could sway some older swing voters reminiscent of the economic stability and relative peace of the 1990's and possibly remember that the last time they took a gamble on a young fresh faced Democrat with an outside chance, it paid off.
If Obama sits at the knee of the master of democratic party politics, puts his pride aside and becomes a literal sponge, soaking up whatever tidbits Clinton may have for him, then he can maybe take away a few tricks and learn how to fight hard, be tough, and win those hearts and minds that Clinton held en masse for the 8 years he was president, and that Obama desperately needs if he's to win this election.
The former president, the only democratic president to have been re-elected in 64 years of American politics, has been known to delight in giving young upstarts of his party advice, and despite everything that's happened over the past year, Clinton still loves his party and he still loves his country, and it's well documented that he is disgusted by how he thinks President Bush has treated the country, treated his legacy, and for all intents and purposes, pretty much squandered, in Clinton's opinion, a path to economic security that he had carefully laid out.
Clinton knows how to battle Republicans, he knows to win against war heroes that try to turn elections about issues into cultural and character debates, and he sure as hell knows how to get people to trust your message, no matter what else has happened in the background.
If Obama keeps tapping Clinton, and fights like Clinton fought, John McCain should just go back to keeping his old senate seat warm again.
Another bit of news just released today, is that El 42 will be campaigning for Obama in Florida on September 29th, three days after the first debate. This goes to show that maybe Obama's recent homage to Clinton's record, both during the convention and on the road, has warmed the old statesman's heart and buried the hatchet between the two formerly bitter rivals. (Clinton in 1996, was the only Democrat to have won Florida, since Carter in 1976.)
Florida continues to stay a heated battleground, and with Obama's numbers tanking in the industrial midwest, Obama may have to throw a hail mary pass and place as many eggs in the electoral-vote-rich-Florida-basket that he can. Winning Florida would douse any hope McCain has of winning even if he carries Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.
Although Florida has been trending McCain this year, and especially recently, a litle buttering up by Bill Clinton could sway some older swing voters reminiscent of the economic stability and relative peace of the 1990's and possibly remember that the last time they took a gamble on a young fresh faced Democrat with an outside chance, it paid off.
Barack Obama's campaign strategy from here on out
The Obama campaign has been in somewhat of a tailspin since the GOP introduced Sarah Palin as McCain's runningmate. Now that Obama is no longer the newest kid on the scene, his message and his image seem to be getting a little stale with the American public.
So what should Obama do from now until November? Attacking Palin seems to keep her in the spotlight, should his campaign work to change the subject? Should they re-vamp Obama's campaign style? Should he risk going back to the crowd-pleasing speeches that he's turned away from in recent months?
Whatever he does, the Obama campaign needs to do it fast. They seems to be losing ground to the McCain-Palin ticket and even the smuggest of Democrats this year seem to be getting a little worried.
So what should Obama do from now until November? Attacking Palin seems to keep her in the spotlight, should his campaign work to change the subject? Should they re-vamp Obama's campaign style? Should he risk going back to the crowd-pleasing speeches that he's turned away from in recent months?
Whatever he does, the Obama campaign needs to do it fast. They seems to be losing ground to the McCain-Palin ticket and even the smuggest of Democrats this year seem to be getting a little worried.
Stay tuned for "pig-gate"
McCain's campaign is demanding an apology from Barack Obama after Obama used the phrase "you can put lipstick on a pig and it's still a pig" in reference to John McCain's promise of change. Apparently, because Palin used a joke involving lipstick and a pitbull, Obama's comment was perceived as sexist? The Obama campaign was quick to distribute a video of McCain using the same phrase... Stay tuned to hear the media debate whether this non-story is in fact a non-story. Sigh...
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Will Palin's "thanks but no thanks" about bridge to nowhere claim become her snipergate?
Sarah Palin's thunderous rise to the top of the nation's attention came with cheering by some, indifference by others, and outright disdain by the rest, her polarizing time at the top has been spent with endless scrutiny and damning accounts of her record from her opponents, and unlimited adulation from her supporters amongst a formerly lethargic and re-awakened base that brings to mind another similar account from just a few months ago.
