2008 in review. . . the year of the 'card'

There was a lot of political groundbreaking this year, first it was Obama's Iowa caucus victory that started out the year and was the first time an African American had won a majority white state in a primary campaign, then it was Hillary Clinton's candidacy and their bitter primary battle where she received more primary votes than any other woman candidate in history. There was also Sarah Palin, the second woman nominated as the running mate of a major party, and a first for the Republican Party. Obama's nomination by the Democratic Party and his subsequent general election victory were also huge accomplishments this year, but there was also a lot of political gears that kept moving as though none of these historic accomplishments took place.
One of the more fascinating facets of this was the '-card' politics that were played ceaselessly by all of the campaigns throughout both the primaries and general elections.
Because of all of the historic accomplishments of this years election, it would be nearly impossible to see a campaign where '-card' politics wasn't played. Early in the campaigns it was the gender-card vs. the race-card with Both Clinton and Obama running a tight and bitter battle. Later in the election it was the gender-card vs. the race-card in the general election battle after Palin was selected by McCain.
With one day before 2009 '-card' politics is continuing to be played in the continuing, and somewhat embarrassing battle over the senate seat in Illinois that Obama will vacate next month.
Governor Blagojevich, in a move that's winning him no friends, and despite criticism from his own state legislature as well as prominent national politicians, has nominated former Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris to the seat despite Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid saying that any seat nominated by Blago would not be seated when the senate re-convenes next week.
The move was shrewd politics by Blago, (however disgraceful) as Burris is an African-American, and is a respected leader, by nominating an African-American, Blago dared congress not to seat him and blatantly brought '-card' politics to the front stage, enlisting Bobby Rush, another African-American congressman from Chicago, to spout ridiculous talking points comparing Senate Democrats to George Wallace and using words like "lynch" when describing the media's criticism of Blagojevich.
Nominating Burris puts Senate Democrats (as well as the Obama transition team) on the defensive and continues to drag down their national party and stay as a smear on the image of the party that is about to assume almost ultimate control of the Federal Government. And Balgojevich is shamelessly playing the race card with all of his full muster.
Seeing who will budge first on this will be the interesting story of next week, but it seems that 2009 will ring in plagued by the same race-baiting politics that left many of the firsts and historical accomplishments of 2008 slightly tarnished.

McConnell dissents

I was hoping that Republicans would end the Obama-post-election-honeymoon-daydream, but only because I like keeping my blog chock full of drama and intrigue, which may be bad for a country in deep crisis that needs to become more bipartisan and cooperative, but is good for a political junkie like me that likes a good scoop.
Mitch McConnell, fresh from near-defeat in the most expensive Senate race in Kentucky history, said today that he will be urging fellow Republican senators to challenge Obama's and Democrat's plans for a massive economic stimulus bill that Obama wants on his desk on January 20th.
The bill has been called by many the most ambitous federal spending bill since the great depression and promises over $700 billion in aid to national infrastructure, state governments, and relief for working class families squeezed by the expanding recession.
This will be a chance for Republicans to dig their heels in early on and tarnish Obama's pledges to bring the country into a more cooperative spirit, and breakdown some of the gridlock that has plagued congress for many years. Some may see it as a last desperate stand by a party facing internal disunity, a dismal public perception and severe branding issues. Some others however, may see it as the foundation of building a new image for 2010, and a return to more classical conservative values of smaller government and tempered federal spending.
However, the majority of the population thinks the government needs to somehow involve itself personally into helping the ailing economy and there is broad, however cautious, support for Obama's ambitious plan.
McConnell is one a slippery slope here, especially after the Republican Party helped Bush and Henry Paulson pass thir equally massive $700 Billion Bailout in September. So not to sound like a complete sellout, and to seem like the GOP has some sort of spine, he seems intent on blocking what will be Obama's first bill as president.
Obama has the Democratic votes to ram the bill through Congress, but gaining support from leading Republicans would go a long way to build Obama some political capital and would also keep him from being demonized in the op-eds come next Spring.

Obama wishes you a Merry Christmas

God bless you, City Market of Seattle

Obama and the Progressive Left

I predicted last week while discussing Obama's first round of cabinet appointments that Obama would receive more heavy criticism from the left wing of his party then he would from the right, in fact a recent survey shows that as much as 57% of Republicans are content with Obama's cabinet picks, and while 85% of Democrats in the same survey said they were content, the media seems to focus on that remaing 15%, although this is understandable because this is also the most vocal, as well as liberal, wing of the Democratic Party.
As recently as this year, especially earlier this year, in the Democratic Primaries, Obama was the darling of the progressive left, his early caucus victories (and ultimately the nomination) as well as his early fundraising numbers and grassroots volunteerism were fueled by liberal activism within the party and some can argue that he is president by and large because of this fervent support.
The progressive blog Daily Kos hailed Obama as it's "patron saint" in 2004 after his keynote address at the Democratic Convention and his subsequent Senate election, and other liberal blogs such as the Huffington Post adamantly defended him throughout the primaries -- although it was a Huffington Post reporter that broke the 'cling to guns' bombshell -- and pushed his campaign's agenda. So what went wrong? Where's the love?
Obama's relationship with the progressive left has always been symbiotic in nature, but also very cautious. He's been careful not to be seen as too close to this wing of his party so as to continue to be known as inclusive to differing opinions and more politically moderate.
For most people that have followed the elections, as well as his career closely he has never projected an air of doctrinaire liberalism, and throughout the general election he took very centrist positions on most issues, especially in the arena of national security.
Throughout the campaign Obama made distinct promises to include conservatives and Republicans "at the table" and do what he could to reach out to those that disagreed with him, and has since formed most of his transition on this very issue, bringing leading liberals, moderates, and two Republicans into his cabinet and into his administration, including current Defense Secretary Robert Gates, as well as 4 of his former Presidential rivals including: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, and Tom Vilsack. So it should come as no surprise, especially to the liberal blogosphere that has followed his rise in politics so closely, when he continues to follow this trend.
It's also one thing to note that it's never too soon to be thinking about 2012, and although Rick Warren is a polarizing figure in America, he's also very popular and respected amongst religious conservatives, a group that generally rejected Obama in the election. He's especially popular amongst those that no longer adhere to the more ultra-conservative and controversial dogmas of Pastors Falwell and Hagee.
Rick Warren's rise and background is also similar to Obama's, and Warren received intense criticism from some of his church for allowing Obama to speak at an AIDS awareness rally at Warren's church in 2006 due to Obama's stance on abortion. So I imagine amongst the two of them, both cautious coalition builders, there is a sense of shared purpose, if not shared opinion. (Warren also defended Jeremiah Wright calling him a "good pastor" at one point.)
One last point to be made is that if Obama lurched the country in a more left-ward direction, as maybe his predecessor did in his early administration with a more right-ward tilt, it would cause not only a logjam in congress, but also infighting amongst his own party which could prove disastrous politically for not only his legacy as president, but also for the midterm elections of 2010 and his own re-election in 2012. Something I don't think even the most brazen liberal would support.

Obama responds to criticism over Rick Warren

read his statement here.

Who will be elected the head of the RNC?

Taking a bit of break from transition/inauguration/Caroline Kennedy blogging, one of the elections that's yet to happen, the election amongst top Republicans for who is going to chair the RNC, is going to be a very important first step for how the Republicans will get "out of the wilderness" after two straight congressional electoral thrashings, an American Public that has largely rejected (and partially blamed) conservative ideology in the face of an overwhelming economic crisis, and a lost Presidential Election for only the 4th time in 40 years, the next chairperson of the Republican National Committee will have almost as much work to do as the incoming President's administration.
Not only will the next chairperson have to reorganize almost every single state's offices and field staff, and effectively communicate strategy to the party's grassroots and their conservative base. They will also have to work out a party platform over the next two years that will put them back into favor with the public and challenge a Federal Government that is almost solely in the control of their rivals.
It may also be even more of a challenge since the DNC will now mostly be in control of Obama's massive, coveted email list, and have access to his unprecedented and equally massive volume of volunteers and staffers.
But just like how the majority of the 2008 Presidential election had more to do with Obama's successes and failures than it did McCain's, the 2010 midterm elections will have more to do with the successes and failures of Obama's performance as President -- as well as the performance of a so far ineffectual Democratic controlled congress -- than it will on how well the RNC crafts it's platform and mobilizes it's base over the next two years.
In 2004, the DNC responded to two consecutive (albeit close) presidential losses by moving to the left with the appointment of former Vermont governor and former presidential candidate Howard Dean as it's chairman, who crafted a '50 state strategy' that focused more on equal representation in more conservative states at every ballot level and helped set the stage for a better return for the Democrats nationwide in both '06 and '08.
It would probably be wise for the Republicans to follow a similar strategy, seeing as how Obama won 11 states in the most recent election that Bush carried easily in 2004. Drafting a more center of right or even moderate plank focused on classic GOP values such as tight fiscal accountability and government regulation in the face of a vast increase in Federal spending, as well as a more compelling energy argument than "drill, baby, drill" might be the ticket to a Republican surge in the next two nationwide elections. Especially after two straight elections where the RNC tried to focus on wedge issues such as gay marriage, abortion, and gun control had little effect on their fortunes.
A good read on the details all six of the candidates for next months RNC chair election can be found here (it's worth the click!)

Who did you think he was going to pick, Jeremiah Wright?

It seems that Obama outrages somesort of left-leaning group pretty much every day now...

Today Obama upset gay activists after announcing that pastor Rick Warren of Saddleback Church in California would give the invocation at the incoming president's inauguration.

Time's Person Of The year

Big shocker: It's Obama (Remember last year when Time got all that flack for making Vladimir Putin their person of the year?)
Senior Time editor Rick Stengel called him The "quintessential" person of the year.