When Hillary Clinton tried to beef up her foreign policy credentials by claiming she had been subjected to sniper fire when landing in Tuzla, Bosnia at the height of the Balkan crisis in the early 1990's, it was met with a huge media backlash when video surfaced showing her campaign plane landing safely and her and her entourage being greeted by smiling children.
Part of the reason there was such a backlash against Hillary Clinton is that there was an underlying conventional wisdom that festered within the back of the minds of the American populace that she was somehow deceitful, untruthful, or downright calculating, a factor which lead to her deep polarization amongst the American people and especially within the Democratic Party. So when the story broke it became an easy narrative for the media to push, and created further division amongst Democratic supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as further animosity from their Republican rivals.
The same rule now seems to be applying to Sarah Palin, who's rushed introduction lead to a lot of speculation amongst members of the media who felt that maybe perhaps there wasn't enough known about this politician and her rivals began combing every statement she ever made looking for contradiction, extremism, or anything that would lead to a sensational story.
Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later, the McCain campaign obviously didn't vet the candidate as well as they could've, or at least should've picked a better message for her to run on, but if Palin's blatant contradictions about being "for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it" gets more legs within the media, and becomes more of a driving narrative than a single story within a vast cycle, (becoming debate fodder) then the McCain campaign may need to play some serious defense and change their message dramatically.
When Hillary Clinton tried to beef up her foreign policy credentials by claiming she had been subjected to sniper fire when landing in Tuzla, Bosnia at the height of the Balkan crisis in the early 1990's, it was met with a huge media backlash when video surfaced showing her campaign plane landing safely and her and her entourage being greeted by smiling children.
Part of the reason there was such a backlash against Hillary Clinton is that there was an underlying conventional wisdom that festered within the back of the minds of the American populace that she was somehow deceitful, untruthful, or downright calculating, a factor which lead to her deep polarization amongst the American people and especially within the Democratic Party. So when the story broke it became an easy narrative for the media to push, and created further division amongst Democratic supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as further animosity from their Republican rivals.
The same rule now seems to be applying to Sarah Palin, who's rushed introduction lead to a lot of speculation amongst members of the media who felt that maybe perhaps there wasn't enough known about this politician and her rivals began combing every statement she ever made looking for contradiction, extremism, or anything that would lead to a sensational story.
Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later, the McCain campaign obviously didn't vet the candidate as well as they could've, or at least should've picked a better message for her to run on, but if Palin's blatant contradictions about being "for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it" gets more legs within the media, and becomes more of a driving narrative than a single story within a vast cycle, (becoming debate fodder) then the McCain campaign may need to play some serious defense and change their message dramatically.
Monday, September 8, 2008
Today's polls 9/8
I'm still not going to do an in-depth analysis of the polling until later this week, because I want to see if McCain's convention bounce is going to hold like Bill Clinton's did in 1992, or fade like Kerry's (and Gore's) did in 2004.
There are however, a plethora of new battleground state polls are out today, and the results seem to be pretty consistent with today's national polls.
Fox News/Rasmussen has a smattering of swing state polls showing Ohio +7 for McCain, Virginia +2 for McCain, Florida is showed as a literal tie with Pennsylvania +2 for Obama and Colorado +3 for Obama.
Besides Florida these numbers seem pretty consistent with McCain's post-convention bounce polling, especially Ohio, which as a bellweather state, seems to follow the national numbers moreso than the other states listed above. Florida is the only real anamoly here, as it has polled positively for McCain pretty consistently throughout the summer and has always seemed just out of reach for Obama whether for demographic reasons, or reasons of party ID. Perhaps Hillary's recent stumping there has actually paid off. I still don't see Florida as winnable for Obama, but it's the only state listed above where his numbers have actually improved.
Everytime a candidate that's leading loses his lead there is a huge gasping for new polling in the media so I think that this won't be the last day with a huge smashing of new polling.
Quinnipiac hasn't released new numbers in a while, nor has Survey USA, so I think over the next couple of days we're going to see fresh numbers from those firms, most likely in line with the numbers above. Continuing to energize Republicans and discourage Democrats.
But like I said earlier, before we can analyze whether McCain's post-convention bounce will be more or less static, we have to show some patience and wait till either the end of this week or the beginning of next week to see where the race actually stands until the debates.