More fascinating then the article and cover, which I'm pretty sure everyone saw coming, is a collection of 12 candid photos of Obama from when he was a Freshman at Occidental College in Los Angeles. The pictures are very candid (I swear picture 4 is of him smoking a joint)
Check it out here

Kennedy 2016

Ben Smith has a tasty thought to start the day:

To get ahead of ourselves a little bit:

If Caroline Kennedy is appointed to the Senate and wins reelection, and Barack Obama serves two successful terms, Senator Kennedy from New York, into her second term after two high-profile campaigns, having amazed the pundits with her ability to step on and off charter jets in Rochester and be friendly to members of the City Council, will be an automatic top-tier candidate for president.

The Kennedy-Clinton primary will be a thing to watch.

You heard it here first.

Pelosi to put her foot down

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a Politico article published to day says that she is committed to not let Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff, and Obama himself dictate policy to rank and file Democrats in The House.
From the article:

"In talks with Emanuel and others, sources say, Pelosi has “set parameters” for what she wants from Barack Obama and his White House staff — no surprises, and no backdoor efforts to go around her and other Democratic leaders by cutting deals with moderate New Democrats or conservative Blue Dogs.

Specifically, Pelosi has told Emanuel that she wants to know when representatives of the incoming administration have any contact with her rank-and-file Democrats — and why, sources say."

This is a good thing obviously, as congress is not meant to be a legislative body that just rolls over for the executive branch at every turn, especially for one that shares party affiliations, however, Pelosi remains very unpopular to the majority of Americans and has been accused by many of not standing up to the Bush administration enough on many issues from The Iraq War, to the FISA warantless wiretapping and retroactive immunity bill passed over the summer. It would almost seem silly that she wouldn't seem friendlier to a Democratic White House.
Her unpopularity could continue though if Obama, who's legislative agenda is currently in step with mainstream American opinion and who holds much higher approval ratings then Pelosi, could be seen as having his plans blocked in a power struggle with congress.
Pundits have also said that having Emanuel as his chief of staff was a decision that was made largely due to his negotiating skills on the hill as well as his close ties to both Republican and Democratic lawmakers.
Unclogging congress was one of the premier issues of the '08 campaign, and Obama's first year in office will probably be most largely defined by how well he can maneuver and negotiate with both The House and Senate, as many of the projects he needs approved immediately will be both grand and sweeping in the scope of addressing the nations multiple current crises.

Fun with Google

One of the story's thats gone largely unreported by the media is the transition teams open for questions site on the transitions website change.gov that encourages ordinary Americans to submit questions that'll be voted on by readers and answered by the transition team.
Any of these answers could be found by a simple google search, but show that the transition, and most likely Obama's white house, will continue this same kind of open online forum, and will vastly expand online access to the administration.
From the site:

Q: "Will you consider legalizing marijuana so that the government can regulate it, tax it, put age limits on it, and create millions of new jobs and create a billion dollar industry right here in the U.S.?" S. Man, Denton

A: President-elect Obama is not in favor of the legalization of marijuana.

Rats.

Colorado Senator Ken Salazar to head Interior

It seems that Ken Salazar, the long incumbent Senior Senator from Colorado, will be tapped to be the new Secretary Of The Interior, a token post that administration's give to people from places like Colorado, which usually get's very little love when it comes to high cabinet appointments.
Salazar is a moderate, respected Democrat and is pretty much a shoe-in for the job. However his appointment does create yet another vacant senate seat in a Democratic State.
Bill Ritter, the governor of Colorado is probably not happy that he is forced into this role, given the national headlines over both Rod Blagojevich and Caroline Kennedy/Hillary Clinton. He can still, at least, be somewhat relieved that there will be much less media scrutiny over this decision since the Department Of The Interior isn't by any means a powerful job in the administration, and Colorado politics, unlike New York or Chicago are neither notorious or infamous, nor is Bill Ritter currently involved in any federal investigations or scandals. My guess is he'd probably like to keep it that way, and will probably appoint the safest pick ever, even if it means someone that may not be able to win in 2010, but will keep anyone from the media, or the National and State Republican parties from out of his hair.
UPDATE: Here's a good companion article on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's difficulties facing many senate obstacles with so many seats up in the air.

Does Caroline Kennedy deserve the NY Senate Seat?

As Caroline Kennedy and her uncle Ted Kennedy continue to lobby for her to replace Hillary Clinton in the senate, questions are arising over whether she deserves it, and more importantly, is she qualified? Though many Americans who are part of the boomer generation and older may be moved to see the last of the Kennedys get in to politics, I don't think the "family business" explanation is necessarily a good approach, especially since she isn't being voted in.

After an increase in scrutiny over political back scratching post-Rod-Blagojevich-scandal, I wonder if every day Americans will still agree that Caroline Kennedy deserves a place in American politics simply because she's a Kennedy? I like Caroline Kennedy, but I am left thinking this looks an awful lot like another powerful political family throwing their weight around to get their relatives an unearned appointment (take note, Beau Biden).

Cairo? Or Jakarta?

We speculated last week that Obama would probably give a major foreign policy speech from an Islamic nation's capitol within the first 100 days of his administration, we also speculated that the location of that speech would be Cairo, Egypt.
Michael Fullilove makes the case that the speech should take place in Indonesia, another very populous muslim nation and a place that Obama actually lived as a child.
He writes: "Choosing Indonesia would throw light on the diversity and richness of Islam, which is not, contrary to lingering perceptions, practiced solely by Arabs or only in the Middle East. The country, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, does a reasonable job of managing its considerable religious heterogeneity. Going there would help Mr. Obama to reframe the debate in the West about Islam and terrorism."
Although Obama and Bush have very different views on how to deal with the problem of global terror and Islamic extremists, hopefully he at least has similar reflexes

Sweet Caroline

The New York Times says Caroline Kennedy is going to make her case to New York Governor David Paterson that she should be given the senate seat that will be vacated by Hillary Clinton in January.
No word on what Paterson's camp has said as he was unavailable for comment, according to the article.
Kennedy is clearly the front runner, at least in the media world, for this seat, so Fran Drescher has a lot of lobbying to do if she wants to be picked instead.

Obama to report Blago conversations next week

At the request of the US attorney's office, and according to a Politico article the Obama transition team will release all information regarding conversations with Most Recently Disgraced Politician and late night joke fodder Rod Blagojevich.
Last Thursday Obama said that he would make the information available "within the next few days," but according to spokesman Dan Pfeiffer, the campaign has now deferred to next week "in order not to impede [the US Attorney's office] investigation of the governor."
This deferrment will only continue to keep the story alive, will worry Democrats that the transition team will be forced off message to continue answering pressing questions from both the media and the RNC, and will give the embattled Republicans further openings to try and tarnish Obama before his inauguration, now 35 days away.

Dissecting Detroit

Bill Kristol of the NYTimes wrote an intriguing op-ed piece today about disdain for the American auto industry on both the right and the left.

Kristol argues that political elites on both the right and the left seem to look down their noses at the auto industry because it is made up of largely blue collar workers. The right roots their disdain in the industry's contracts with the U.A.W., the left apparently can't get over the Big 3's environmental shortcomings.

There is no doubt a sense of contempt for the auto industry coming from all sides. I wonder though, is this disdain justified? What Bill Kristol doesn't mention in his piece is that the majority of regular, every day Americans also don't think the auto industry deserves a bail-out.

There is no doubt a longstanding and complicated tension between the upper crust of America and the working class. But could it be that the auto industry is no longer respected because they just missed the boat on so many levels? Does an industry that refused to innovate and stayed on the dock all these years really deserve a life preserver now that the dock is collapsing?

PS: It would be interesting to look back at history and see how the media was reporting the airline industry collapse of the 1970s...

Your morning Blago

Yesterday at a press conference Obama said he was "absolutely certain" that none of his aides had been involved with deal making for his open seat.
His top aide David Axelrod walked back on comments that they had "spoken" last month.
This is a sticky moment for Obama, right now it seems the majority of the public are giving Obama the benefit of the doubt here, but it put's his transition team in an awkward place and Obama's hesitation to tackle the issue head on turned a one day story into a story that consumed much of the week, and likely next week as well, especially as a hungry media ready for news to fill the vacuous void left after the election is scrambling to be the first with new updates on the scandal.
The Washington Post gives Obama some relief here with an article detailing Obama's arm's length relationship with the embattled governor.
Politico also has a smart read about Obama's team being in damage control mode.

Liberals shown some love with new cabinet announcements

As has been discussed earlier in some of my blog postings it seems that the majority of Obama's criticism on the picks for his administration have come from the left-wing of his own party as opposed to traditional opposition from conservatives and Republicans.
However the liberal blogosphere was alive with the sound of music yesterday and today as two favorites of the left were announced to have key positions in the administration.
First would be former Senator Tom Daschle, who has already been leaked as the new Secretary of Health and Human Services. As a senator he was seen as a moderate but has since been leaning more left since his ousting in 2004, especially in the arena of health care reform, which he has become much more passionate about in recent years, co-authoring a book called "Critical" which came out earlier this year and that made a loud plea for health care reform and outlined ambitious plans for sweeping changes in the health care/pharmaceutical industry. Daschle, in addition to his job in the cabinet will head up the newly created "White House Office of Health Reform," a key indicator that Obama is serious about health care reform and his appointment of Daschle means it will be a top priority in his white house, probably more so than anybody on the right or left expected.
The second liberal darling that was leaked yesterday is Carol M. Browner, who will be brought into the white house as "energy czar." She is the former head of the EPA under President Clinton and takes a very aggressive posture on both climate change and alternative fuels, and is very popular with the left.
Obama is a careful calculator and knows he's going to need a lot of help on the left to enact a lot of his major plans, and these appointments are going a long way to building a coalition that can do that.