There are however, a plethora of new battleground state polls are out today, and the results seem to be pretty consistent with today's national polls.
Fox News/Rasmussen has a smattering of swing state polls showing Ohio +7 for McCain, Virginia +2 for McCain, Florida is showed as a literal tie with Pennsylvania +2 for Obama and Colorado +3 for Obama.
Besides Florida these numbers seem pretty consistent with McCain's post-convention bounce polling, especially Ohio, which as a bellweather state, seems to follow the national numbers moreso than the other states listed above. Florida is the only real anamoly here, as it has polled positively for McCain pretty consistently throughout the summer and has always seemed just out of reach for Obama whether for demographic reasons, or reasons of party ID. Perhaps Hillary's recent stumping there has actually paid off. I still don't see Florida as winnable for Obama, but it's the only state listed above where his numbers have actually improved.
Everytime a candidate that's leading loses his lead there is a huge gasping for new polling in the media so I think that this won't be the last day with a huge smashing of new polling.
Quinnipiac hasn't released new numbers in a while, nor has Survey USA, so I think over the next couple of days we're going to see fresh numbers from those firms, most likely in line with the numbers above. Continuing to energize Republicans and discourage Democrats.
But like I said earlier, before we can analyze whether McCain's post-convention bounce will be more or less static, we have to show some patience and wait till either the end of this week or the beginning of next week to see where the race actually stands until the debates.
Sarah Palin takes a page from McCain's expertise on the economy
Sarah Palin may have already suffered her first major political gaffe after stating that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been costing taxpayers too much money.
If this slip up picks up traction in the media, this gaffe could accentuate McCain's admitted lack of understanding of economic issues and Palin's own readiness to be "a heart beat away from the presidency."**
**Note to self: file under the media's most beloved cliche phrases.
If this slip up picks up traction in the media, this gaffe could accentuate McCain's admitted lack of understanding of economic issues and Palin's own readiness to be "a heart beat away from the presidency."**
**Note to self: file under the media's most beloved cliche phrases.
Feminists fight over politics
According these two op-ed pieces, this election cycle has been the best of times and the worst of times for feminism.
To be fair though, I wouldn't exactly call Fox News contributor Tammy Bruce a feminist...
To be fair though, I wouldn't exactly call Fox News contributor Tammy Bruce a feminist...
Obama hits Palin directly in Michigan
Perhaps reacting to the most recent poll numbers, which are looking pretty dismal for him in reaction to John McCain's post convention bounce, Obama went hard after Gov. Palin today while stumping in Flint, MI today. This is what he said:
"Well, how about Gov. Palin? She's you know, an up and comer from Alaska. She - they're starting to run an ad now saying she opposed the bridge to nowhere. Well now, let's get the facts clear here. When she was mayor, she hired a Washington lobbyist to get earmarks - pork barrel spending - all the things that John McCain says is bad, she lobbied to get! And got a whole lot of it. When it came to the bridge to nowhere, she was for it until everybody started raising a fuss about it and she started running for governor and then suddenly she was against it!
You remember that? For it before you were against it? I mean you can't just make stuff up. You can't just recreate yourself. You can't just reinvent yourself. The American people aren't stupid."
Pretty harsh words, especially for Obama, who seems to be inserting a lot more passion into his daily attacks on the Republican ticket. Another thing to take away from this: generally the top of the ticket candidate doesn't go after the other candidate's VP, a sign that the Obama campaign does realize how much it really needs to dim Palin's star in order to stay off defense, and stay on message.
Especially since Palin has shown no hesitation in going after Obama just as harshly on the campaign trail herself.
"Well, how about Gov. Palin? She's you know, an up and comer from Alaska. She - they're starting to run an ad now saying she opposed the bridge to nowhere. Well now, let's get the facts clear here. When she was mayor, she hired a Washington lobbyist to get earmarks - pork barrel spending - all the things that John McCain says is bad, she lobbied to get! And got a whole lot of it. When it came to the bridge to nowhere, she was for it until everybody started raising a fuss about it and she started running for governor and then suddenly she was against it!
You remember that? For it before you were against it? I mean you can't just make stuff up. You can't just recreate yourself. You can't just reinvent yourself. The American people aren't stupid."
Pretty harsh words, especially for Obama, who seems to be inserting a lot more passion into his daily attacks on the Republican ticket. Another thing to take away from this: generally the top of the ticket candidate doesn't go after the other candidate's VP, a sign that the Obama campaign does realize how much it really needs to dim Palin's star in order to stay off defense, and stay on message.
Especially since Palin has shown no hesitation in going after Obama just as harshly on the campaign trail herself.
Let's not talk about the issues
Sarah Palin's introduction into the presidential election campaign seems to be a dream come true for the GOP. Instead of talking about the economy, the war, or energy, the campaign conversation is being turned on its head. Just like in 2004, and in many an election before it, we're talking about whose an elitist, who represents "small town America," who care more about "regular people." Maybe the media could bring up who looks the most vaguely french...
It will be interesting to see how the Obama campaign corrals the story they're telling back to John McCain and George Bush. The new kid in town has the spotlight and they have to respond to her, but time spent discussing Sarah Palin is time not spent discussing John McCain.
It will be interesting to see how the Obama campaign corrals the story they're telling back to John McCain and George Bush. The new kid in town has the spotlight and they have to respond to her, but time spent discussing Sarah Palin is time not spent discussing John McCain.
Gaffe Report
Politico rounds up this election's most damaging political gaffes by Obama and McCain in this article today. And in case there was any debate about what was actually said, they've got videos...
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Frank Rich On Sarah Palin
Frank Rich weighs in on Sarah Palin and calls out McCain in today's NYTimes op-ed piece.
McCain promises dems in his cabinet
In a show of bi-partisanship, McCain on "Face the nation" this morning said he would have more than just a "token democrat" in his administration, he also said he wanted some of the "smartest people in the country" to serve with him, saying that some of the people that he would choose, who were already wealthy, would be paid "a dollar a year."
McCain's convention (Palin) bounce
There has been very scant polling lately, I imagine there will be a flood of new polling next week that will largely drive the media narrative and I think both campaign's are gritting their teeth and praying those numbers will be good. If it starts looking bad for Obama, like some of last month's numbers, democratic leaders will start to worry and will release statements showing he's not doing this or that and the media will then begin reporting that there is "disunity" within the party and it would look bad for his carefully crafted campaign message.
Although McCain is +3 in the newest gallup daily tracking number (Rasmussen tied), reflecting a slight bounce out of his parties convention -- although probably not as big of a boost as his campaign would've liked -- whether he'll maintain that lead is a little up in the air at this point, especially since their hasn't been any recent state polling to look at. If the numbers stay where they are, then democrats are in trouble. Obama has to continue to hammer at McCain, and get back on the offensive and control the narrative. As we've seen all throughout the summer and the primary season, the Obama campaign doesn't play the best defense.
I'll probably do a much more thorough polling analysis later this week, when fresher numbers are in and we can compare state polling with national polling and start seeing where this race will really be at over the next couple months.
Although McCain is +3 in the newest gallup daily tracking number (Rasmussen tied), reflecting a slight bounce out of his parties convention -- although probably not as big of a boost as his campaign would've liked -- whether he'll maintain that lead is a little up in the air at this point, especially since their hasn't been any recent state polling to look at. If the numbers stay where they are, then democrats are in trouble. Obama has to continue to hammer at McCain, and get back on the offensive and control the narrative. As we've seen all throughout the summer and the primary season, the Obama campaign doesn't play the best defense.
I'll probably do a much more thorough polling analysis later this week, when fresher numbers are in and we can compare state polling with national polling and start seeing where this race will really be at over the next couple months.
Charlie Gibson nabs Palin interview
The McCain campaign finally realized the urgency of making sure that Palin doesn't seem to be dodging broadcast journalists, and as I posted earlier, is afraid that she'll be defined by skeptical journalists instead of her own words.
No word on when the interview will be, but it seems it will be later this week and will be live from Alaska.
Look for big ratings and huge media scrutiny over her every word.
No word on when the interview will be, but it seems it will be later this week and will be live from Alaska.
Look for big ratings and huge media scrutiny over her every word.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
McCain campaign will probably run out the clock on Sarah Palin media access
Politico has a good article up about the lack of serious media access to Palin.