Move over Caroline, "The Nanny" wants a shot at HRC's senate seat...

Seriously, Fran Drescher?

Obama calls on Blagojevich to resign

The AP breaks the story, I think we all saw it coming, this was Obama's only option at this point. He also urges the Illinois senate to vote on having a special election to fill the seat.
This is a big gamble for Obama, as there is a decent chance the seat could be picked up by a Republican in a special election, as the state is weary of Democratic machine politics and embattled administrations.
It could also be a chance for Obama to burnish some real reformer cred and endorse an unknown or a reform candidate for the seat.

Senator Kennedy?

What will Blagojevich's arrest do to David Paterson, the other governor who needs to fill a vacant senate seat? This one for New York, which will be vacated by Hillary Clinton when she takes over as the Secretary of State.
He needs to take extra pains to ensure that it doesn't look like he received anything in return for the seat, or fell under anyone's influence.
It has been said that Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) has been privately lobbying for his niece Caroline Kennedy to fill the seat, however since this has been widely known to the press, Paterson may be under pressure to instead install a more outside figure so as to appear unbiased by the powerful family name and legacy.

Obama and Blago cont.

As the story wears on and gains traction, the press is going to do demand to know every single detail as to Obama's relationship with Blagojevich, much as it has done with other shadowy Chicago figures such as Tony Rezko and Bill Ayers.
Coming from Chicago is both a plus and a minus for Obama as he has said that he was "toughened up" by the rough and tumble of urban politics, but also has to deal with the legacy of a city and state famously rampant with corruption, machine-politics, back-scratching, and deal-making.
Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin from Politico release the first seminal article here. It's definitely worth the click and basically shows just how much the wind has been taken out of the Obama transition's sails. (Do you think Obama will still have those daily press conferences?)
Also from Ben Smith's blog:

"The reality of Obama's relationship with the Chicago Democratic machine is more nuanced, and has been widely explored. He certainly isn't a creature of the machine, wasn't born into it like Daley or married into it like Blagojevich. He came up in the reformist enclave of Hyde Park, but -- as is often the case with a strong machine and talented outsiders -- after he emerged, the organization's leaders saw his promise, and gave him some leeway, and he didn't mount a crusade against their transactional political system. To have refused, for instance, to support Blagojevich in 2006 would have been a major reformist statement; Obama didn't make it, and instead backed the incumbent governor. Obama's tighest inner circle -- Jarrett, Emanuel, Axelrod, Bill Daley -- is composed of people at least one degree closer in, and who each made millions in part off their various connections.

Perhaps the best way to see him is as a neutral in the (lopsided) battle between machine and reformers in Illinois. That's the stance he took in a defining battle, the 2006 contest for the presidency of the Cook County Board of Commissioners. Reformers fault him for failing to support their champion; but he didn't endorse the machine favorite either. He stayed on the sidelines, and kept his focus on the White House. You can accuse him of cowardice for that, or you can grant him that he had decided to devote himself to larger causes and ambitions than Illinois political reform."

Blago on Obama: "Fuck Him!"

Well something that might put a wrench in Republican plans to try and tie Obama to the scandal facing ol' "Pay-Rod" (Thank you Chicago-Sun Times) is a tape released by the Justice Department detailing a tirade Blago goes on when the Obama transition doesn't want to "play ball," in regards to Obama's senate seat.
Blagojevich (about Obama): "He doesn't want to pay? Fuck him!"
Blago also calls Obama a "motherfucker" throughout the tirade.
Classy guy.

Happy Birthday Blago!

So apparently it's Rod Blagojevich's birthday today, whoops.
He's now the most recently disgraced politician, which gives Eliot Spitzer some time to maybe start speaking at universities and maybe appearing as a CNN analyst or something.
On another interesting note, and some silver lining for an embattled Republican party, the two largest Democratic states, New York and Illinois, are now being run by Lt. Governors. Signling what could be a major campaign issue for the GOP in 2010, employing the same tactics democrats used in 2006 to frame the other party as corrupt and unable to be trusted.
Also, one thing to look out for, will Republicans try and push an Obama-Blagojevich connection? And if so, how loudly will they do it and how far will they go?

Where are the jobs for women?

The NYTimes published an interesting op-ed piece asking this very question of Barack Obama's plan to create new jobs with projects to upgrade the nation's infrastructure. The vast majority of these new "green jobs" will be in the fields of construction and engineering, which are largely dominated by men.

So what's a girl to do? The piece mentions that efforts to attract women to these fields have been largely unsuccessful. This article raising a number of interesting questions, mainly, is it fair to say that there are "women's professions" and "men's professions?" Should the government be responsible for approaching job creation from this sexist view and try to create jobs in "male" and "female" professions equally? In my opinion, the answer is no. But should the government consider spreading out opportunities and implement a range of plans to generate new jobs that will effect a broader range of the job market? Absolutely, but that's not just to benefit women, it's to benefit every worker who doesn't own a hard hat or a drafting table.

Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich arrested

Wow, what a dumbass

Frank Rick dissents

Liberal columnist Frank Rich, a longtime cheerleader for Obama both during the primaries and in the general election becomes one of the first writers to openly criticize the potential pitfalls of Obama's new cabinet appointments could possibly have.
He discusses a book written by David Halberstam about the Kennedy administration called "Best and Brightest," a title that was meant to be taken as ironic and details how Kennedy's picks, which were highly praised by the press at the time, would lead both Kennedy and his predecessor, Lyndon Johnson, into a disastrous and prolonged conflict in Vietnam.
The article is definitely worth the read and shows how a "valedictorocracy" a term coinced by Rich's colleague David Brooks in an article we linked to earlier, could have a possibility for danger down the road.
It also shows that Obama's biggest criticisms in the future may come more from the left wing than the right.

Bill Ayers writes an op-ed in the NYTimes

Read it here.

According to him, he's not such a bad guy after all... but why would anyone trust what a domestic terrorist has to say?

L vs J on education, part trois

I don't see Obama's election time support from teacher's unions as a major incentive for Obama to pick a Secretary of Education with conventional views. Particularly in light of what is happening in the auto industry, I see the power of big unions further falling out of favor with the American public. Mind you, a majority of the people in Detroit no less, support allowing the Big Three to fail. If anyone other than David Brooks cares about Obama's pick for Secretary of Education, will the same argument be made that going against the teacher's unions for the good of our children is the same as forcing the auto unions to make concessions for the good of our economy?

Obama and education cont.

Some of the pundits (including David Brooks, as linked below in Laura'a post) are speculating that whoever Obama picks for Secretary Of Education will show whether he's truly dedicated to education reform, or whether he will allow the teacher's unions -- which unanimously supported him during the general election -- to have more of a say in how to govern education reform in America.
Obama is under tremendous pressure from many of the big unions that gave his campaign millions of dollars for mailers and get out the vote activites and organized it's members, to show an acknowledgement to that support with high government appointments in his administration.
So far, nearly all of Obama's choices for the posts within his administration have been safe picks, intellectuals, Democratic Party heavyweights, moderates and pragmatists. Education may simply be no different.
Certainly s safe, union driven pick won't generate any huge amount of bad press, (David Brooks may be a little mad though) but it won't cause his white house very much grief and could keep a core and powerful constituency happy.
Secretary of Education is generally seen as a low post on the totem pole of cabinet picks, and most individuals in this role have wielded little true power over the direction of the education system in America, mostly due to polarizing fights in both congress and more locally on the right direction of education in America.
Obama had pledged throughout the campaign that he wanted American schools to be "competitive" with other schools throughout the world, and pledged to make the American education system "first class." However, Obama has backed off on what he calls "heated campaign rhetoric" before and this may be an opportunity for him to make another safe pick, keep a constituency happy, and focus more on the big picture of the crumbling American economy.
However, Obama has proven to be unpredictible before, and appointing a known reformer with more left-leaning credentials could show the country that he is focused on making education reform in America a top issue, and would also be keeping to a campaign theme that special interests would not control his white house.

Obama and Education

David Brooks wrote an interesting op-ed piece today on how Obama's choice for Secretary of Education will force Obama to pick a side on the education debate. Throughout the campaign he seemed to have one foot in the reform camp (pro-charter schools, merit pay for teachers, etc) and one foot in the old guard camp (teacher's unions, smaller class sizes, increasing funding for current programs).

There is currently a consensus that our nation's education system isn't working. The old guard will say that their ideas would work if they just had more money while reformers will say that we've got to make big changes to the current system. My bet is that Obama's heart is really on more of the reformer side, especially since there has been success with charter schools and other alternatives in his home state of Illinois. I think spent some time siding with teacher's unions during the election only because they supported him, but now that he's been elected their loyalty to him won't buy them much sway.

Obama speaking in Cairo cont...

The announcement today that Barack Obama wants to give a major foreign policy speech from a major muslim capitol is big news. If Obama reaches out to Muslims I think it will take some of the wind out of the sails of Muslim extremist groups (after all, Al Qaida did say that a win for John McCain would help them with recruiting). Having lived in the Muslim nation of Indonesia during his childhood, I think Obama is perfectly suited for the job of calling out to the Muslim world and saying that there are some things that East and West can both agree on, the same way he evoked a spirit of common values between Democrats and Republicans during the election.

Bring back the beard Bill Richardson!

Seriously though, I would really be happy if we returned to an age of American politics where facial hair wasn't a disqualification for the highest office in the land, and was in fact encouraged.
All it takes is one prominent politician that rocks the beard with no shame, and looks good while doing it and those days will be back and better than ever!

Obama to speak in Cairo?