Despite the fact that her face adorns the new issues of Time, Newsweek, The New Republic, The Weekly Standard, People, and US Weekly, not a single one of these publications was granted an exclusive, issues oriented interview for their story. Most of the articles used quotes from friends, or statements from the McCain campaign and what seems to have become standard Palin boilerplate about her biography and brief tenure as governor of Alaska.
Although this seems like a good strategy in theory, I don't doubt that the McCain campaign would just not give the national press their chance at the candidate, hoping to avoid gaffes or mistakes that could haunt McCain this close to the election. It's very dangerous to allow a national political figure to be defined by a skeptical press, however, and not by the candidates own words. A frustrated national press, kept at arms length, and blamed for everything from twisting facts to sexism, will likely not be very warm with their words.
Liberal blogger Jed Lewison take it a step further, posting the Sarah Palin no comment watchwhich gives a running real time chronicle of how long Palin has been the Republican vice presidential running mate and and will "keep the clock running until she sits down for her first serious issue interview broadcast on television."
Despite the fact that her face adorns the new issues of Time, Newsweek, The New Republic, The Weekly Standard, People, and US Weekly, not a single one of these publications was granted an exclusive, issues oriented interview for their story. Most of the articles used quotes from friends, or statements from the McCain campaign and what seems to have become standard Palin boilerplate about her biography and brief tenure as governor of Alaska.
Although this seems like a good strategy in theory, I don't doubt that the McCain campaign would just not give the national press their chance at the candidate, hoping to avoid gaffes or mistakes that could haunt McCain this close to the election. It's very dangerous to allow a national political figure to be defined by a skeptical press, however, and not by the candidates own words. A frustrated national press, kept at arms length, and blamed for everything from twisting facts to sexism, will likely not be very warm with their words.
Liberal blogger Jed Lewison take it a step further, posting the Sarah Palin no comment watchwhich gives a running real time chronicle of how long Palin has been the Republican vice presidential running mate and and will "keep the clock running until she sits down for her first serious issue interview broadcast on television."
Obama and McCain to visit World Trade Center memorial on 9/11 together
The two released a joint statement:
"On Thursday, we will put aside politics and come together to renew that unity, to honor the memory of each and every American who died, and to grieve with the families and friends who lost loved ones," said both senators in a statement. "We will also give thanks for the firefighters, police and emergency responders who set a heroic example of selfless service, and for the men and women who serve today in defense of the freedom and security that came under attack in New York City, at the Pentagon and in Shanksville, Pa."
The two candidates will also appear together that night in New York City for a televised forum on public service and civic engagement to be moderated by TIME editor Richard Stengel.
"On Thursday, we will put aside politics and come together to renew that unity, to honor the memory of each and every American who died, and to grieve with the families and friends who lost loved ones," said both senators in a statement. "We will also give thanks for the firefighters, police and emergency responders who set a heroic example of selfless service, and for the men and women who serve today in defense of the freedom and security that came under attack in New York City, at the Pentagon and in Shanksville, Pa."
The two candidates will also appear together that night in New York City for a televised forum on public service and civic engagement to be moderated by TIME editor Richard Stengel.
McCain beats Obama in speech ratings
38.9 million people watched McCain's speech on Thursday compared to the 38.4 million that watched Obama last week on Thursday, this probably got some high fives at McCain camp HQ. Sarah Palin had 37 million, though her speech was received better than McCain's by most media and GOP insiders.
It also goes to show that maybe there's more interest in the Republican Party these days than people think.
It also goes to show that maybe there's more interest in the Republican Party these days than people think.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Will Hillary step up?
Last night I posted that the Obama campaign will be unleashing his prominent team of female surrogtes to go after Palin in ways that the candidate himself can not. Hillary released a brief statement yesterday reiterating her "No way, no how. . ." lines from her convention speech.
Now Hillary Clinton has been a really good sport I'd say so far, she did the unity rally, she hit the road for Obama, and she gave a well-received speech last Tuesday at the convention.
If she can successfully squash Palin (soon) and allow her to be defined on Hillary's terms instead of McCain's, then Palin's star amongst undecideds, or conservative democrats may dim.
Now Hillary Clinton has been a really good sport I'd say so far, she did the unity rally, she hit the road for Obama, and she gave a well-received speech last Tuesday at the convention.
If she can successfully squash Palin (soon) and allow her to be defined on Hillary's terms instead of McCain's, then Palin's star amongst undecideds, or conservative democrats may dim.
DNC quitely releases final delegate totals for vote
Via Demconwatch
Totals:
Obama: 3188.5
Clinton: 1010.5
Goes to show why the DNC didn't make a big show of this, despite Hillary releasing her delegates, she still got over 1000 votes, which means more of her delegates voted for her, than those who went with the convention's message and voted for Obama.
Totals:
Obama: 3188.5
Clinton: 1010.5
Goes to show why the DNC didn't make a big show of this, despite Hillary releasing her delegates, she still got over 1000 votes, which means more of her delegates voted for her, than those who went with the convention's message and voted for Obama.
Sign of things to come?
The McCain-Palin rally in small town Wisconsin today was greeted with eager, enthusiastic fans and roadblocked cable coverage across all three major cable networks, Obama, who was in small town Pennsylvania holding an event of his own, was merely carried live on the networks' websites.
The major networks are savvy enough to realize who the ratings boon for them is probably going to be for the next town months, whether it helps the campaign or further polarizes voters is still to be seen.
The major networks are savvy enough to realize who the ratings boon for them is probably going to be for the next town months, whether it helps the campaign or further polarizes voters is still to be seen.
Heart not impressed
After McCain's speech last night, Republicans were thrilled then the loudspeakers blared the late 70's Classic Rock hit "Barracuda" by Heart, in honor of the new VP candidate and talk of the town, Sarah "Barracuda" Palin. Heart had this to say:
"Sarah Palin's views and values in NO WAY represent us as American women. We ask that our song 'Barracuda' no longer be used to promote her image. The song 'Barracuda' was written in the late 70s as a scathing rant against the soulless, corporate nature of the music business, particularly for women. (The 'barracuda' represented the business.) While Heart did not and would not authorize the use of their song at the RNC, there's irony in Republican strategists' choice to make use of it there."
Obama chose to end his speech with the song "Only In America," by country duo Brooks & Dunn, which was, ironically, George W. Bush's campaign song in 2004. However, Brooks & Dunn did not release a similar statement about Obama's use of their song.
"Sarah Palin's views and values in NO WAY represent us as American women. We ask that our song 'Barracuda' no longer be used to promote her image. The song 'Barracuda' was written in the late 70s as a scathing rant against the soulless, corporate nature of the music business, particularly for women. (The 'barracuda' represented the business.) While Heart did not and would not authorize the use of their song at the RNC, there's irony in Republican strategists' choice to make use of it there."
Obama chose to end his speech with the song "Only In America," by country duo Brooks & Dunn, which was, ironically, George W. Bush's campaign song in 2004. However, Brooks & Dunn did not release a similar statement about Obama's use of their song.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
McCain speech reaction
McCain REALLY needed to deliver tonight, and anyone familiar with his speaking style and past performances may have realized there was nothing really different tonight than anything he's ever really delivered.
He wandered a bit in his speech, never really hitting his stride, and never really hammering home one policy or agenda, and there were still several awkward pauses and facial expressions that his handlers may have winced at, but he was genuine McCain all night, and watching him speak tonight proves why he's still running at Obama's heels instead of being blown away.
Whether he'll get his own polling bounce after this weekend is still likely to be seen, a new CBS poll released tonight shows the race at a literal tie, while just last week Obama enjoyed a healthy 8 point lead in the same poll.
Welcome to the real general election people, starting tomorrow, the real bloodshed begins.
He wandered a bit in his speech, never really hitting his stride, and never really hammering home one policy or agenda, and there were still several awkward pauses and facial expressions that his handlers may have winced at, but he was genuine McCain all night, and watching him speak tonight proves why he's still running at Obama's heels instead of being blown away.
Whether he'll get his own polling bounce after this weekend is still likely to be seen, a new CBS poll released tonight shows the race at a literal tie, while just last week Obama enjoyed a healthy 8 point lead in the same poll.
Welcome to the real general election people, starting tomorrow, the real bloodshed begins.