The NY Times has speculated that Obama will be possibly making a historic speech in an "unnamed Islamic capital," most likely Cairo, Egypt within the first 100 days of his administration.
This would be a bold move, and possibly the first time since 9/11 that a major western leader has made such strides to try and address the rift between the western world, and that of muslim-majority nations.
Security would be massive, no matter what, and what if he fails? It would be a pretty big smear on Obama if within the first 100 days of his administration he delivers a huge speech with a completely worldwide audience -- targeted at people with whom the US has somewhat chilly relations -- and falls flat on his face.
It would have the possibility of being a Reaganesque move towards reconciliation, or a Bushian move towards deeper hostility.

Chris Matthews for senate?

Oh God.
here we go.
You can read about it here
It would be like Al Franken times 10, and we saw how well he's doing right now.
Arlen Specter, the current seat holder, a Republican, is pretty popular in Pennsylvania, and who knows what climate the Democrats will be facing in 2010?
At least he won't be jamming up cable TV anymore.

GOP leadership continue Obama honeymoon

Well the inauguration is still 47 days away, but exactly one month after November's election, the GOP leadership doesn't have enough nice things to say about the way Obama is handling the transition, or about most of the appointments he's made to his cabinet.
Jonathan Martin, the prolific conservative writer for Politico, now blogless has a great read on this new development from within the echelons of senior Republican leadership. These Republicans definitely got the memo that bipartisanship is in, and people that spent days on-message throughout the campaign hurling line after line of opposition against Obama and The Democratic Party, pretty much calling him a socialist, a terrorist sympathizer, and a spineless line cutter are now trying to rebrand themselves in the spirit of a post election kumbaya.
The clock is ticking though, on if and when, the cease fire is called off and both sides return to the trenches.

The economy sucks

3,400 Washington Mutual employees were told they would be losing their jobs today in Seattle. It's a pretty scary time across the country and right here in my own backyard. In spite of these tough times, people seem to be optimistic about the future of the country - or at least I am.

The day after the election I was talking to a friend who had been heavily involved in the Obama campaign. She said after Obama won that she couldn't wait to do more. She wanted to be asked to do something more for her community and her country right away. When she first said this, I have to admit I didn't totally get what she was saying. But now I think I kinda do.

The Obama campaign did an incredible job mobilizing people across the country during the election season, but I hope that he will ask Americans to do even more and I hope that he will call upon us as a nation soon. I know the president-elect is busy planning his transition, but I just feel a little left out. I drank to kool-aid, got all riled up about getting involved, and now I have nothing to do.

So, President Obama, if you're reading this, please give me a job that doesn't involve getting spammed with email messages asking for donations for your transition planning..

I'm here and I'm waiting.

The war cabinet

The seminal piece of post-election cabinet analysis hoopla has to be today's story by ace Politico wordsmith's Jim Vandehei and (a personal favorite) Mike Allen.
The article lays out 5 points that can be immediately extrapolated by this morning's press conference where Obama laid out the last major wing of his future White House cabinet.
The points basically are that Obama is an intellectual who cares more about academic credentials and competency than loyalty, he doesn't mind taking big risks, he prefers persuasion to force, he isn't as disdainful of Washington insiders as some of his campaign rhetoric may suggest, and he doesn't mind bending a few campaign promises to fit a political environment.
All of these points can pretty much sum up Obama in a nutshell, and are qualities that he has displayed over and over again, throughout the campaign and elsewhere. But the analysis in this article is superb.

Hopeful?

Atlantic writer Robert Kaplan seems to think that Obama's honeymoon may bleed into the intellectual community and ponders whether we may be on the brink of a worldwide kumbaya moment. Believe it or not, he also actually gives George Bush some credit where it is due.
It's a great read.
I'm a tad bit more skeptical than Mr. Kaplan, but it's good to see good old fashioned idealism rooted in smart analysis still has a place in print journalism these days.

The Obamas continue to charm the pants off of American public

Barack and Michelle Obama did an interview tonight with Barbara Walters. Barack wipes lipstick off of his wife's tooth on camera. Michelle Obama talks about why she's ok with giving up her career. The two argue in a lovey dovey way. Although Barack Obama answered some serious questions about his priorities as president and his cabinet choices at the beginning of the interview, it's this this domestic, back-to-camelot, first family stuff that Americans seem to be thriving on. And why not? The world is a scary place right now. If Michelle Obama is relaxed enough to rib her husband on national tv, then maybe it will remind Americans that even when the economy stinks, there are still joys to be had in American life.

Did Hillary get punked?

The Daily Gotham has some interesting analysis about why Obama picked Hillary to be his SOS.
It makes Obama's choice seem a little nefarious and cold blooded (they may well have been) but it's still a great read nonetheless.

Obama and the markets

Each day this week Obama has held press conferences about the current economic crisis, and one thing I noticed today is that whenever Obama was asked a question and hemmed and hawwed or waffled on something you could notice a slight down tick in the markets, but whenever he answered a question with confidence, the markets went up slightly. All during his brief press conferences.
Overall the markets have been up for the week.

Stealing a page from Ambinder's playbook

On his blog, Mark Ambinder today asked "When was the last time we saw a deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget announced by an incoming administration at a press conference? And before the naming of the secretary of state?"
This is a very good question and one I think I'd elaborate on, I think that the incoming administration is being extremely careful in the face of markets that have gone up or down based on 20 minute press conferences by the president-elect, in an attempt to calm the markets and keep positive attention on his cabinet picks, Obama is putting special emphasis on each pick as someone who has accolades in the economic world, most notably in this case, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
Obama's presser today was wildly paradoxical in some ways as he was touting both intense fiscal restraint as well as advocating deeper spending programs and more Federal involvement in dealing with the current crisis. As a way to ease Congressional Republicans and budget hawks within his own party it appears that Obama made sure a big deal was made about a known penny-pincher heading up his own White House Budget Office, in what is usually a pretty mundane job, and not usually worthy of an announcement to an assembly of the national press.

Obama punts on "Don't ask don't tell"

In a purely political move that shows Obama will not be Clinton II, he defers on a campaign promise to repeal the "don't ask don't tell" ban on gays in the military until an "official" meeting with the Defense Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
If Obama were the one driving this issue, it could be exactly the wedge issue that conservatives can use, much as they did in '93, to discredit the incoming president as too liberal and lead to another rousting by Republicans in the midterm elections in '10. However, Obama, as a clever politician understands that if the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Department, both attempting to rebrand and contemporize the modern military push the repeal, something that has been hinted at recently, then Obama get's both a fulfillment of a campaign promise for a key Democratic Party demographic and is also able to keep his hands clean in the eyes of his more conservative supporters.

Bipartisanship???

Jonathan Martin from Politico has a smart piece about Obama's new cabinet, and the lack of Republican names being floated for key positions.
Aside from Robert Gates, the current Secretary of Defense, almost no Republicans have either been named or speculated on as being included in Obama's cabinet, depsite promises from Obama throught the campaign to "bridge the partisan divide" and include Republicans and conservatives in his circle of advisors.
The announcement this morning of Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers as his Treasury Secretary and Head Economic advisor respectfully, show that Obama will root his plans for economic recovery with center-left pragmatism much in the same way that Bill Clinton tackled a simlar, though less drastic, problem in the early 90's. In fact it could be seen that Obama is ripping a page right out of Clinton's playbook, stacking his cabinet and white house with many Clinton-era leftovers and building his economic recovery message much in the same way Clinton did in '93-'94. Whether the same plans will work this time is left to be seen, as a lot of the dregulation and free-market principles of the 90's are seen by some as the genesis of our current credit and housing crises.
The first test of Obama's economic council may be undoing and correcting some of the same problems and mistakes that some in conservative circles blame them for creating to begin with.

Will the bad economy prevent Obama from achieving the goals he put forth in his campaign platform?

The NYTimes reports today that president-elect Obama may choose not to roll-back the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy. Instead, he may opt to just let the tax cuts expire in 2011. This story may offer a hint at the limits of what Obama can really accomplish during his first four years. Will he really be able to implement change, or will he have to forego his plans and just try to hold down the economy?

Obama and Irony

The NYTimes published an amusing piece on the death of irony.

More cabinet positions

I think the rapid fire drumming out of cabinet positions that the Obama campaign has announced recently should actually be surprising to a lot of people in a way that I don't think has really caught on.
Historically these positions don't generally get announced until at least December, but Obama has structured the key elements of his cabinet just shy of three weeks after getting elected. Something that tells me these wheels have been in motion for a long time.
With powerful posts like Director of Homeland Security and Attorney General showing heavy speculation already and an obsessed media craving more and more insider information, it would be a miracle if the Obama-Biden transition team were able to make one independent announcement.
The famously disciplined and tight lipped Obama campaign, has now become the leaky transition team, with nearly every move receiving intense media scrutiny. Running a campaign is not as easy as running a transition team or an administration, with hundreds of staffers, lawyers, and advisors all becoming privvy to information almost as soon as it happens, and each of them on the speed dial on some of the members of the press.
Still, if it's transparency that Obama has pledged, it doesn't get more open and transparent then this.

Lieberman and Clinton

So to fill the vaccuum of recent the recent news cycle, two stories have floated to the top and are consuming most political coverage.
The first would be the mea culpa offered by Senate Democrats to their campaign nemesis Joe Lieberman, now it shouldn't come as a surprise for anyone that's seen the theme of the past couple weeks unfolding, there hasn't been an iota of retribution (that's reported) from the incoming administration against the former administration or their campaign rivals.
It bodes well for Obama, who has worked tirelessly since elected to project a transition that focuses on deliberation, caution and reconciliation, hoping to create enough good karma to have plenty of political stock going into a tough year.
Obama's going to need as many allies as possible when he begins to focus on mending the economic misfortunes of the country and delivering on the initiatives he spoke about in his campaign, and getting Joe Lieberman on his side, who also has cozied with many prominent Republicans, will make discussion at the big table a little less stressful when compromises need to be made.
The other story, probably much more prominent than the above story that has received most of the coverage and is at the front of many politico's minds is Obama's (probable, eventual?) choice of Sen. Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State, now this has already been discussed on this blog, so I'm just going to link two excellent articles that discuss this in good detail.
The first is Ben Smith from Politico's brand new story on the pick which basically goes over the pros vs. cons and sets the agenda for what the possible pick means for the future of a potentially united Democratic Party/Administration.
The second is a very poignanat article from The New York Observer that basically says in not so many words that the amount of coverage and reporting done on Hillary's potential pick is what will get her the job.

Hillary Clinton and the Secretary of State

This has probably been the most surprising story of the past week or so, as the media has become obsessed with the prospect of President-Elect Obama choosing her to fill probably the most vital role in his administration besides Vice President.
I'm not sure what to make of it, it clearly seems like it could easily be a story pushed by the media to fill vacant news cycles, a story churned by a press that has become bored after an extremely intense and historic campaign filled with drama and intrigue.
It could also be that Obama, who has stated "Team of Rivals" by Doris Kearns Goodwin about Lincoln's presidential cabinet as one of his influences, has taken that Lincolnesque touch seriously and would choose to keep close someone who he fought bitterly against for almost a year and more intensely for the 6 months of the primary season earlier this year.
Already news sources are churning out hints and clues, much as they did with the veep fever that consumed their coverage before the national conventions, stories about the vetting of Bill Clinton have recently popped up, a sign that Obama may be serious about adding Hillary's talents to his administration.
Granted, Obama will not be able to tackle a real foreign policy agenda throughout the first part of his administration as he will be very busy addressing the current economic crisis and the Secretary of State will probably be delegated a lot of responsibility in burnishing his image abroad, in this respect, Hillary Clinton would be a good choice as she lends a lot of name recognition and foreign policy credentials, as well as being a leading public figure. However Bill Clinton, as her spouse, would be severely restricted and probably would have to remain on a tight leash as "no-drama" Obama would not want anything to come back on him that could potentially embarrass him or his administration.
But now that this story has consumed the public spotlight it almost seems as if both Obama and Hillary have been painted into a corner. Everytime the Clintons are in the media spotlight, it becomes a reminder of their bitterly fought primary battle and media speculation abounds, and if Hillary is chosen, instead of someone less public but perhaps more qualified then he would already have to answer questions before he takes office, and will have to fight over media coverage with her inside his administration.
It also puts Hillary in a bad spot also, because she can't look like she's defying the President-elect and refusing an offer, that would look bad for both the Democratic Party and the incoming administration.
Obama has already packed his transition team with many former Clinton staffers and allies, and much of his base may not recognize this as "change" or recognize him trying to put his own stamp on his presidency.
It'll be an interesting week, Obama was tight lipped on his cabinet choices tonight on 60 minutes, and I believe there will continue to be mounting scrutiny as time goes on.

Barack & Michelle Obama do 60 Minutes

Well, I think it's time to thaw out the old blog. Like J. mentioned, it's frozen in a pretty awesome moment, but time marches on and the Obama presidency is too historic not to continue blogging about.

Tonight Barack and Michelle Obama did an interview with 60 Minutes. In the midst of a major economic depression, listening to the president-elect and the first lady discuss what kind of puppy to get for their children and whether or not to move Mrs. Obama's mother in to the White House was a hopeful reminder that the Obama's could relate to the American people. Michelle Obama razzing her husband for never doing the dishes and the pictures of Barack Obama's dinky Washington DC apartment seem to further seal the deal.

The tone of the interview was light hearted and fun. For those who didn't vote for Obama, I think they would have a difficult time denying the charm of this man and his young family.

CONGRATULATIONS PRESIDENT OBAMA!

And now, this blog will officially change topics. On to the Obama presidency and a new generation in American politics!

It's over

CNN calls Ohio for Obama.
There's no electoral path for McCain to win.

CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama

A HUGE loss for McCain, the only blue state he really stood a chance in, without Pennsylvania he has a very narrow path to victory, and the fact that they called it so early may be a sobering reminder for the McCain camp of how much the underdogs they are tonight.

It's on!!

Let the livebloggin begin, detailed analysis right here!

Less than 12 hours to go until the nation votes, predictions

Alright so like all armchair pundits, I'm ready to make some predictions, since I don't have any glossy maps spotted with shimmering crimson and dark navy to make it look all official you'll have to use your imagination, if you want a shiny map with bold colors, go hang out with John King.
I've been following the polls extremely closely this election, with most of my data being sound and reliable, based on most of the recent polling numbers, as well as early voting numbers, historical turnout, ground operations, and party registration. With the exception of a couple toss up states that could go either way, most of these predictions are safe.

Alabama - 9 EV's - McCain + 20
Alaska - 3 EV's - McCain +15
Arizona - 10 EV's - McCain +9
Arkansas - 6 EV's - McCain +12
California - 55 EV's - Obama +23
Colorado - 9 EV's - Obama +5
Connecticut - 7 EV's - Obama + 17
District Of Columbia - 3 EV's - Obama +61
Delaware - 3 EV's - Obama + 20
Florida - 27 EV's - Obama +2
Georgia - 15 EV's - McCain +3
Hawaii - 4 EV's - Obama + 25
Idaho - 4 EV's - McCain +21
Illinois - 21 EV's - Obama +25
Indiana - 11 EV's - McCain +>1
Iowa - 7 EV's - Obama +10
Kansas - 6 EV's - McCain +14
Kentucky - 8 EV's - McCain +12
Louisiana - 9 EV's - McCain +11
Maine - 4 EV's - Obama +13
Maryland - 10 EV's - Obama +21
Massachussetts - 12 EV's - Obama +17
Michigan - 17 EV's - Obama +9
Minnesota - 10 EV's - Obama +12
Mississippi - 6 EV's - McCain +24
Missouri - 11 EV's - McCain +1
Montana - 3 EV's - McCain +4
Nebraska - 5 EV's - McCain +13
Nevada - 5 EV's - Obama +3
New Hampshire - 4 EV's - Obama +7
New Jersey - 15 EV's - Obama +16
New Mexico - 5 EV's - Obama +5
New York - 31 EV's - Obama +24
North Carolina - 15 EV's - Obama +>1
North Dakota - 3 EV's - McCain +8
Ohio - 20 EV's - Obama +2
Oklahoma - 7 EV's - McCain +25
Oregon - 7 EV's - Obama +12
Pennsylvania - 21 EV's - Obama +5
Rhode Island - 4 EV's - Obama +23
South Carolina - 8 EV's - McCain +8
South Dakota - 3 EV's McCain +9
Tennessee - 11 EV's - McCain +13
Texas - 34 EV's - McCain +10
Utah - 5 EV's - McCain + 27
Vermont - 3 EV's - Obama +22
Virginia - 13 EV's - Obama +4
Washington - 11 EV's - Obama +12
West Virgina - 5 EV's - McCain +6
Wisconsin - 10 EV's - Obama +7
Wyoming - 3 EV's - McCain + 26

Popular vote: Obama 53 - McCain 46 - Other 1
Total electoral votes: Obama 353 McCain 185

States to look out for that may be different than my predictions: Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada

Important times tomorrow night: (Pacific Time)

4:00 PM Virginia, Indiana, Georgia Polls close (Georgia and Indiana will be bellweathers for most of the night, if Obama wins either of these, expect an electoral landslide in his favor, If McCain maintains big margins here, then it will be a closer election then people originally thought)

4:30 PM Ohio Polls close

5:00 PM Pennsylvania and Florida Polls close

From here it will just be a huge wash of data for the rest of the night, but the six states I just listed will pretty much decide which way the election will go.

48 hours until election day

The final 48 hours of the campaign show the RNC (some within the Republican party would say finally) going up with an advertisement featuring Obama's infamous former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, the ad is basically a greatest hits of all of Wright's now famous diatribes.
Most would conclude that since it seems to be a small buy, targeting mostly rural Pennsylvania, it was merely released so that the media would showcase this ad, and again be able to spotlight Obama's ties to the Rev. Wright just before the election. Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod said today they had an ad ready in case the Republicans ever did an ad showcasing the pastor, but that they won't release it, thinking that whatever damage this ad could cause this late into the campaign will be minimal.
Another consequence of this decision by the Republicans means that they're devoting more resources to big media buys and advertisement instead of devoting more time and money into the infrastructure of a robust GOTV effort. Many within the media believe that it was the ground game of the GOP in 2004 that secured Bush his re-election, and I'm willing to say there has probably been more than one conversation in the upper echelons of Obama's campaign management that has outlined a possible way to mimic those efforts, and I think this may be what ultimately seals the deal for Obama
His ground game has been unprecedented, and if he does win on Tuesday historians and pundits will be laying out four things that were the key to his victory: 1) His long primary battle with Hillary Clinton that allowed his campaign to test strategy, introduce the candidate, and begin ground operations in almost every single state. 2) His huge spending advantage and the minimal backlash he faced in the American people's minds for going back on his pledge to not take public financing. 3) The economic crisis being seen by the vast majority of the American's as the resullt of failed Republican policies, and 4) His ability to energize the liberal base, as well as conservative working class Democrats in a way that only Bill Clinton was able to replicate earlier. These 4 factors, most notably the last, are going to be what delivers him this election.
Already there are reports from all over the country of Democrats having a very large advantage in early voting, and McCain really needs to do a lot of finger crossing on Tuesday hoping he can make up those margins.

Who are these people?