Obama admits on O'Rielly that Iraq surge was effective
I believe the fallout from this will probably be minimal, since he still stayed with his original position that the surge has yet to bring "political reconciliation," but at the same time staying on message and declaring that his positions on Iraq are supported by both the Iraqi government and more recently the Bush Administration.
Still, it'll be fresh chum for an energized Republican base.
Still, it'll be fresh chum for an energized Republican base.
Feminists are no fan of Sarah Palin
Gloria Steinem writes a great op-ed piece today for the LA Times.
Sarah Palin's Speech
Last night Sarah Palin officially introduced herself to Americans as the GOP's vice-presidential nominee. As was already mentioned, her speech has been met with mixed reviews.
Personally, I thought she came off as too folksy and not sophisticated enough to potentially lead the country. If critics of John McCain have pronounced him too unserious, Sarah Palin only highlights this perceived flaw. Her shout out to her husband's snowmobile racing hobby, the hockey mom = pitbull in lipstick joke, and her anecdotes about the PTA were all too cringe-worthy for me.
Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton, she's a total lightweight. Hillary Clinton is a serious politician and would have never tried to cute it up for the American public. Joe Biden is going to cream Sarah Palin in the debates.
Watching this speech just kept me wondering over and over again, "Why didn't McCain choose Condoleezza Rice?"
This race is on!
Personally, I thought she came off as too folksy and not sophisticated enough to potentially lead the country. If critics of John McCain have pronounced him too unserious, Sarah Palin only highlights this perceived flaw. Her shout out to her husband's snowmobile racing hobby, the hockey mom = pitbull in lipstick joke, and her anecdotes about the PTA were all too cringe-worthy for me.
Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton, she's a total lightweight. Hillary Clinton is a serious politician and would have never tried to cute it up for the American public. Joe Biden is going to cream Sarah Palin in the debates.
Watching this speech just kept me wondering over and over again, "Why didn't McCain choose Condoleezza Rice?"
This race is on!
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Palin speech reception polarized along party lines
My analysis right now based on what I've seen and heard in regard to Palin's speech tonight is that if you're a Republican you thought it was great and if you're a Democrat you thought it was so-so. Although she isn't an extremely engaging speaker, and went a little long, (which allowed the attacks to become a little eye rolling after a while) I would say she did pretty good, and gave all of her critics little fodder to play with. ( Although anyone who uses a VP acceptance speech to criticize the media could use some work.)
Republican insiders and bloggers are drooling at the context and presentation of Palin's speech, which was biting and forceful, yet humble and resiliant. Republicans think it was nothing less than a knock out of the park, and are fired up over their little-known and embattled VP nominee.
Democrats, who probably found her boring after the fire and spunk shown in Denver last week, will say it was nothing more than a double that tried to get stretched into a triple.
Republican insiders and bloggers are drooling at the context and presentation of Palin's speech, which was biting and forceful, yet humble and resiliant. Republicans think it was nothing less than a knock out of the park, and are fired up over their little-known and embattled VP nominee.
Democrats, who probably found her boring after the fire and spunk shown in Denver last week, will say it was nothing more than a double that tried to get stretched into a triple.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
The case for Sarah Palin
The New Republic published a good article in defense of Sarah Palin. The argument is that Sarah Palin is really a political savant in eskimo-bumpkin disguise. Who knows at this point if this is the case, or if this argument will end up in the "Guiliani's non campaign IS actually a campaign strategy" file...
Republican National Convention vs Democratic National Convention
The media narrative going into the DNC was one of suspense and speculation as to whether the democrats could achieve "unity," what Hillary Clinton would do, What Bill Clinton would say, whether Joe Biden would say something stupid, and whether the party would successfully take on McCain. Whether Obama would deliver a thunderous acceptance speech I think was assumed by all (had he flopped it big time, the media narrative would've changed dramatically, and I think 38 million people would be dissappointed, and that is something that would've been pretty disastrous for democrats and for his campaign.)
The Democratic convention was seen by many is a rousing success, Hillary and Bill said all the right things and Joe Biden didn't gaffe it up, Obama gave a very well-received speech and raised the bar dramatically for John McCain who's public speaking has been panned even by many within his party.