Marc Ambinder included a profile of the approximately 8% of voters who claim to still be undecided. The undecided voters are mainly white, male, and over the age of 45 and living in the Mid-West and the South. The majority of remaining undecided voters are also republicans or independents.

What I would like to know (and what wasn't included in the profile), is the question of whether the remaining undecided voters are people who just don't follow politics/ current events? Are they cynics who can't stand either candidate? Or are the republicans having an identity crisis who dislike McCain but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat?

I guess we'll find out on Tuesday!

5 More Days Until Election Day!

I can't wait!

The Socialism tag

The McCain campaign's last gambit in the closing week of the election has been amplifying lately with blatant attempts to label Obama as a radical socialist.
The other recent attempts to paint Obama as an out of touch radical, as with Bill Ayers and ACORN.
I don't think the Obama as a socialist label will stick though, Obama has spent a lot of time talking about tax cuts and has won over the working class consistently in most of the recent polls.
I think that the McCain campaign should've been pushing their recent message of the Democratic Party dominating all branches of government would have been a much better sale to the American people and also would've come across as less desperate and would've been able to drive home a reasonable message the American people could get behind. Americans are generally in favor of a divided party government, and almost all polls are showing another Democratic sweep of congress, and if McCain had been able to shape this message a lot earlier, I think his chances this election would be a lot stronger.

Today's polls 10/22

There's been hardly any movement in the polls recently, Obama still leads in key swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Vriginia, and Colorado, as well as maintaining an average of about a 5 point lead nationally. His path to 270 electoral votes seems to get wider and wider whereas McCain's seems to be narrower by the day.
It appears that the McCain campaign's negative robocalls and attempts to continue the Bill Ayers and ACORN narrative have not had the hold on the average voter that they thought
It's hard to see anything happen between now and election day that could pull McCain in the direction he needs to go, and anything they do at this point anyway would be seen by the media as "desperate."
The election is now less than a month away and already early voting has suggested that there could be another year of record turnout, especially amongst the demographics that the Obama campaign has microtargeted: Young people, African-Americans, and hispanics, key demographics that will no doubt probably go down as being responsible for his election. Early voting in many states has already seen some record numbers, with these early voters drifting Democratic according to most analysis.
McCain needs the base that Bush rallied in 2004 to come out in equally impressive numbers to keep it a nailbiter, and I think his campaign needs to focus on GOTV efforts and spend almost all the money he has left on his ground game. I could see a few of the states, such as North Carolina and Indiana and maybe even Florida and Ohio squeaking into the red category again this election day if he focuses on those efforts hard enough.

Media focus back on Sarah Palin

The hockey mom who has claimed to be just as average as everybody else may have betrayed her middle class persona. The big story today was about the GOP spending $150K to outfit Sarah Palin and her family, a sum equivalent to the worth of many average American's homes.

This story has been airing all over the celebrity news shows like Extra and Access Hollywood. Will Palin's supporters call her out as a phony? Either way, this story probably won't be helping out McCain...

Today's polls 10/20

Well it's almost exactly two weeks until election day and the polling that has come out today has been very good news for the Obama campaign.
Last week I said I wanted to wait a week or so to see if there would be movement in the polls in light of the McCain campaign's all out kitchen sink attack on Barack Obama.
Well there has been a tiny bit of movement and overall I'd say Obama has come down nationally about 1-3 points, and still looks to be breaking 350 electoral votes if the state polling is analyzed. McCain may have no other chances to try and change the American People's minds, and the elusive "game changer" may never materialize for him. Obama's campaign is hitting McCain hard on the economy and health care and they have just reported a massive fundraising number that will allow his campaign almost limitless spending in the next two weeks on advertising, canvassing, and get out the vote efforts, as well as unleashing the most impressive volunteer army any campaign has ever had.
I think these are the elements that are maintaining his lead, not neccessarily that McCain's message has failed, indeed I think if anything it has further polarized the base of the Republican Party the same way they felt about Clinton in 1992, with fringe elements of that party equating Obama to a terrorist, a socialist, or both.
I was tempted to write a post last month about whether Obama's ground game would be any benefit to him, as it didn't make much of a difference during the primaries, but then again, no ground game like this has ever been unleashed in modern politics.
As much as Obama tries to tie McCain to Bush, it was this way of campaigning that won Bush two terms in office, so credit needs to be given where it's due.

More on the Colin Powell endorsement...

Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama today could not have been more eloquent or thoughtful. If the rest of the GOP had modeled their tone and rhetoric after after Colin Powell these past 4 years, John McCain would probably have a much better chance of winning right now.

The Powell endorsement

This morning on "Meet The Press" Former Secretary of State under George Bush, Colin Powell, endorsed Barack Obama for president saying he would vote, but not campaign for him.
Even though the public doesn't usually pay too much attention to endorsements like this in terms of affecting their decision to vote, what this will do for Obama is likely dominate the media coverage going into next week, with pundits and surrogates going back and forth on what the endorsement means. This is a bad time for McCain to be losing news cycles, and last week the coverage of the hostility of his supporters at his rallies to Obama and his inability to produce a "game-changer" during the debate is what most people were talking about, further producing forward momentum for Obama.
After last week McCain needed something desperately to turn around his chances, or at least create some tightening in the polls, especially as the Republican attacks get more and more negative in the hope to produce something that will stick in the American People's minds.
Powell's endorsement this morning was less about Obama in terms of readiness to lead or simple experience, but seemed more to be about character, judgment and demeanor, the same qualities that have gotten Obama to this point in his political career. And although Powell didn't say anything negative about McCain himself, the heartfelt stories that Powell told, such as the muslim soldier who died in Iraq and is buried in Arlington National Cemetery, to his very vocal abhorrence to the tactics being used by the GOP, as well as what he called the party's "narrowing" over the past 8 years, created a kind of zeitgeist feel to it, as most of what he said seems to be the conventional wisdom right now as to why 2008 will most likely be a huge realigning election, swinging the political pendulum to the left.

Sarah Palin to appear on SNL tonight.

Can't wait!

Debate Round Up

Well...tonight was McCain's last big chance to take down Obama and I think he blew it. Other than the now famous Joe the Plumber, I think McCain's biggest contribution to the debate tonight was his hideous array of smirks, air quotes, eye rolls, and yes, weird flicky tongue moves.

Obama kept his cool throughout and stuck to his talking points. I don't think he lost any ground tonight. In fact, I think McCain just lost the election.

J, thanks for liveblogging!!! Obviously, I wasn't able to pull away from the television early to go to my class.

Closing remarks

McCain ends on a good note, touting his reformer credentials as well as his record and talking directly to the camera for the first time.
Throws the word "trust" in there.
Obama also ends well, "fundamental change," pitches directly to working and middle class Americans, hits some good notes of optimism in there, it's no "shining city on the hill speech," but he did his job. He didn't sit on his lead this debate, he engaged McCain but was respectful and I think McCain's body language and sarcasm really betrayed him tonight and lost him his last chance to change the direction of the race.


The Joe The Plumber remarks are already going around on PBS, I'm sure it'll be the new buzzword until election day.

McCain gives a good answer on education

Sticks to his guns, "you can't throw money at it," I would say McCain was winning at the beginning, but he really collapsed at the end, Republicans are groaning that this thing is almost over and unless a stage light falls on Obama right now, he'll be the next President Of The United States.

"I think we need both"

A very safe answer Obama gives a lot.

ROE V. WADE

Did McCain just use air quotes to Obama? McCain should have been nailing this issue to the wall. Ultimate wedge issue here, he could've hit a home run.
Obama's answer was a little weak, but he recovered a little with his anecdote about the woman who sued for equal pay.
McCain is going for the throat on abortion. He could seal the deal here.
Nope he ruined it with the air quotes again.

JOE THE FUCKING PLUMBER

Saturday Night Live writers were just handed this one on a platter.

HEALTH CARE!!

Obama stays on his main talking points, democrats usually win the health care debate and although against Hillary, Obama was usually on losing ground, here he shines, looking right into the camera.
McCain brings up the fine again and ruins a great run by attacking Obama again, it's really not his night.
Obama attacks McCain too towards the end, also ruins a good run.

The energy question

Both candidates stay close to the chest, Obama wraps up his support in the auto industry and amongst unions "the Americans invented the auto industry". "We need to protect workers who try to organize."
McCain's patronizing of Obama is not flattering for him, he needs to be breaking stereotypes tonight, not perpetuating them.

McCain's tongue juts

When someone points them out to you, they're almost mesmerizing.

McCain turns autism into an argument about taxes

Ouch.

Scheiffer with the good questions

The running mate question is good and gives Obama the chance to tout Joe Biden as the champion of the working class and hero of Scranton, PA.
McCain says great things about Sarah Palin, and makes great points. If she hadn't been getting the intense media scrutiny and turned into a running joke by Tina Fey then it would've been a convincing argument.

AYERS!!!

Obama beats it back with a stick namedropping the president of the chicago tribune and really hits a home run on his "associations."
McCain brings up old talking points, and can't really seem to make anything to stick.
Definitely not the game changer McCain needed on this issue.

More lively than the past debates

This is a barn burner compared to the town hall.

Scheiffer asks about the negative tone

McCain says he regrets the negativity, brings up his town hall idea, makes some good points, I don't think the public financing point was neccessary though, you can't call someone out when the question denounces negativity.
Obama's answer here is okay, although McCain hasn't run 100% negative ads, that's untrue. A good question by Scheiffer doesn't get good answers, and the candidates just use it as a forum to attack eachother.
Viewers are probably rolling their eyes.

McCain admits he can balance the budget in 4 years

He's gonna take a hit in the op-eds for that one but he got a good zinger in there with the "I'm not President Bush, if you wanted to run against President Bush you should've ran 4 years ago."
McCain took it to Obama pretty good asking him to his face if he has ever challenged his party, but Obama responded cooly with a nice prepared answer, which McCain seems a little miffed by.

McCain can't admit spending cuts either

Dude, no one cares about earmarks.

Obama still can't admit any spending cuts

A lot of this is deja vu. Bob Scheiffer so far hasn't asked anything that hasn't been covered before and the candidates are very much in their safe zones.

McCain accuses Obama of waging class war

McCain's poker face isn't really shining tonight, he looks angry and annoyed, like he shouldn't have to lower himself to be in the same room as Obama.
These are the things people take from them when they watch debates.

Joe The Plumber

Really?

Taxes. . .

Hashed and rehashed, let's break some new ground guys.

Starting out on the current financial crisis

Is there any other issue?

Liveblogging the debate. . . Again

Let's get it on.

McCain decides to turn the page...

Forget about Bill Ayers, it's time to talk about the issues Americans really care about... like fraudulent voter registrations submitted by ACORN? For all the backlash Bill Kristol received after suggesting earlier this week that McCain fire his campaign staff, I think he might have been right...

Both campaign's digging in and stickin to their strategy

So the Obama and McCain campaigns have started to lay out the startegies they think will win for them in November, Obama thinks that running with the economy is his winning strategy and the McCain campaign thinks running ads with Bill Ayers and questioning Obama's character harder than they have this whole campaign is their way to victory.
There haven't been any national polls that have come out lately that show that the Ayers issue has really sunk in with the average voter, but it's still a little soon to tell, and I would say that there's probably some tightening of the polls that will inevitably happen, since negative advertisements and negative campaigns do work.
I will be looking forward to the polling this week, as well as the message both campaigns drive. I don't think Obama will stray from the economy, since he's seen his pollin numbers soar since the economic crisis, and I doubt the McCain campaign, desperate and behind in almost all of the recent polling, will fare any better than they have already. Although The Republicans have dug up some successful October surprises in the past.

Obama's got campaign finance funding burning a hole in his pocket...

What's a boy to do?

He's blowing some serious cash on a 30 minute prime time infomercial on October 29th. According the the NYTimes, the informercial will air on NBC and CBS.

The content of the infomercial is currently unknown.

I hope they give Ross Perot a cameo.

Today's polls 10/8

Well Barack Obama has a pretty undisputed lead right now, there's no amiguity in the polls, the real clear politics electoral vote tracker has him at about 364 to McCain's 174 (keep in mind Bob Dole only got 159 electoral votes in 1996.)
With states like North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada most recently falling into the Obama column solely based on current polling numbers, the map is beginning to look startlingly blue. I for one would still call those three states pure toss ups, only because the polling is so close, and no one is going to know how the Obama ground game will produce votes versus the underlying racial factor that a lot of pundits and media have been discussing, and to be fair, is a legitimate question as all three of those states are for the most part, historically conservative.
Things are undeniably looking grim for McCain, it's all over the news and in the papers, Obama has the wind at his back now, and I'm sure his advisors are telling him not to change a single thing that he's doing, ensuring he continues to look even tempered and confident in the face of the growing financial crisis.
McCain on the other hand has run out of options, he has to go nuclear, and his all out character assault on Obama recently is really the last card that he can play, unfortunately for him it plays into the media narrative that Obama has really been driving that McCain is desperate and erratic at a time when the country is looking for inspiration and confidence.
All of the polling that was released today has been following the trends of the last week, the states where Obama is ahead, he maintains his lead, and the states where he is not ahead, he is seeing his margins growing closer. It being this close to the election there are almost too many polls daily to be discussed, but what we can do is point out a few states that only a month ago looked out of reach for him. States like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Between those three states alone there's a whopping 50 electoral college votes, almost 10 percent of the total electoral college, and it's hard to see any McCain strategy where he can find a path to victory without winning at least 2, if not all 3 of those states.

The Last Question

New Hampshire wants to know: What don't you know and how will you learn it?

Obama's answer? Ask my wife. He then uses his background story to make a case that the American dream must continue to be attainable. Overall, a good closing statement.

McCain says he doesn't know the same things everyone else doesn't know. McCain uses his background story to make the case that he thinks America is a great country.

I call the the debate for Obama tonight! He was ahead in the polls before the debate and I think that McCain didn't do much with his face time with the nation to make much of an impression.

PS: The McCain campaign is complaining that this was not a true town hall format. Does that mean that they're trying to blame the format for McCain's weak performance tonight?

Marc Ambinder's liveblogging is good too...

how many more questions are we going to see about Israel?

deja vu much?

There's 10 more minutes of the debate but...

I've got to say I think McCain fell flat on this one.

Can we get some new debate questions?

It seems like the same questions get asked over and over?

Brokaw just asked a question about Afghanistan and McCain is talking about Iraq. I think he just realized that he lost track of what he was saying...

McCain and Obama rehash the same arguments from the last debates in talking about Pakistan.

Obama hits McCain on Iraq

he calls him George Bush's cheerleader!

healthcare? a priviledge, a right, or a responsibility?

good question!

McCain says that healthcare is a responsibility of employers.
Obama says healthcare is a right.

Tom Brokaw is getting pissy about the candidates ignoring the time limit.

Obama tells McCain the Straight Talk Express lost a wheel

I think McCain is about to take the gloves off.

McCain: "Social security is not that tough to fix." and Medicare? Let's start a commission.

McCain is trying to pull a Hillary Clinton and say the Obama is all rhetoric. It didn't work for Clinton, will it work for McCain?

McCain says Obama is like Herbert Hoover...

McCain has a "read my lips" moment, NO NEW TAXES...

What sacrifices will the next president ask americans to make?

McCain: Let's eliminate inefficient government programs! LAME... not exactly Jimmy Carter asking Americans to put on a sweater. I sure will miss those inefficient government programs...

Obama: the first to bring up 9/11 (where's Rudy Guiliani right now?). McCain is wondering around stage behind Obama... OK, he's asking all americans to examine how they're using energy. That's a pretty good one, Jimmy Carter would be proud.

McCain is starting to get pissy

He's clenching his jaw. Obama is smiling at him. I think McCain is having a hard time being tough on Obama with him sitting right there.

Obama is going to continue associating McCain with George Bush

McCain buzz word for the night

If you vote for him, he will buy your bad mortgage!

Is this like the jr high class president saying he will lobby for less homework?

Obama defends himself

He was FOR regulation of the housing crisis. McCain was for de-regulation.

It's a fight over who loves Fannie Mae the most!

Obama just tried to brush McCain's character attacks aside - voters care about what's going on in America, they don't want to listen to politicians squabble with each other.

Boo-yah!

McCain tries to pin the mortgage crisis on the dems

he's going after Obama tonight. he's looking a little tired and old.

Will Obama bring some more enthusiasm?

Obama buzz word for tonight:

MIDDLE CLASS

Obama gets a chance to say what he will do to help seniors during the financial crisis

and... he doesn't quite answer the question. What does he say? Tax cuts! Oversight!

McCain is old, will he have a better answer?

Energy independence? WTF?
No taxes?
Now he's talking about China.

McCain says he wants the federal gov't to buy up all the bad mortgages and renegotiate them with homeowners. That doesn't sound very small government-y.

No dice on getting an answer on the first question.

The candidates walked out on stage

it's red tie versus blue tie...

Poised over keyboard and ready to liveblog the 2nd presidential debate

5 minutes!

With friends like these. . .

The former CEO of Bank Of America Hugh McColl, just endorsed Barack Obama's economic plan and the candidate himself in an op-ed to the Charlotte Observer in the gentleman's native North Carolina.
The endorsement is warm and flattering, and Mr. McColl speaks very highly of Obama's intellect, judgment and calm demeanor during the current economic crisis.
I suppose this is good for Obama in North Carolina, which is home to the banking giant Mr. McColl was formerly in charge of. As well as many other national financial institutions, some of which are failing.
Whether anyone even notices this, Obama I think has been smart to constantly making it seem like he's always surrounding himself with smart economists like Austan Goolsbee, and potent investment sages like Warren Buffet and Jason Rubin, perhaps the multitude of "economic meetings" Obama has had as of late with his large team of economic advisors may be why voters seem to be trusting him more on the economy; and this may be another notch he can add to his belt of high power executive endorsements.
Still, it seems a little crass in the wake of a global financial meltdown, that high ranking executives and wealthy oligarchs, largely to blame for the crisis, are making such endorsements to begin with.

Obama's weak response to the Ayers attack

Obama's campaign defended him this morning and all throughout the day by saying that he didn't even know Ayers was a radical when he first met him, as well as downplaying even more the ties that the two individuals have.
I think this is absolutely lame, for a campaign that has had months to come up with better, more airtight explanations to ease voter concerns (remember this come up during the April Democratic Primary Debate in Pennsylvania) and they HAD to know that McCain would use the Ayers connection sooner or later, this is the best they can come up with? Arguably the most disciplined and effective political campaign in modern times has some lame-duck plausible deniability spin?
Palin and McCain, with the help of a willing media aching for more attack politics to feed their evening news cycles, have been hammering this point home today. No doubt, if this is the best they can do (as well as a "you know bad people too" argument) we will be hearing about this story MUCH more.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright came up every single day between now and Novemeber 4th.
Who knows if this will come up tomorrow during the debate, no doubt John McCain will try and throw in a few "who is this guy really?" jabs. Or maybe Obama is saving his best zingers for tomorrow night, either way, the race is getting into the deep end of the mud pit, and everyone is going to get dirty.

McCain tries to change the subject, who wants to talk about the boring old economic crisis?