Now the media narrative going into the RNC has put a party that already has to roll the boulder up hill this year, in an even worse spot. Although the Republican Party has performed very well and has shown poise and judgment scaling down their first day in the face of Hurricane Gustav and the swirling media frenzy around Sarah Palin's personal life and her family, McCain may have a mighty headwind to achieve what needs to be achieved by Thursday if he wants to win.
The democrats had a lot of energy, excitement, high ratings and positive media coverage during their convention and so far most of the senior media personaliries and journalists will probably not focus on the RNC until tomorrow as the hurricane recedes and the nation heaves a collective sigh of relief.
This gives them just two days to define Obama on their own terms while defending McCain and Palin, lay out their agenda and get the public interested in them again, proving a "generic democrat" is not what the country needs this year, even though this is what the public has said they want in countless polls over the summer.
The Republicans are also going to be facing a problem when it comes to the excitement and diversity of their speakers and party leaders. The party's young stars and popular statesman like Gov. Schwarzennegger and Gov. Jindal will not be attending the convention, nor will a number of it's leading senators and congressmen, that are currently facing hard campaigns.
Obama has received what could be considered a 3-6 point convention "bounce" in most of the latest polling and if McCain and the Republicans fail to limit that, or at least bring Obama's numbers down to where they were two weeks ago, he may have a problem on his hands.
The Democratic convention was seen by many is a rousing success, Hillary and Bill said all the right things and Joe Biden didn't gaffe it up, Obama gave a very well-received speech and raised the bar dramatically for John McCain who's public speaking has been panned even by many within his party.
Now the media narrative going into the RNC has put a party that already has to roll the boulder up hill this year, in an even worse spot. Although the Republican Party has performed very well and has shown poise and judgment scaling down their first day in the face of Hurricane Gustav and the swirling media frenzy around Sarah Palin's personal life and her family, McCain may have a mighty headwind to achieve what needs to be achieved by Thursday if he wants to win.
The democrats had a lot of energy, excitement, high ratings and positive media coverage during their convention and so far most of the senior media personaliries and journalists will probably not focus on the RNC until tomorrow as the hurricane recedes and the nation heaves a collective sigh of relief.
This gives them just two days to define Obama on their own terms while defending McCain and Palin, lay out their agenda and get the public interested in them again, proving a "generic democrat" is not what the country needs this year, even though this is what the public has said they want in countless polls over the summer.
The Republicans are also going to be facing a problem when it comes to the excitement and diversity of their speakers and party leaders. The party's young stars and popular statesman like Gov. Schwarzennegger and Gov. Jindal will not be attending the convention, nor will a number of it's leading senators and congressmen, that are currently facing hard campaigns.
Obama has received what could be considered a 3-6 point convention "bounce" in most of the latest polling and if McCain and the Republicans fail to limit that, or at least bring Obama's numbers down to where they were two weeks ago, he may have a problem on his hands.
Obama camp snapping it's fingers and saying "rats"
Bush will give a BRIEF statement from the White House today addressing the Republican National Convention, I'm sure the Obama campaign was hoping for lot's of good soundbites with Bush praising McCain that they could use in their future ads.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Labor Day Weekend Round-Up
The GOP Convention started today with the announcement that no political speeches would be made because of Hurricane Gustav. Laura Bush and Cindy McCain pulled out the first lady schtick and urged attendees to donate what time and money they could to help those affected by the hurricane. Barack Obama also refrained from making any political statements today due to the hurricane.
So the big news of the weekend is that Sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter Bristol is five months pregnant. The McCain campaign claims that they knew of the pregnancy before Palin was selected for VP but the news was no less than a surprise to the american public. It will be interesting to see how the media treats the story in the next few days. Media reports and the blogosphere has been abuzz with harsh criticism of Palin since her nomination, this teen pregnancy story could be more fuel for the fire.
So the big news of the weekend is that Sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter Bristol is five months pregnant. The McCain campaign claims that they knew of the pregnancy before Palin was selected for VP but the news was no less than a surprise to the american public. It will be interesting to see how the media treats the story in the next few days. Media reports and the blogosphere has been abuzz with harsh criticism of Palin since her nomination, this teen pregnancy story could be more fuel for the fire.
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