The McCain campaign launched an attempt to change the subject this weekend by targeting Obama for his past association with Bill Ayers. The NYTimes recounts the relationship here. According to the article, the two men crossed paths on a few occasions where they both worked on education projects in Chicago and later when Obama's predecessor in the Illinois state senate introduced Obama to influential democrats at a meet and greet held at Ayers home.

The McCain campaign is desperate to focus the remainder of the campaign on Obama, but will Americans and the media respond to this kind of character smear while everyone is so focused on the economy? We'll see how it plays out this week...

SNL spoofs VP debate

Sarah Palin is God's gift to Saturday Night Live:

VP debate round-up

The VP debate just ended, and to say the least, it wasn't too exciting.

Joe Biden held back from attacking Palin directly and focused entirely on John McCain. The bar was set extremely low for Sarah Palin and I say she passed even though she managed to avoid directly answering all of the questions posed to her. Palin appeared extremely nervous at times and had a hard time straying from her prepared talking points. Joe Biden took some time to wake up, I think compared to Sarah Palin, Joe Biden might be viewed as having a tendency to talk "above" average americans. Personally, I find her folksy speaking style just plain irritating.

I don't think the debate was a game changer. I can't wait to see SNL this weekend!

Final thoughts

The final thought here is not how badly Palin was beaten, because the CW going into the debate was that she was going to get beaten, but whether each did their candidate any harm, and I don't think any did, in fact they both met expectations. Biden didn't put his foot in his mouth as bad as he could've, and Palin remembered her geography lessons.
However, the final statements were definitely kind of a microcosm of the whole debate. Palin kinda rambled and mashed words together and Biden appealed directly to middle class Americans, talking passionately about the economy, and other bread and buter issues, this one goes to Joe.

Biden finishing strong

Took it to town on health care.

Biden get's emotional

Wonder how that one will go over.

"Energy producing state"

It's been about the fifth time Palin's said that.

Palin rambles about vice presidential constitutional definition

Really came off weak here, didn't answer the question and sounded a little ignorant.

Palin on Biden's wife

"God bless her, her reward is in heaven, right?" That is the sound of every teacher in America voting for Barack Obama. Wow. What a mistake.

Palin really trying to not be associated with George Bush

Her attempt to break that argument and move on though was pretty weak.

Biden needs to middle class it up a little more

He was a lot stronger in the beginning.

Stop saying "team of mavericks"

Please.

But

Palin's job isn't to outshine Biden, it's to pass a threshold. Much like Obama in last week's debate.

Biden digs in the knife

Not just tying McCain to Bush, but to Dick Cheney, ouch.

Palin such a Washington outsider

That comment was kinda weak.

Biden trying not to look irritated

He's making a lot of weird breathing noises.

Bosniacs?

Whoops.

Two times so far

Biden refers to himself in the third person.

Although

Palin answered every question Katie Couric gave her and got raked over the coals for her rambling non-responses. Now she's just ignoring questions, probably will get better favorables for it.

Palin pushing Maverick

If you don't want to sound scripted that's not the way to go.

The Israel lovefest is creepy

South Florida cheers.

Biden speaking in 3rd person?

"No one in the senate has been a stronger advocate to Israel than Joe Biden." A Bob Dole moment?

Palin meets or beats expectations

But they're probably the lowest in history.

George W. Bush fans are stoked

Palin is making all the arguments that he's been saying for the past 3 years, again, playing to the base.

Palin not saying anything really new

She lists off her own axis of evil.

Biden's strategy

Take freewheeling attacks against John McCain so that Palin has to go off script to try and defend him and wait for her to ramble or gaffe.

Iraq

I don't think Palin should refer to McCain as a "great American," and here comes the "who doesn't support the troops" argument. Palin nails the surge argument, but falters a little bit towards the end. Biden and Obama are on friendly terms with the Iraq argument and Biden nails his talking points.
Palin again tries to rally the base claiming Obama and Biden want to wave a "white flag of surrender," after that gem she really starts to ramble a bit.

Same sex issues

The ultimate wedge issue cometh, Palin has gay friends and supports traditional marriage, Biden does too. Tragedy averted, talking points stuck too.

Palin mispronounces "nuclear"

Liberals cringe.

Drill, baby, drill

Palin's turn to play to the base.

Climate change: Biden

Playing to the base here, turns it into a clean energy debate, good move.

Climate change

Palin's really hacking this answer.

East coast politicians?

Here comes the scary elitist liberals vs. the downhome people like you and me "real Americans" in small towns.

Watching the debate on C-Span

The only way to go, split screen the whole time, Biden's not liking Palin's "look how spunky I am!" Answers and you can see his reactions to everything she says.

Palin rushing

She needs to slow down, it's sounding a little too scripted.

Tina Fey is stoked

Sarah Palin is having a hard time staying on subject, and seems to be having some of the problems she's had during her interviews this week.

Biden on health care

The ultimate bridge to nowhere?

Sarah Palin on health care

Republicans don't poll well on this issue, she should've avoided it.

Middle class

Biden's taking a lesson from Obama here, ease voter worries on your tax plans and hammer out the words middle class every other sentence. I'd like to see a count on how many times he says it.

Biden needs to be more exciting

He needs to be more passionate and emotional, he's at his best when he's really letting loose, another thing he's probably been prepped on.

Initial reactions

I think Biden has been prepped to keep it short.

Palin is being a little too folksy, the "maverick" and "joe six pack" and "hockey mom" and "darn right" drops are a little cringing.

Liveblogging the debate

Let's get it on.

VP debate tonight

The VP debate is just 90 minutes away. Will Sarah Palin exceed the low expectations that have been set for her? Will Joe Biden manage to come out without a major gaffe? I think one thing's for sure, regardless of how the republican VP candidate performs, the right will likely blame Gwen Ifel's perceived Obama bias as a major reason for a poor performance from Sarah Palin...

Back to the partisan divide

Both McCain and Obama have tried to play the "reach across the aisle" card heavily this election, especially earlier on in the summer, before the economic crisis hardened partisan lines and both sides dug in, ready to unleash the final bombardments as the election nears it's conclusion. (Normally congress would be in recess right now as many members of the house and senate are up for reelection, and the ones that are not are out campaigning and raising money for the ones who are.)
Unfortunately for everyone, the financial "bailout" or "rescue," or whatever you want to call it has put a huge dent in anyone's plans to hit the stump this week for their party, and this is partly the reason why there's so much tension on the hill this week.
Very early in his campaign, Obama had said that he wanted to "put an end to the partisan divide" of the '90's and present (Receiving outright mockery from the Clinton campaign as a result.) He ran as a fresh faced idealist and outsider, ready to unlock congress and get everyone together at one big table to work out plans and ideas that worked for everyone, his mantra last year was that the best ideas would be put forth, not just the most liberal or conservative (remember the Obamacans?). Nowadays he seems to be humming a different tune. take for instance an interview today he did with John Berman of ABC. When Berman tells Obama he's a "persuasive guy" and asks him if he could've done more to help yesterday's failed vote, Obama in his answer namedrops Democratic congressional leaders and admits that he didn't call any House Republicans lamenting, "I tend not to be that persuasive on that side of the aisle."
Now, whether Republicans pounce on this comment is left to be seen, I for one don't think it would even be that effective, at least until someone can name a single rank-and-file House Democrat that McCain contacted this week.

Palin interview continued

Watch CBS Videos Online

Time to party like it's 1929

An observation: Who was the PR genius over at the Secretary Of The Treasury's office or at the white house that allowed today's bill in congress, and all of last week's discussion to use the word "bailout?" How can you spin that word positively?

Today's polls 9/29

Well it's been a while since I've done a polling analysis but I wanted to wait until there was some smoke clearing after the debate and also see where the numbers may move after the financial crisis news begins to become more sobering to average voters.
I've been scratching my head a little bit recently as some places that are generally more working class and may be hit harder by the economy we see McCain holding an edge or making some inroads, especially in places like Ohio, where the latest Fox News/Rasmussen poll shows McCain holding a slim 1 point lead. This is a little odd, only because McCain is trailing by big numbers in some of the national daily trackers and it looks like Obama carrying a 4-7 point lead, with today's Gallup showing Obama at +8, his biggest numbers in months. Ohio generally holds to the CW, and as a bellweather state seems to keep it's own numbers pretty close to the polls so it's kind of an anamoly that with McCain's numbers at his worst, he still holds on in Ohio. Or maybe he just has the state locked up. The coming days will reveal more here I think.
Obama seems to have pulled ahead in the oddest place though, North Carolina, which has showed McCain holding roughly a 3-5 point lead throughout the campaign and looked generally out of reach for Obama, has now had two reliable polls in a row showing him +2 there. North Carolina would be a great pickup for Obama, he's defintely not given up the state, and he continues to advertise heavily there, visit the state regularly, and has opened over 20 field offices across the state. If Obama can hold his lead there, and also in neighboring Virgina, where fresh polls show him with his strongest leads yet (+3, and +5 respectfully in two days) then losing states like Ohio and Florida, where McCain maintains his edge, would not be a deathblow to his campaign.
With Obama's national numbers surging, it seems he has a much bigger map to play with now, and can again force McCain to play defense in his advertising, and force McCain also to make desperate gambles (see: campaign suspension) while Obama continues to grow his ground game and command the issues going into the final stretch of the election.
More good polling news for Obama continues to come out of Michigan and Pennsylvania, places where McCain was attempting some offense, but with some polls showing Michigan in the double digits and two separate polls from Pennsylvania showing Obama at +7 and +8, McCain's two hopes to erode Obama on his own turf seems to be fading.
I predict Obama's polling lead will stay the same, maybe the race will tighten up a little bit with the upcoming debates and as people take in the congressional strikeout that happened this weekend, but if the election were held today, Obama would have it in a walk.